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The temporal occurrence and forecasting of landsliding in the European Community

Objective

To study the temporal aspects of instability of natural slopes, with special attention to human, climatic and tectonic factors leading to instability, and to determine the frequency and the magnitude of landslide events. To clarify the role of each triggering factor in the complex combinations of causes leading to landsliding and to bring out their temporal properties, at different time scales and in different climatic zones in Europe.
A research programme was implemented to:
describe the frequency and magnitude of events and of different types of landslide;
describe the current statistical distribution of European landslides in the context of historical records and the time scales of global environmental change;
assess the external causal factors of landsliding, their temporal properties and the degree to which they explain the temporal variations in landslide activity;
use the empirical data to establish predictive models of landslide occurrence. The researchers used the same methodologies for the collection, storage and analysis of data. Data collection has been linked to the times under consideration. For old (Pleistocene and Holocene) landslides, methodologies have focused on the use of chronostratigraphy. For historic (100 to 1 000 years) and recent landslides historical chronicles, written and natural sources were accessed. For active present landslides, several approaches were used: data sets, field measurements, recording of ground water fluctuation and catchment runoff, field sampling for classic strength tests, temporal recording of data regarding movement incidents, measuring plots, flexible tubes recorded geodetic techniques. An important result was the demonstration of the significance of human factors and their frequent implication in the triggering of activation of earth movements. The part played by earthquakes was demonstrated it appeared to be a subordinate role by comparison with anthropic and above all climatic causes. In most regions these were brought together, as far as possible over a period of 1 to 2 centuries. Raw pluviometric data was converted into effective rainfall by calculating the evapotranspiration by different models, and various methods of relating rain to movements were used, including graphic correlations, factorial analysis and multiple correspondence, or mathematical formulae defining alert threshold values from the ratio between rainfall intensity and duration. A significant part of the research was devoted to the last 5 to 10 years, in order to confirm the processes involved, particularly in debris flow, to measure movements, both on the surface and in depth, to analyse their seasonal rhythm and to establish hydrological prediction models.

- Data collection on
. old quaternary landslides . "historic" (100 to 1000 yrs) and recent (last century) landslides . active present landslides
- Building up of a database and updating of existing ones and production of hazard maps.
- Use of hydrological and geotechnical models for understanding stability, movement and frequency of incidents and temporal pattern of movement.

Topic(s)

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Call for proposal

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Coordinator

Université de Strasbourg I (Université Louis Pasteur)
EU contribution
No data
Address
3 rue de l'Argonne
67083 Strasbourg
France

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Total cost
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Participants (8)