EXTREME EVENTS: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION

CORDIS fournit des liens vers les livrables publics et les publications des projets HORIZON.

Les liens vers les livrables et les publications des projets du 7e PC, ainsi que les liens vers certains types de résultats spécifiques tels que les jeux de données et les logiciels, sont récupérés dynamiquement sur OpenAIRE .

Livrables

Report and delivery of a draft framework for event definition developed in collaboration with stakeholders

(Task 2.1) This report will provide clear guidance and principles on how to define an event to be considered in an attribution study that is on one hand closely related to what actually caused the damages and thus societies are vulnerable to and on the other hand can in principle be simulated using state-of-the-art climate models. Given the diverse nature of damages, societies and stakeholders as well as hazards there will be no strict framework, but instead a set of principles that allows flexibility with respect to divers vulnerabilities and stakeholder needs.

List of storm/cyclone events detected

An AI method will be jointly developed with WP3 and a list of storm/cyclone events detected will be compiled (from Task 8.2)

Report on joint activities with other EU projects

[Task 1.3] This report will describe the common activities that have took place at M18 with other EU. We envisage in particular a strong link with the C3S, and the H2020 EUCP project. We will report also on common activities with parallel projects of the same call.

List of high precipitation and flood events for the present and future periods

"By using the available observations and survey a list of high precipitation and flood events will be compiled. For hurricanes we will largely rely on the HURDAT database available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#hurdat. A similar list will be done for the events detected and not by the CP models in present and future scenario simulations. (from Task 8.1)"

Report update on joint activities with other EU projects

[Task 1.3] This report will describe the common activities that have took place at M36 with other EU. We envisage in particular a strong link with the C3S, and the H2020 EUCP project. We will report also on common activities with parallel projects of the same call

Report on the Summer training school

Report on the Summer training school. The report will include in particular the programme, the training exercises, the number of participant, an evaluation from participating students and young researchers. [Task 1.2]

Policy brief on the detection and attribution of extreme events to climate change

[Task 1.2] Policy brief on the detection and attribution of extreme events to climate change. The content will be discussed with the project consortium and stakeholders on the most important topics to develop. It will be aimed at describing how recent extreme events inform on future climate and required adaptation.

Report detailing and collating databases of impacts, vulnerability and exposure relevant to extreme weather events

(Task 2.2) This report will provide an overview of currently available data and crucially highlight gaps in the data available to truly learn from past extreme events. This will consist of hazard data as well as data on damages, economic and non-economic but also other determinants of vulnerability, like population structure and changes. Ultimately allowing stakeholders to assess physical, transition and liability risks.

Value promotion plan

A plan for promoting various values from the promotion committee (recruitment, climate and environment fairness, communication, ethics)

Open source toolbox for climate-induced impact assessment based on advanced regression

(Task 3.3) An open source toolbox based on (deep) Bayesian probabilistic regression models will be deployed with tunable parameterizations and training modules. Several examples of use will be included to deal with (i) estimation, prediction and forecasting and (ii) uncertainty quantification of the estimates. A Jupyter notebook will exemplify tools, tuning and applications in control scenarios, aimed to serve adoption by other members of the consortium (inside WP3 and in collaborations with other WPs). This deliverable will be also accompanied by a report on the theoretical underpinnings and limitations of the proposed methods in terms of computational efficiency, automatism and robustness (to noise and dimensionality).

Open source code for detection and characterization of spatio-temporal extreme events

(Task 3.2) An open source toolbox based on spatio-temporal deep learning architectures will be deployed with tunable parameterizations and training modules. Several examples of use will be included to deal with (i) detection and (ii) characterization of extremes. A Jupyter notebook will exemplify tools, tuning and applications in control scenarios, aimed to serve adoption by other members of the consortium (inside WP3 and in collaborations with WP4 and WP7). This deliverable will be also accompanied by a report on the theoretical underpinnings and limitations of the proposed methods in terms of computational efficiency, automatism and robustness (to noise and dimensionality).

Press conference on intermediate results of the project

[task1.2] Press conference on intermediate results of the project. The report will include the press release and the discussion points.

Project website

The website will target both the scientific community and the large public and updated on a regular basis.

Publications

How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

Auteurs: Dim Coumou, Paola A Arias, Ana Bastos, Charlotte Kendra Gotangco Gonzales, Gabriele C Hegerl, Pandora Hope, Christopher Jack, Friederike Otto, Fahad Saeed, Olivia Serdeczny, Theodore G Shepherd, Robert Vautard
Publié dans: PNAS Nexus, Numéro 3, 2024, ISSN 2752-6542
Éditeur: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae277

Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought

Auteurs: Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, Dominik L. Schumacher, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Jakob Zscheischler
Publié dans: Nature Geoscience, Numéro 17, 2024, Page(s) 1100-1107, ISSN 1752-0894
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2

Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales

Auteurs: Chiem van Straaten, Dim Coumou, Kirien Whan, Bart van den Hurk, Maurice Schmeits
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2025, Page(s) 887–903, ISSN 2698-4016
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2023-6

Attributing Venice Acqua Alta events to a changing climate and evaluating the efficacy of MoSE adaptation strategy

Auteurs: Davide Faranda, Mireia Ginesta, Tommaso Alberti, Erika Coppola, Marco Anzidei
Publié dans: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numéro 6, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00513-0

Discovering causal relations and equations from data

Auteurs: Gustau Camps-Valls, Andreas Gerhardus, Urmi Ninad, Gherardo Varando, Georg Martius, Emili Balaguer-Ballester, Ricardo Vinuesa, Emiliano Diaz, Laure Zanna, Jakob Runge
Publié dans: Physics Reports, Numéro 1044, 2024, Page(s) 1-68, ISSN 0370-1573
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physrep.2023.10.005

Soil heat extremes can outpace air temperature extremes

Auteurs: Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Diego G. Miralles, Miguel D. Mahecha, Johannes Quaas, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Zscheischler, Jian Peng
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, Numéro 13, 2023, Page(s) 1237-1241, ISSN 1758-678X
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01812-3

Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analogue importance sampling

Auteurs: Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Gabriele Messori
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numéro 43, 2024, Page(s) 100651, ISSN 2212-0947
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100651

A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events

Auteurs: Ana Bastos, Sebastian Sippel, Dorothea Frank, Miguel D. Mahecha, Sönke Zaehle, Jakob Zscheischler, Markus Reichstein
Publié dans: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Numéro 4, 2023, Page(s) 333-350, ISSN 2662-138X
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00410-3

Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events

Auteurs: Bevacqua, E., De Michele, C., Manning, C., Couasnon, A., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Ramos, A. M., Vignotto, E., Bastos, A., Blesić, S., Durante, F., Hillier, J., Oliveira, S. C., Pinto, J. G., Ragno, E., Rivoire, P., Saunders, K., van der Wiel, K., Wu, W., Zhang, T., Zscheischler, J.
Publié dans: Earth's Future, 2022, ISSN 2328-4277
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002340

Hydroclimatic extremes contribute to asymmetric trends in ecosystem productivity loss

Auteurs: Jun Li, Emanuele Bevacqua, Zhaoli Wang, Stephen Sitch, Vivek Arora, Almut Arneth, Atul K. Jain, Daniel Goll, Hanqin Tian, Jakob Zscheischler
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 4, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00869-4

Record events attribution in climate studies

Auteurs: Julien Worms, Philippe Naveau
Publié dans: Environmetrics, Numéro Volume 33, Numéro 8, 2022, ISSN 1180-4009
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/env.2777

Detecting Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Western European Heatwaves Using Deep Learning

Auteurs: T. Happé, J. S. Wijnands, M. Á. Fernández-Torres, P. Scussolini, L. Muntjewerf, D. Coumou
Publié dans: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Numéro 3, 2024, ISSN 2769-7525
Éditeur: American Meteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-23-0107.1

Human influences on spatially compounding flooding and heatwave events in China and future increasing risks

Auteurs: Cheng Qian, Yangbo Ye, Emanuele Bevacqua, Jakob Zscheischler
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numéro 42, 2024, Page(s) 100616, ISSN 2212-0947
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100616

Classification of tropical cyclone containing images using a convolutional neural network: performance and sensitivity to the learning dataset

Auteurs: Olivier Boucher; Sébastien Gardoll
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 15, 2022, Page(s) 7051-7073, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-7051-2022

Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest USA and amplified over Western Europe

Auteurs: Jitendra Singh, Sebastian Sippel, Erich M. Fischer
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 4, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01096-7

Early snowmelt and polar jet dynamics co–influence recent extreme Siberian fire seasons

Auteurs: Rebecca C. Scholten, Dim Coumou, Fei Luo, and Sander Veraverbeke
Publié dans: Science, Numéro Vol 378, Numéro 6623, 2022, Page(s) 1005-1009, ISSN 0036-8075
Éditeur: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.abn4419

Harbingers of decades of unnatural disasters

Auteurs: Friederike E. L. Otto, Emmanuel Raju
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 4, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00943-x

The AIDE Toolbox: Artificial intelligence for disentangling extreme events [Software and Data Sets]

Auteurs: Maria Gonzalez-Calabuig, Jordi Cortés-Andrés, Tristan Keith Ellis Williams, Mengxue Zhang, Oscar Jose Pellicer-Valero, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls
Publié dans: IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Magazine, Numéro 12, 2024, Page(s) 113-118, ISSN 2168-6831
Éditeur: IEEE Geosciene and Remote Sensing Society
DOI: 10.1109/mgrs.2024.3382544

Formally combining different lines of evidence in extreme-event attribution

Auteurs: Friederike E. L. Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Robert Vautard
Publié dans: Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, Numéro 10, 2024, Page(s) 159-171, ISSN 2364-3587
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/ascmo-10-159-2024

Exploring interactions between socioeconomic context and natural hazards on human population displacement

Auteurs: Michele Ronco, José María Tárraga, Jordi Muñoz, María Piles, Eva Sevillano Marco, Qiang Wang, Maria Teresa Miranda Espinosa, Sylvain Ponserre, Gustau Camps-Valls
Publié dans: Nature Communications, Numéro 14, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43809-8

Finding the Right XAI Method—A Guide for the Evaluation and Ranking of Explainable AI Methods in Climate Science

Auteurs: Philine Lou Bommer, Marlene Kretschmer, Anna Hedström, Dilyara Bareeva, Marina M.-C. Höhne
Publié dans: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Numéro 3, 2024, ISSN 2769-7525
Éditeur: American MEteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-23-0074.1

How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation

Auteurs: Pascal Yiou, Robert Vautard, Yoann Robin, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Fabio D’Andrea, Robin Noyelle
Publié dans: Climate Services, Numéro 36, 2024, Page(s) 100518, ISSN 2405-8807
Éditeur: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100518

Skillful U.S. Soy Yield Forecasts at Presowing Lead Times

Auteurs: Sem Vijverberg, Raed Hamed, Dim Coumou
Publié dans: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Numéro 2, 2025, ISSN 2769-7525
Éditeur: American Meteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-21-0009.1

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Auteurs: Iris Elisabeth de Vries; Sebastian Sippel; Angeline Greene Pendergrass; Reto Knutti
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro 14, 2023, Page(s) 81-100, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-81-2023

Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Auteurs: Emanuele Bevacqua, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Aglaé Jézéquel, Flavio Lehner, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Jakob Zscheischler
Publié dans: Nature Communications, Numéro 14, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37847-5

Time of emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties

Auteurs: Bastien François, Mathieu Vrac
Publié dans: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numéro 23, 2025, Page(s) 21-44, ISSN 1684-9981
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023

Heat extremes linearly shift with global warming, with frequency doubling per decade since 1979

Auteurs: Robert Vautard, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Izidine Pinto, Friederieke E L Otto
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro 19, 2024, Page(s) 094033, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad63be

Biodiversity and Climate Extremes: Known Interactions and Research Gaps

Auteurs: M. D. Mahecha, A. Bastos, F. J. Bohn, N. Eisenhauer, H. Feilhauer, T. Hickler, H. Kalesse‐Los, M. Migliavacca, F. E. L. Otto, J. Peng, S. Sippel, I. Tegen, A. Weigelt, M. Wendisch, C. Wirth, D. Al‐Halbouni, H. Deneke, D. Doktor, S. Dunker, G. Duveiller, A. Ehrlich, A. Foth, A. García‐García, C. A. Guerra, C. Guimarães‐Steinicke, H. Hartmann, S. Henning, H. Herrmann, P. Hu, C. Ji, T. Kat
Publié dans: Earth's Future, Numéro 12, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef003963

Dynamical footprints of Hurricanes in the Tropical Dynamics

Auteurs: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Pascal Yiou, Soulivanh Thao, Flavio Pons, Berengere Dubrulle
Publié dans: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2022, ISSN 1054-1500
Éditeur: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0093732

Developing Low‐Likelihood Climate Storylines for Extreme Precipitation Over Central Europe

Auteurs: C. Gessner, E. M. Fischer, U. Beyerle, R. Knutti
Publié dans: Earth's Future, Numéro 11, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef003628

Uncertainty Quantification When Learning Dynamical Models and Solvers With Variational Methods

Auteurs: N. Lafon, R. Fablet, P. Naveau
Publié dans: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numéro 15, 2023, ISSN 1942-2466
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022ms003446

Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events

Auteurs: Bevacqua, E., Zappa, G., Lehner, F., Zscheischler, J.
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, 2022, ISSN 1758-6798
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01309-5

ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate

Auteurs: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Robert Vautard
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numéro 5, 2024, Page(s) 959-983, ISSN 2698-4016
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024

Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought

Auteurs: Dominik L. Schumacher, Mariam Zachariah, Friederike Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Dorothy Heinrich, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Mathias Hauser, Martin Hirschi, Verena Bessenbacher, Lukas Gudmundsson, Hiroko K. Beaudoing, Matthew Rodell, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Luke J. Harrington, Flavio Lehner, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Sonia I. Senevi
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro 15, 2024, Page(s) 131-154, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-131-2024

Attributing Compound Events to Anthropogenic Climate Change

Auteurs: Jakob Zscheischler, Flavio Lehner
Publié dans: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Numéro Volume 103, Numéro 3, 2022, Page(s) E936–E953, ISSN 0003-0007
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0116.1

Combinations of drivers that most favor the occurrence of daily precipitation extremes

Auteurs: Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Emanuele Bevacqua, Luis Gimeno
Publié dans: Atmospheric Research, Numéro 294, 2023, Page(s) 106959, ISSN 0169-8095
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106959

Combining climate models and observations to predict the time remaining until regional warming thresholds are reached

Auteurs: Elizabeth A Barnes, Noah S Diffenbaugh, Sonia I Seneviratne
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro 20, 2024, Page(s) 014008, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca

Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Auteurs: Friederike E L Otto, Mariam Zachariah, Fahad Saeed, Ayesha Siddiqi, Shahzad Kamil, Haris Mushtaq, T Arulalan, Krishna AchutaRao, S T Chaithra, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Robert Vautard, Gerbrand Koren, Izidine Pinto, Piotr Wolski, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Lisa Thalheimer, Emmanuel Raju, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Luke J Harrington, Ben Clarke
Publié dans: Environmental Research: Climate, Numéro 2, 2023, Page(s) 025001, ISSN 2752-5295
Éditeur: IOP Science
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/acbfd5

Causality and the fate of climate litigation: The Role of the social Superstructure Narrative

Auteurs: Friederike E. L. Otto; Petra Minnerop; Emmanuel Raju; Luke J. Harrington; Rupert F. Stuart‐Smith; Emily Boyd; Rachel James; Richard Jones; Kristian C. Lauta
Publié dans: Global Policies, Numéro Volume 13, Numéro 5, 2022, Page(s) 623-833, ISSN 1758-5880
Éditeur: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.13113

Reconstruction of zonal precipitation from sparse historical observations using climate model information and statistical learning

Auteurs: Egli, M., Sippel, S., Pendergrass, A. G., de Vries, I., & Knutti, R.
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 49, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099826

Regional asymmetry in the response of global vegetation growth to springtime compound climate events

Auteurs: Jun Li; Emanuele Bevacqua; Chi Chen; Zhaoli Wang; Xiaohong Chen; Ranga B. Myneni; Xushu Wu; Chong-Yu Xu; Zhenxing Zhang; Jakob Zscheischler
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 3;123, 2022, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Communications Earth & Environment
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00455-0

Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes

Auteurs: Dominik L. Schumacher, Jitendra Singh, Mathias Hauser, Erich M. Fischer, Martin Wild, Sonia I. Seneviratne
Publié dans: Communications Earth & Environment, Numéro 5, 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01332-8

Identifying probabilistic weather regimes targeted to a local-scale impact variable

Auteurs: Fiona R. Spuler, Marlene Kretschmer, Yevgeniya Kovalchuk, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Theodore G. Shepherd
Publié dans: Environmental Data Science, Numéro 3, 2025, ISSN 2634-4602
Éditeur: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/eds.2024.29

Deep Learning With Noisy Labels for Spatiotemporal Drought Detection

Auteurs: Jordi Cortés-Andrés, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls
Publié dans: IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Numéro 62, 2024, Page(s) 1-13, ISSN 0196-2892
Éditeur: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
DOI: 10.1109/tgrs.2024.3504340

Correcting Subseasonal Forecast Errors with an Explainable ANN to Understand Misrepresented Sources of Predictability of European Summer Temperatures

Auteurs: Chiem van Straaten, Kirien Whan, Dim Coumou, Bart van den Hurk, Maurice Schmeits
Publié dans: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Numéro 2, 2025, Page(s) 1-21, ISSN 2769-7525
Éditeur: American Meteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-22-0047.1

Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends

Auteurs: Robert Vautard, Julien Cattiaux, Tamara Happé, Jitendra Singh, Rémy Bonnet, Christophe Cassou, Dim Coumou, Fabio D’Andrea, Davide Faranda, Erich Fischer, Aurélien Ribes, Sebastian Sippel, Pascal Yiou
Publié dans: Nature Communications, Numéro 14, 2024, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3

Strong Linkage Between Observed Daily Precipitation Extremes and Anthropogenic Emissions Across the Contiguous United States

Auteurs: J. S. Nanditha, Gabriele Villarini, Hanbeen Kim, Philippe Naveau
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 51, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl109553

Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives

Auteurs: Stefano Materia, Lluís Palma García, Chiem van Straaten, Sungmin O, Antonios Mamalakis, Leone Cavicchia, Dim Coumou, Paolo de Luca, Marlene Kretschmer, Markus Donat
Publié dans: WIREs Climate Change, Numéro 15, 2024, ISSN 1757-7780
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.914

High return level estimates of daily ERA-5 precipitation in Europe estimated using regionalized extreme value distributions

Auteurs: Pauline Rivoire, Philomène Le Gall, Anne-Catherine Favre, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numéro Volume 38, 2022, ISSN 2212-0947
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100500

Decadal to centennial extreme precipitation disaster gaps — Long-term variability and implications for extreme value modelling

Auteurs: Joel Zeder, Erich M. Fischer
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numéro 43, 2024, Page(s) 100636, ISSN 2212-0947
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100636

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021

Auteurs: Faranda, D., Bourdin, S., Ginesta, M., Krouma, M., Messori, G., Noyelle, R., Pons, F., and Yiou, P.
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numéro 3, 1311–1340, 2022, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022

Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting

Auteurs: E. M. Fischer, U. Beyerle, L. Bloin-Wibe, C. Gessner, V. Humphrey, F. Lehner, A. G. Pendergrass, S. Sippel, J. Zeder, R. Knutti
Publié dans: Nature Communications, Numéro 14, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40112-4

Attribution of Extreme Events to Climate Change

Auteurs: Friederike E.L. Otto
Publié dans: Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Numéro 48, 2023, Page(s) 813-828, ISSN 1543-5938
Éditeur: Annual Reviews, Inc.
DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112621-083538

Human influence on growing-period frosts like the early April 2021 in Central France

Auteurs: Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Publié dans: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1684-9981
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-41

Challenges in Attributing the 2022 Australian Rain Bomb to Climate Change

Auteurs: Cadiou, C., Noyelle, R., Malhomme, N., Faranda, D.
Publié dans: Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2022, ISSN 1976-7951
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1007/s13143-022-00305-1

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe

Auteurs: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Aglae Jezequel, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou
Publié dans: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Numéro 120, 2023, ISSN 0027-8424
Éditeur: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

Multimodel Errors and Emergence of Times in Climate Attribution Studies

Auteurs: Naveau, P., Thao, S.
Publié dans: Journal of Climate, Numéro Volume 35, Numéro 14, 2022, Page(s) 4791–4804, ISSN 0894-8755
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0332.1

Drivers and Mechanisms of the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Auteurs: D. L. Schumacher, M. Hauser, S. I. Seneviratne
Publié dans: Earth's Future, Numéro Volume 10, Numéro 12, 2022, ISSN 2328-4277
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022ef002967

Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution

Auteurs: Aglaé Jézéquel, Ana Bastos, Davide Faranda, Joyce Kimutai, Natacha Le Grix, Anna M Wilson, Samuel Rufat, Theodore G Shepherd, Rupert F Stuart-Smith, Anne F Van Loon, Emanuele Bevacqua, Fabio D’Andrea, Flavio Lehner, Elisabeth A Lloyd, Julia Moemken, Alexandre M Ramos, Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler
Publié dans: Environmental Research: Climate, Numéro 3, 2024, Page(s) 042003, ISSN 2752-5295
Éditeur: IOP Science
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad7527

Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective

Auteurs: Ben Clarke; Friederike Otto; Rupert Stuart-Smith; Luke Harrington
Publié dans: Environmental Research Climate, Numéro 1, 2022, ISSN 2752-5295
Éditeur: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ac6e7d

Robust detection of forced warming in the presence of potentially large climate variability

Auteurs: Sebastian Sippel, Nicolai Meinshausen, Enikő Székely, Erich Fischer, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Reto Knutti
Publié dans: Science Advances, Numéro Vol. 7, No. 43, 2021, ISSN 2375-2548
Éditeur: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abh4429

Extreme heat wave sampling and prediction with analog Markov chain and comparisons with deep learning

Auteurs: George Miloshevich, Dario Lucente, Pascal Yiou, Freddy Bouchet
Publié dans: Environmental Data Science, Numéro 3, 2024, ISSN 2634-4602
Éditeur: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/eds.2024.7

Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes

Auteurs: Elizabeth J. Kendon, Erich M. Fischer, Chris J. Short
Publié dans: Nature Communications, Numéro 14, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36499-9

Insights into the Drivers and Spatiotemporal Trends of Extreme Mediterranean Wildfires with Statistical Deep Learning

Auteurs: Jordan Richards, Raphaël Huser, Emanuele Bevacqua, Jakob Zscheischler
Publié dans: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Numéro 2, 2024, ISSN 2769-7525
Éditeur: American Meteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-22-0095.1

Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes

Auteurs: Lucas Fery, Davide Faranda
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numéro 5, 2025, Page(s) 439-461, ISSN 2698-4016
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024

Persistent anticyclonic conditions and climate change exacerbated the exceptional 2022 European-Mediterranean drought

Auteurs: Davide Faranda, Salvatore Pascale, Burak Bulut
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbc37

Maximal reachable temperatures for Western Europe in current climate

Auteurs: Robin Noyelle, Yi Zhang, Pascal Yiou, Davide Faranda
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro 18, 2023, Page(s) 094061, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acf679

Time of Emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties

Auteurs: Bastien François; Mathieu Vrac
Publié dans: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numéro 23, 2023, Page(s) 21-44, ISSN 1684-9981
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-127

Equalising the evidence base for adaptation and loss and damages

Auteurs: Friederike E. L. Otto, Frederick Fabian
Publié dans: Global Policy, Numéro 15, 2024, Page(s) 64-74, ISSN 1758-5880
Éditeur: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.13269

Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations

Auteurs: Sebastian Sippel, Elizabeth C. Kent, Nicolai Meinshausen, Duo Chan, Christopher Kadow, Raphael Neukom, Erich M. Fischer, Vincent Humphrey, Robert Rohde, Iris de Vries, Reto Knutti
Publié dans: Nature, Numéro 635, 2025, Page(s) 618-624, ISSN 0028-0836
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08230-1

Stable sums to infer high return levels of multivariate rainfall time series

Auteurs: Gloria Buriticá, Philippe Naveau
Publié dans: Environmetrics, 2022, ISSN 1180-4009
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/env.2782

Identifying compound weather drivers of forest biomass loss with generative deep learning

Auteurs: Mohit Anand, Friedrich J. Bohn, Gustau Camps-Valls, Rico Fischer, Andreas Huth, Lily-belle Sweet, Jakob Zscheischler
Publié dans: Environmental Data Science, Numéro 3, 2024, ISSN 2634-4602
Éditeur: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/eds.2024.2

Spatial variability in Alpine reservoir regulation: deriving reservoir operations from streamflow using generalized additive models

Auteurs: Manuela Irene Brunner, Philippe Naveau
Publié dans: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Numéro 27, 2025, Page(s) 673-687, ISSN 1607-7938
Éditeur: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
DOI: 10.5194/hess-27-673-2023

The Effect of a Short Observational Record on the Statistics of Temperature Extremes

Auteurs: Joel Zeder, Sebastian Sippel, Olivier C. Pasche, Sebastian Engelke, Erich M. Fischer
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 50, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl104090

A shifting climate: <scp>New</scp> paradigms and challenges for (early career) scientists in extreme weather research

Auteurs: Marlene Kretschmer, Aglaé Jézéquel, Zachary M. Labe, Danielle Touma
Publié dans: Atmospheric Science Letters, Numéro 25, 2024, ISSN 1530-261X
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/asl.1268

A meta-Gaussian distribution for sub-hourly rainfall

Auteurs: Marie Boutigny, Pierre Ailliot, Aurore Chaubet, Philippe Naveau, Benoît Saussol
Publié dans: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Numéro 37, 2023, Page(s) 3915-3927, ISSN 1436-3240
Éditeur: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-023-02487-0

Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods

Auteurs: Shijie Jiang, Larisa Tarasova, Guo Yu, Jakob Zscheischler
Publié dans: Science Advances, Numéro 10, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Éditeur: American Association for the Advancement of Scienc
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adl4005

Winter climate preconditioning of summer vegetation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere

Auteurs: Mohit Anand, Raed Hamed, Nora Linscheid, Patrícia S Silva, Julie Andre, Jakob Zscheischler, Freya K Garry, Ana Bastos
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro 19, 2024, Page(s) 094045, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad627d

Compound wind and precipitation extremes across the Indo-Pacific: climatology, variability and drivers

Auteurs: Delei Li, Yang Chen, Martina Messmer, Yuchao Zhu, Jianlong Feng, Baoshu Yin, Emanuele Bevacqua
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 49, 14, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl098594

Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?

Auteurs: Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numéro 5, 2024, Page(s) 943-957, ISSN 2698-4016
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024

Foundations of attribution in climate-change science

Auteurs: Elisabeth A Lloyd, Theodore G Shepherd
Publié dans: Environmental Research: Climate, Numéro 2, 2023, Page(s) 035014, ISSN 2752-5295
Éditeur: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/aceea1

Causal inference for time series

Auteurs: Jakob Runge, Andreas Gerhardus, Gherardo Varando, Veronika Eyring, Gustau Camps-Valls
Publié dans: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Numéro 4, 2023, Page(s) 487-505, ISSN 2662-138X
Éditeur: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00431-y

Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass

Auteurs: Natacha Le Grix, William L. Cheung, Gabriel Reygondeau, Jakob Zscheischler, Thomas L. Frölicher
Publié dans: Global Change Biology, Numéro 29, 2025, Page(s) 6478-6492, ISSN 1354-1013
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16968

Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics

Auteurs: Pascal Yiou, Camille Cadiou, Davide Faranda, Aglaé Jézéquel, Nemo Malhomme, George Miloshevich, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac
Publié dans: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numéro 6, 2023, ISSN 2397-3722
Éditeur: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00500-5

Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides

Auteurs: Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Carlo De Michele
Publié dans: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numéro 24, 2025, Page(s) 2689-2704, ISSN 1684-9981
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024

Joint stochastic simulation of extreme coastal and offshore significant wave heights

Auteurs: Juliette Legrand, Pierre Ailliot, Philippe Naveau, Nicolas Raillard
Publié dans: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Numéro 17, 2023, ISSN 1932-6157
Éditeur: Institute of Mathematical Statistics
DOI: 10.1214/23-aoas1766

Domain knowledge-driven variational recurrent networks for drought monitoring

Auteurs: Mengxue Zhang, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls
Publié dans: Remote Sensing of Environment, Numéro 311, 2024, Page(s) 114252, ISSN 0034-4257
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114252

Summer Deep Depressions Increase Over the Eastern North Atlantic

Auteurs: Fabio D'Andrea, Fabio D'andrea, Jean-Philippe Duvel, Gwendal Rivière, Robert Vautard, Christophe Cassou, Julien Cattiaux, Davide Faranda, Tamara Happé, Aglaé Jézéquel, Aurelien Ribes, Pascal Yiou
Publié dans: Geophysical Research LEtters, 2024, ISSN 1944-8007
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.170785883.38291063/v1

Multi-Modal Learning for Geospatial Vegetation Forecasting

Auteurs: Vitus Benson, Claire Robin, Christian Requena-Mesa, Lazaro Alonso, Nuno Carvalhais, José Cortés, Zhihan Gao, Nora Linscheid, Mélanie Weynants, Markus Reichstein
Publié dans: 2024 IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2024, Page(s) 27788-27799
Éditeur: IEEE
DOI: 10.1109/cvpr52733.2024.02625

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