Periodic Reporting for period 2 - TRIATLAS (Tropical and South Atlantic climate-based marine ecosystem predictions for sustainable management)
Período documentado: 2020-12-01 hasta 2022-05-31
Countries bordering the South and tropical Atlantic depend heavily on marine ecosystems for providing relevant services such as food, genetic resources, recreation and climate regulation. Unfortunately, the status of the marine ecosystems in this region and their future evolution is particularly poorly known. TRIATLAS’ overarching objective is to enable sustainable management of human activities in the Atlantic Ocean as a whole, by closing knowledge gaps on the status of the South and tropical Atlantic marine ecosystems and developing a framework for predicting their future changes, from months to decades—timescales of most interest to society and stakeholders. We focus on six representative regions with three in-depth case studies (Fig. 1). TRIATLAS is a basin-wide cooperation that combines ecosystem observations, climate-based ecosystem prediction and information on future socio-economic and ecosystem service changes, with stakeholder interactions and clustering with key projects and programs.
New data sets of combined physical, biogeochemical, and biological parameters for the South and tropical Atlantic are being constructed from new and existing observations. Key examples are the 2019 interdisciplinary Transatlantic Equatorial Cruise 1 from Walvis Bay, Namibia to Recife, Brazil; a satellite and ARGO profiler derived atlas of mesoscale eddies including biogeochemical and ecosystem parameters; and underwater vision profiler measurements of biological parameters. These data sets are deepening understanding of biophysical interactions, the current state of the ecosystem, and its seasonal dynamics. The synthesis of this information for the six key areas is providing an unprecedented insight of ecosystem components from phytoplankton to fish.
Interannual to decadal fluctuations in physical, biogeochemical, and biological systems in the South and tropical Atlantic were analysed using observations, proxy reconstructions, and numerical model simulations. We have studied marine heat waves, ocean circulation, stratification, and upwelling, and their effects on dissolved oxygen, air-to-sea CO2 fluxes, primary productivity, and higher trophic levels of the marine ecosystem, and biodiversity. Beyond identifying climatic drivers of ecosystem variability, anthropogenic drivers were examined using landing and socio-economic data, numerical and statistical modelling, and by developing indicators. We have assessed future climate change, and how it in combination with fisheries pressures will affect marine ecosystems.
Building on these results, we are developing climate-based predictions of the marine ecosystem for seasonal to decadal timescales. The first simulations with combined Earth system and marine ecosystem models were performed, focusing on long-term impacts of climate-change. Furthermore, Earth system predictions for seasonal-to-decadal timescales were conducted, and progress was made to extend these to the marine ecosystem. We showed that on these timescales, physical processes underlie the predictability of biogeochemical drivers for marine ecosystems. Approaches to reduce error and optimally use observational data were developed to improve predictions. Our simulations have contributed to international model-intercomparison and (CMIP6, Fish-MIP II) and assessment reports (IPCC AR6 working groups I and II).
To deliver societal and policy relevant information, we are analysing the complex interrelationships with human social drivers, considering large-scale and artisanal fisheries and the vulnerability of fishing communities. We have also identified hotspots in marine biodiversity, intense human activities affecting the marine ecosystem, and anchoveta as a new consumption fishery. Furthermore, together with stakeholders, we are creating future scenarios of coastal fisheries to feed into impact models.
The Cross-Atlantic Network of Excellence in Marine Science (CANEMS) was established to enhance capacity in marine ecosystem, oceanographic, and climate research in countries bordering the South and tropical Atlantic, so as to increase the region’s ability for managing human activities and sustainable development in the Atlantic Ocean.
Interannual to decadal fluctuations in physical, biogeochemical, and biological systems in the South and tropical Atlantic were analysed using observations, proxy reconstructions, and numerical model simulations. We have studied marine heat waves, ocean circulation, stratification, and upwelling, and their effects on dissolved oxygen, air-to-sea CO2 fluxes, primary productivity, and higher trophic levels of the marine ecosystem, and biodiversity. Beyond identifying climatic drivers of ecosystem variability, anthropogenic drivers were examined using landing and socio-economic data, numerical and statistical modelling, and by developing indicators. We have assessed future climate change, and how it in combination with fisheries pressures will affect marine ecosystems.
Building on these results, we are developing climate-based predictions of the marine ecosystem for seasonal to decadal timescales. The first simulations with combined Earth system and marine ecosystem models were performed, focusing on long-term impacts of climate-change. Furthermore, Earth system predictions for seasonal-to-decadal timescales were conducted, and progress was made to extend these to the marine ecosystem. We showed that on these timescales, physical processes underlie the predictability of biogeochemical drivers for marine ecosystems. Approaches to reduce error and optimally use observational data were developed to improve predictions. Our simulations have contributed to international model-intercomparison and (CMIP6, Fish-MIP II) and assessment reports (IPCC AR6 working groups I and II).
To deliver societal and policy relevant information, we are analysing the complex interrelationships with human social drivers, considering large-scale and artisanal fisheries and the vulnerability of fishing communities. We have also identified hotspots in marine biodiversity, intense human activities affecting the marine ecosystem, and anchoveta as a new consumption fishery. Furthermore, together with stakeholders, we are creating future scenarios of coastal fisheries to feed into impact models.
The Cross-Atlantic Network of Excellence in Marine Science (CANEMS) was established to enhance capacity in marine ecosystem, oceanographic, and climate research in countries bordering the South and tropical Atlantic, so as to increase the region’s ability for managing human activities and sustainable development in the Atlantic Ocean.
Novel new data sets are giving unprecedented insights into physical ocean processes and their impact on marine ecosystems. For example, observed tracer distributions allow quantification of ventilation and water mass exchange between western and eastern boundaries. Analyses of isotope patterns and of biomass size spectra over multiple trophic levels is giving insight into basin-scale ecosystem properties and processes. Baseline isotope data will be in particular useful for investigating the ecology of marine mammals. The wealth of observations in the TRITATLAS study regions will allow to disentangle effects of nutrient supply along gradients from oligotrophic to upwelling areas, effects of low oxygen levels found in the Benguela and Canary Current Systems, and changes along temperature gradients indicative of climate change effects. The Ocean’s vertical dimension will be better understood, through using depth resolved fish larval abundance data in hydroacoustical models of diel vertical migration.
TRIATLAS will improve understanding of environmental influences on marine ecosystems. The El Niño Southern Oscillation was shown to be the dominant physical driver on interannual timescales in the South and tropical Atlantic, with other phenomena, like Benguela Niño and Atlantic multi-decadal variability important at regional or longer-time scales. These phenomena drive variations in dissolved oxygen, primary productivity, tuna, northeast Brazil shrimp and southeastern Atlantic sardinella and horse mackerel. Hotspots in biodiversity were linked to environmental factors using novel observations (visual and acoustic).
TRIATLAS has delivered key findings on long-term climate change. These include the intensification of marine heatwaves in the southwest Atlantic and weakening of the Atlantic Niño.
TRIATLAS will deliver new knowledge of anthropogenic drivers. For example, a mobile App was developed to collect data on small scale fisheries, a modelling study has assessed the impact of various anthropogenic pressures on shrimp fisheries, and we are developing social wellbeing and vulnerability indicators for fishing communities. Analysis of the human social dimensions of fishing is its infancy for most regions of the Atlantic. Understanding the human dimension is increasingly recognised as important, for regional fisheries advisory organisations such as the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, and for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services assessment reports.
TRIATLAS will develop the first ever climate-based marine ecosystem prediction system for seasonal to decadal timescale. Considering both environmental and anthropogenic influences, this system will provide a unique and timely tool to sustainably manage human activities (e.g. fisheries) in the Atlantic. Theoretical and statistical approaches have shown the potential to predict marine ecosystem changes in the Atlantic based on environmental factors.
Several future scenarios are being tailored for the region through stakeholder engagement. These will feed into long-term impact assessment, providing several storylines useful for decision making.
TRIATLAS will improve understanding of environmental influences on marine ecosystems. The El Niño Southern Oscillation was shown to be the dominant physical driver on interannual timescales in the South and tropical Atlantic, with other phenomena, like Benguela Niño and Atlantic multi-decadal variability important at regional or longer-time scales. These phenomena drive variations in dissolved oxygen, primary productivity, tuna, northeast Brazil shrimp and southeastern Atlantic sardinella and horse mackerel. Hotspots in biodiversity were linked to environmental factors using novel observations (visual and acoustic).
TRIATLAS has delivered key findings on long-term climate change. These include the intensification of marine heatwaves in the southwest Atlantic and weakening of the Atlantic Niño.
TRIATLAS will deliver new knowledge of anthropogenic drivers. For example, a mobile App was developed to collect data on small scale fisheries, a modelling study has assessed the impact of various anthropogenic pressures on shrimp fisheries, and we are developing social wellbeing and vulnerability indicators for fishing communities. Analysis of the human social dimensions of fishing is its infancy for most regions of the Atlantic. Understanding the human dimension is increasingly recognised as important, for regional fisheries advisory organisations such as the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, and for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services assessment reports.
TRIATLAS will develop the first ever climate-based marine ecosystem prediction system for seasonal to decadal timescale. Considering both environmental and anthropogenic influences, this system will provide a unique and timely tool to sustainably manage human activities (e.g. fisheries) in the Atlantic. Theoretical and statistical approaches have shown the potential to predict marine ecosystem changes in the Atlantic based on environmental factors.
Several future scenarios are being tailored for the region through stakeholder engagement. These will feed into long-term impact assessment, providing several storylines useful for decision making.