How system dynamics modelling can transform youth suicide prevention
Suicide is the third leading cause of death among young people aged 15 to 29, according to the World Health Organization. Tackling this serious issue is complex, as it is shaped by biological, psychological, social, political and environmental factors that interact in unpredictable ways. Because of this complexity, suicide prevention can benefit from a systems thinking approach – a way of understanding intricate problems by analysing how different elements within a system interact and influence one another. “Adopting a systems thinking approach to suicide prevention helps us identify and map the complex and dynamic interactions between multiple suicide risk and protective factors to understand likely pathways of suicidal behaviour while considering the complexity of health systems,” explains Maria Michail(opens in new window), Marie Curie Global Fellow and coordinator of the EU-funded SEYMOUR(opens in new window) project. Undertaken with the support of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme(opens in new window), SEYMOUR has adopted system dynamics modelling (SDM), a computer-assisted method for analysing multiple components to improve the effectiveness of youth suicide prevention strategies.
Participatory insights for tailored modelling
One of the strengths of SEYMOUR’s SDM is its participatory systems modelling approach. Besides scientific data, the project collected empirical knowledge from stakeholders such as people aged 12 to 25 years with experience of self-harm or suicidal behaviour, their families, healthcare providers, service commissioners and policymakers in Australia and the UK. “Stakeholders helped us conceptualise and map the pathways leading to self-harm and suicidal behaviours in young people, identifying risk and protective factors, as well as mapping community and mental health services, and the factors that influence the flow of the population through these systems in each country,” says Michail. The conceptual model co-produced with stakeholders was then translated into a computerised mathematical model. When reflecting on how the system could be improved, stakeholders in both Australia and the UK prioritised investment in upstream interventions – measures aimed at preventing negative outcomes before they occur – rather than relying solely on specialist mental health services. Examples of this upstream approach include school-based mental health literacy programmes and community-based peer support networks.
Modelling for policy impact
In Australia, the project interviewed expert stakeholders to gain insights into their experience with the participatory model-building workshops, and to understand the factors that influence how this approach can be implemented across different contexts and stakeholder groups. “This work has led to the development of a framework for effectively implementing the SEYMOUR participatory systems modelling method,” says Michail. “The framework helps to answer a key question: in what circumstances, for whom and why does participatory systems modelling work when developing complex system models?” System dynamics modelling provides a structured way to explore ‘what-if’ scenarios, helping decision-makers anticipate the impact of various interventions within the system before acting. “One of SDM’s unique advantages is that it is grounded in implementation science, maximising opportunities for policy adoption and uptake in the real world,” highlights Michail. “I am confident that, once finalised, our SDM will offer policymakers a robust decision support tool to inform strategic planning and resource allocation for suicide prevention both in Australia and the UK.”