Could your country feed itself if global trade stopped?
Fragile politics, ongoing conflicts, tit-for-tat tariffs and a climate emergency are making countries vulnerable to market shocks and jeopardising trade networks. As a result, they’re prioritising self-reliance and food security. But what if trade came to an abrupt halt for one of these reasons? Is your country completely self-sufficient and able to provide for the complete food needs of its population? To answer this question, researchers from the University of Göttingen in Germany and The University of Edinburgh in the United Kingdom analysed food production data from 186 countries. The findings were published in the journal ‘Nature Food’(opens in new window).
Standing above the rest
Guyana, a small country in South America with a population of about 800 000, was the only nation that’s self-sufficient in all seven essential food groups: grains, pulses (e.g. beans, peas, lentils, chickpeas), fruits, vegetables, milk, meat and fish. It produces every key food category on its own. China and Vietnam were next, producing enough food in six out of the seven groups that the research team focused on. Three out of five countries didn’t produce enough food within their borders in at least four out of seven groups. About one in seven countries, primarily in Europe and South America, were self-sufficient in five or more groups. What’s worrisome was that a third can only produce two or fewer food groups: 25 are in Africa, 10 in the Caribbean and 7 in Europe. Six countries, mainly in the Middle East, didn’t produce enough of a single food group for their own needs. Europe doesn’t deal with any dairy production challenges because the countries were able to cover their dairy requirements. However, that wasn’t the case with fruit production. No Northern European countries were able to cover even half of their fruit needs. Vegetable self-sufficiency was a mixed bag. The Mediterranean can sustain itself, but Northern Europe had difficulties coping with vegetable production. Several European countries depended on just one trade partner for most of their legumes, nuts and seeds. “International food trade and cooperation is essential for healthy and sustainable diets. However, heavy reliance on imports from single countries can leave nations vulnerable,” explained first author Jonas Stehl, PhD researcher at the University of Göttingen in a press release(opens in new window). “Building resilient food supply chains is imperative for ensuring public health.” As the population grows, so do dietary requirements. Countries in Europe didn’t have difficulty meeting demand. They are expected to be more self-sufficient with respect to legumes, nuts and seeds.
Limited self-sufficiency and global collaboration
“Climate shocks are reshaping the agriculture sector and will continue to intensify,” commented Alexander Vonderschmidt, PhD researcher at The University of Edinburgh in a news item(opens in new window). “Open trade and innovation are essential to secure healthy, low-carbon diets.” “In the medium to long term, reallocating resources and investing in technologies could substantially enhance production capacities,” the authors concluded. “Advancements in agriculture and aquaculture, such as genetic engineering, precision farming, controlled environment agriculture and cellular agriculture, and strategies … demonstrate the potential for enhancing domestic food production. In analysing the change in self-sufficiency from 2020 to 2032, projections suggest that almost all countries have the potential to improve self-sufficiency.”