EXTREME EVENTS: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Deliverables

Report and delivery of a draft framework for event definition developed in collaboration with stakeholders

(Task 2.1) This report will provide clear guidance and principles on how to define an event to be considered in an attribution study that is on one hand closely related to what actually caused the damages and thus societies are vulnerable to and on the other hand can in principle be simulated using state-of-the-art climate models. Given the diverse nature of damages, societies and stakeholders as well as hazards there will be no strict framework, but instead a set of principles that allows flexibility with respect to divers vulnerabilities and stakeholder needs.

List of storm/cyclone events detected

An AI method will be jointly developed with WP3 and a list of storm/cyclone events detected will be compiled (from Task 8.2)

Report on joint activities with other EU projects

[Task 1.3] This report will describe the common activities that have took place at M18 with other EU. We envisage in particular a strong link with the C3S, and the H2020 EUCP project. We will report also on common activities with parallel projects of the same call.

List of high precipitation and flood events for the present and future periods

"By using the available observations and survey a list of high precipitation and flood events will be compiled. For hurricanes we will largely rely on the HURDAT database available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#hurdat. A similar list will be done for the events detected and not by the CP models in present and future scenario simulations. (from Task 8.1)"

Report update on joint activities with other EU projects

[Task 1.3] This report will describe the common activities that have took place at M36 with other EU. We envisage in particular a strong link with the C3S, and the H2020 EUCP project. We will report also on common activities with parallel projects of the same call

Report on the Summer training school

Report on the Summer training school. The report will include in particular the programme, the training exercises, the number of participant, an evaluation from participating students and young researchers. [Task 1.2]

Policy brief on the detection and attribution of extreme events to climate change

[Task 1.2] Policy brief on the detection and attribution of extreme events to climate change. The content will be discussed with the project consortium and stakeholders on the most important topics to develop. It will be aimed at describing how recent extreme events inform on future climate and required adaptation.

Report detailing and collating databases of impacts, vulnerability and exposure relevant to extreme weather events

(Task 2.2) This report will provide an overview of currently available data and crucially highlight gaps in the data available to truly learn from past extreme events. This will consist of hazard data as well as data on damages, economic and non-economic but also other determinants of vulnerability, like population structure and changes. Ultimately allowing stakeholders to assess physical, transition and liability risks.

Value promotion plan

A plan for promoting various values from the promotion committee (recruitment, climate and environment fairness, communication, ethics)

Open source toolbox for climate-induced impact assessment based on advanced regression

(Task 3.3) An open source toolbox based on (deep) Bayesian probabilistic regression models will be deployed with tunable parameterizations and training modules. Several examples of use will be included to deal with (i) estimation, prediction and forecasting and (ii) uncertainty quantification of the estimates. A Jupyter notebook will exemplify tools, tuning and applications in control scenarios, aimed to serve adoption by other members of the consortium (inside WP3 and in collaborations with other WPs). This deliverable will be also accompanied by a report on the theoretical underpinnings and limitations of the proposed methods in terms of computational efficiency, automatism and robustness (to noise and dimensionality).

Open source code for detection and characterization of spatio-temporal extreme events

(Task 3.2) An open source toolbox based on spatio-temporal deep learning architectures will be deployed with tunable parameterizations and training modules. Several examples of use will be included to deal with (i) detection and (ii) characterization of extremes. A Jupyter notebook will exemplify tools, tuning and applications in control scenarios, aimed to serve adoption by other members of the consortium (inside WP3 and in collaborations with WP4 and WP7). This deliverable will be also accompanied by a report on the theoretical underpinnings and limitations of the proposed methods in terms of computational efficiency, automatism and robustness (to noise and dimensionality).

Press conference on intermediate results of the project

[task1.2] Press conference on intermediate results of the project. The report will include the press release and the discussion points.

Project website

The website will target both the scientific community and the large public and updated on a regular basis.

Publications

How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

Author(s): Dim Coumou, Paola A Arias, Ana Bastos, Charlotte Kendra Gotangco Gonzales, Gabriele C Hegerl, Pandora Hope, Christopher Jack, Friederike Otto, Fahad Saeed, Olivia Serdeczny, Theodore G Shepherd, Robert Vautard
Published in: PNAS Nexus, Issue 3, 2024, ISSN 2752-6542
Publisher: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae277

Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought

Author(s): Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, Dominik L. Schumacher, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Jakob Zscheischler
Published in: Nature Geoscience, Issue 17, 2024, Page(s) 1100-1107, ISSN 1752-0894
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2

Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales

Author(s): Chiem van Straaten, Dim Coumou, Kirien Whan, Bart van den Hurk, Maurice Schmeits
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2025, Page(s) 887–903, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2023-6

Attributing Venice Acqua Alta events to a changing climate and evaluating the efficacy of MoSE adaptation strategy

Author(s): Davide Faranda, Mireia Ginesta, Tommaso Alberti, Erika Coppola, Marco Anzidei
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 6, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00513-0

Discovering causal relations and equations from data

Author(s): Gustau Camps-Valls, Andreas Gerhardus, Urmi Ninad, Gherardo Varando, Georg Martius, Emili Balaguer-Ballester, Ricardo Vinuesa, Emiliano Diaz, Laure Zanna, Jakob Runge
Published in: Physics Reports, Issue 1044, 2024, Page(s) 1-68, ISSN 0370-1573
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physrep.2023.10.005

Soil heat extremes can outpace air temperature extremes

Author(s): Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Diego G. Miralles, Miguel D. Mahecha, Johannes Quaas, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Zscheischler, Jian Peng
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 13, 2023, Page(s) 1237-1241, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01812-3

Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analogue importance sampling

Author(s): Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Gabriele Messori
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Issue 43, 2024, Page(s) 100651, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100651

A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events

Author(s): Ana Bastos, Sebastian Sippel, Dorothea Frank, Miguel D. Mahecha, Sönke Zaehle, Jakob Zscheischler, Markus Reichstein
Published in: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Issue 4, 2023, Page(s) 333-350, ISSN 2662-138X
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00410-3

Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events

Author(s): Bevacqua, E., De Michele, C., Manning, C., Couasnon, A., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Ramos, A. M., Vignotto, E., Bastos, A., Blesić, S., Durante, F., Hillier, J., Oliveira, S. C., Pinto, J. G., Ragno, E., Rivoire, P., Saunders, K., van der Wiel, K., Wu, W., Zhang, T., Zscheischler, J.
Published in: Earth's Future, 2022, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002340

Hydroclimatic extremes contribute to asymmetric trends in ecosystem productivity loss

Author(s): Jun Li, Emanuele Bevacqua, Zhaoli Wang, Stephen Sitch, Vivek Arora, Almut Arneth, Atul K. Jain, Daniel Goll, Hanqin Tian, Jakob Zscheischler
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 4, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00869-4

Record events attribution in climate studies

Author(s): Julien Worms, Philippe Naveau
Published in: Environmetrics, Issue Volume 33, Issue 8, 2022, ISSN 1180-4009
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/env.2777

Detecting Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Western European Heatwaves Using Deep Learning

Author(s): T. Happé, J. S. Wijnands, M. Á. Fernández-Torres, P. Scussolini, L. Muntjewerf, D. Coumou
Published in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Issue 3, 2024, ISSN 2769-7525
Publisher: American Meteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-23-0107.1

Human influences on spatially compounding flooding and heatwave events in China and future increasing risks

Author(s): Cheng Qian, Yangbo Ye, Emanuele Bevacqua, Jakob Zscheischler
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Issue 42, 2024, Page(s) 100616, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100616

Classification of tropical cyclone containing images using a convolutional neural network: performance and sensitivity to the learning dataset

Author(s): Olivier Boucher; Sébastien Gardoll
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 15, 2022, Page(s) 7051-7073, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-7051-2022

Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest USA and amplified over Western Europe

Author(s): Jitendra Singh, Sebastian Sippel, Erich M. Fischer
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 4, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01096-7

Early snowmelt and polar jet dynamics co–influence recent extreme Siberian fire seasons

Author(s): Rebecca C. Scholten, Dim Coumou, Fei Luo, and Sander Veraverbeke
Published in: Science, Issue Vol 378, Issue 6623, 2022, Page(s) 1005-1009, ISSN 0036-8075
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.abn4419

Harbingers of decades of unnatural disasters

Author(s): Friederike E. L. Otto, Emmanuel Raju
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 4, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00943-x

The AIDE Toolbox: Artificial intelligence for disentangling extreme events [Software and Data Sets]

Author(s): Maria Gonzalez-Calabuig, Jordi Cortés-Andrés, Tristan Keith Ellis Williams, Mengxue Zhang, Oscar Jose Pellicer-Valero, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls
Published in: IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Magazine, Issue 12, 2024, Page(s) 113-118, ISSN 2168-6831
Publisher: IEEE Geosciene and Remote Sensing Society
DOI: 10.1109/mgrs.2024.3382544

Formally combining different lines of evidence in extreme-event attribution

Author(s): Friederike E. L. Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Robert Vautard
Published in: Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, Issue 10, 2024, Page(s) 159-171, ISSN 2364-3587
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/ascmo-10-159-2024

Exploring interactions between socioeconomic context and natural hazards on human population displacement

Author(s): Michele Ronco, José María Tárraga, Jordi Muñoz, María Piles, Eva Sevillano Marco, Qiang Wang, Maria Teresa Miranda Espinosa, Sylvain Ponserre, Gustau Camps-Valls
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 14, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43809-8

Finding the Right XAI Method—A Guide for the Evaluation and Ranking of Explainable AI Methods in Climate Science

Author(s): Philine Lou Bommer, Marlene Kretschmer, Anna Hedström, Dilyara Bareeva, Marina M.-C. Höhne
Published in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Issue 3, 2024, ISSN 2769-7525
Publisher: American MEteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-23-0074.1

How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation

Author(s): Pascal Yiou, Robert Vautard, Yoann Robin, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Fabio D’Andrea, Robin Noyelle
Published in: Climate Services, Issue 36, 2024, Page(s) 100518, ISSN 2405-8807
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100518

Skillful U.S. Soy Yield Forecasts at Presowing Lead Times

Author(s): Sem Vijverberg, Raed Hamed, Dim Coumou
Published in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Issue 2, 2025, ISSN 2769-7525
Publisher: American Meteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-21-0009.1

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Author(s): Iris Elisabeth de Vries; Sebastian Sippel; Angeline Greene Pendergrass; Reto Knutti
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 14, 2023, Page(s) 81-100, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-81-2023

Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Author(s): Emanuele Bevacqua, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Aglaé Jézéquel, Flavio Lehner, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Jakob Zscheischler
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 14, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37847-5

Time of emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties

Author(s): Bastien François, Mathieu Vrac
Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Issue 23, 2025, Page(s) 21-44, ISSN 1684-9981
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023

Heat extremes linearly shift with global warming, with frequency doubling per decade since 1979

Author(s): Robert Vautard, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Izidine Pinto, Friederieke E L Otto
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 19, 2024, Page(s) 094033, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad63be

Biodiversity and Climate Extremes: Known Interactions and Research Gaps

Author(s): M. D. Mahecha, A. Bastos, F. J. Bohn, N. Eisenhauer, H. Feilhauer, T. Hickler, H. Kalesse‐Los, M. Migliavacca, F. E. L. Otto, J. Peng, S. Sippel, I. Tegen, A. Weigelt, M. Wendisch, C. Wirth, D. Al‐Halbouni, H. Deneke, D. Doktor, S. Dunker, G. Duveiller, A. Ehrlich, A. Foth, A. García‐García, C. A. Guerra, C. Guimarães‐Steinicke, H. Hartmann, S. Henning, H. Herrmann, P. Hu, C. Ji, T. Kat
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 12, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef003963

Dynamical footprints of Hurricanes in the Tropical Dynamics

Author(s): Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Pascal Yiou, Soulivanh Thao, Flavio Pons, Berengere Dubrulle
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2022, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0093732

Developing Low‐Likelihood Climate Storylines for Extreme Precipitation Over Central Europe

Author(s): C. Gessner, E. M. Fischer, U. Beyerle, R. Knutti
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 11, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef003628

Uncertainty Quantification When Learning Dynamical Models and Solvers With Variational Methods

Author(s): N. Lafon, R. Fablet, P. Naveau
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Issue 15, 2023, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022ms003446

Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events

Author(s): Bevacqua, E., Zappa, G., Lehner, F., Zscheischler, J.
Published in: Nature Climate Change, 2022, ISSN 1758-6798
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01309-5

ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate

Author(s): Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Robert Vautard
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Issue 5, 2024, Page(s) 959-983, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024

Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought

Author(s): Dominik L. Schumacher, Mariam Zachariah, Friederike Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Dorothy Heinrich, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Mathias Hauser, Martin Hirschi, Verena Bessenbacher, Lukas Gudmundsson, Hiroko K. Beaudoing, Matthew Rodell, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Luke J. Harrington, Flavio Lehner, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Sonia I. Senevi
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 15, 2024, Page(s) 131-154, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-131-2024

Attributing Compound Events to Anthropogenic Climate Change

Author(s): Jakob Zscheischler, Flavio Lehner
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Issue Volume 103, Issue 3, 2022, Page(s) E936–E953, ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0116.1

Combinations of drivers that most favor the occurrence of daily precipitation extremes

Author(s): Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Emanuele Bevacqua, Luis Gimeno
Published in: Atmospheric Research, Issue 294, 2023, Page(s) 106959, ISSN 0169-8095
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106959

Combining climate models and observations to predict the time remaining until regional warming thresholds are reached

Author(s): Elizabeth A Barnes, Noah S Diffenbaugh, Sonia I Seneviratne
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 20, 2024, Page(s) 014008, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca

Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author(s): Friederike E L Otto, Mariam Zachariah, Fahad Saeed, Ayesha Siddiqi, Shahzad Kamil, Haris Mushtaq, T Arulalan, Krishna AchutaRao, S T Chaithra, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Robert Vautard, Gerbrand Koren, Izidine Pinto, Piotr Wolski, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Lisa Thalheimer, Emmanuel Raju, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Luke J Harrington, Ben Clarke
Published in: Environmental Research: Climate, Issue 2, 2023, Page(s) 025001, ISSN 2752-5295
Publisher: IOP Science
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/acbfd5

Causality and the fate of climate litigation: The Role of the social Superstructure Narrative

Author(s): Friederike E. L. Otto; Petra Minnerop; Emmanuel Raju; Luke J. Harrington; Rupert F. Stuart‐Smith; Emily Boyd; Rachel James; Richard Jones; Kristian C. Lauta
Published in: Global Policies, Issue Volume 13, Issue 5, 2022, Page(s) 623-833, ISSN 1758-5880
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.13113

Reconstruction of zonal precipitation from sparse historical observations using climate model information and statistical learning

Author(s): Egli, M., Sippel, S., Pendergrass, A. G., de Vries, I., & Knutti, R.
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 49, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099826

Regional asymmetry in the response of global vegetation growth to springtime compound climate events

Author(s): Jun Li; Emanuele Bevacqua; Chi Chen; Zhaoli Wang; Xiaohong Chen; Ranga B. Myneni; Xushu Wu; Chong-Yu Xu; Zhenxing Zhang; Jakob Zscheischler
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 3;123, 2022, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Communications Earth & Environment
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00455-0

Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes

Author(s): Dominik L. Schumacher, Jitendra Singh, Mathias Hauser, Erich M. Fischer, Martin Wild, Sonia I. Seneviratne
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 5, 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01332-8

Identifying probabilistic weather regimes targeted to a local-scale impact variable

Author(s): Fiona R. Spuler, Marlene Kretschmer, Yevgeniya Kovalchuk, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Theodore G. Shepherd
Published in: Environmental Data Science, Issue 3, 2025, ISSN 2634-4602
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/eds.2024.29

Deep Learning With Noisy Labels for Spatiotemporal Drought Detection

Author(s): Jordi Cortés-Andrés, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls
Published in: IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Issue 62, 2024, Page(s) 1-13, ISSN 0196-2892
Publisher: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
DOI: 10.1109/tgrs.2024.3504340

Correcting Subseasonal Forecast Errors with an Explainable ANN to Understand Misrepresented Sources of Predictability of European Summer Temperatures

Author(s): Chiem van Straaten, Kirien Whan, Dim Coumou, Bart van den Hurk, Maurice Schmeits
Published in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Issue 2, 2025, Page(s) 1-21, ISSN 2769-7525
Publisher: American Meteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-22-0047.1

Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends

Author(s): Robert Vautard, Julien Cattiaux, Tamara Happé, Jitendra Singh, Rémy Bonnet, Christophe Cassou, Dim Coumou, Fabio D’Andrea, Davide Faranda, Erich Fischer, Aurélien Ribes, Sebastian Sippel, Pascal Yiou
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 14, 2024, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3

Strong Linkage Between Observed Daily Precipitation Extremes and Anthropogenic Emissions Across the Contiguous United States

Author(s): J. S. Nanditha, Gabriele Villarini, Hanbeen Kim, Philippe Naveau
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 51, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl109553

Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives

Author(s): Stefano Materia, Lluís Palma García, Chiem van Straaten, Sungmin O, Antonios Mamalakis, Leone Cavicchia, Dim Coumou, Paolo de Luca, Marlene Kretschmer, Markus Donat
Published in: WIREs Climate Change, Issue 15, 2024, ISSN 1757-7780
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.914

High return level estimates of daily ERA-5 precipitation in Europe estimated using regionalized extreme value distributions

Author(s): Pauline Rivoire, Philomène Le Gall, Anne-Catherine Favre, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Issue Volume 38, 2022, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100500

Decadal to centennial extreme precipitation disaster gaps — Long-term variability and implications for extreme value modelling

Author(s): Joel Zeder, Erich M. Fischer
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Issue 43, 2024, Page(s) 100636, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100636

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021

Author(s): Faranda, D., Bourdin, S., Ginesta, M., Krouma, M., Messori, G., Noyelle, R., Pons, F., and Yiou, P.
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Issue 3, 1311–1340, 2022, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022

Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting

Author(s): E. M. Fischer, U. Beyerle, L. Bloin-Wibe, C. Gessner, V. Humphrey, F. Lehner, A. G. Pendergrass, S. Sippel, J. Zeder, R. Knutti
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 14, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40112-4

Attribution of Extreme Events to Climate Change

Author(s): Friederike E.L. Otto
Published in: Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Issue 48, 2023, Page(s) 813-828, ISSN 1543-5938
Publisher: Annual Reviews, Inc.
DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112621-083538

Human influence on growing-period frosts like the early April 2021 in Central France

Author(s): Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1684-9981
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-41

Challenges in Attributing the 2022 Australian Rain Bomb to Climate Change

Author(s): Cadiou, C., Noyelle, R., Malhomme, N., Faranda, D.
Published in: Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2022, ISSN 1976-7951
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1007/s13143-022-00305-1

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe

Author(s): Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Aglae Jezequel, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Issue 120, 2023, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

Multimodel Errors and Emergence of Times in Climate Attribution Studies

Author(s): Naveau, P., Thao, S.
Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue Volume 35, Issue 14, 2022, Page(s) 4791–4804, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0332.1

Drivers and Mechanisms of the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Author(s): D. L. Schumacher, M. Hauser, S. I. Seneviratne
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue Volume 10, Issue 12, 2022, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022ef002967

Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution

Author(s): Aglaé Jézéquel, Ana Bastos, Davide Faranda, Joyce Kimutai, Natacha Le Grix, Anna M Wilson, Samuel Rufat, Theodore G Shepherd, Rupert F Stuart-Smith, Anne F Van Loon, Emanuele Bevacqua, Fabio D’Andrea, Flavio Lehner, Elisabeth A Lloyd, Julia Moemken, Alexandre M Ramos, Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler
Published in: Environmental Research: Climate, Issue 3, 2024, Page(s) 042003, ISSN 2752-5295
Publisher: IOP Science
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad7527

Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective

Author(s): Ben Clarke; Friederike Otto; Rupert Stuart-Smith; Luke Harrington
Published in: Environmental Research Climate, Issue 1, 2022, ISSN 2752-5295
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ac6e7d

Robust detection of forced warming in the presence of potentially large climate variability

Author(s): Sebastian Sippel, Nicolai Meinshausen, Enikő Székely, Erich Fischer, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Reto Knutti
Published in: Science Advances, Issue Vol. 7, No. 43, 2021, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abh4429

Extreme heat wave sampling and prediction with analog Markov chain and comparisons with deep learning

Author(s): George Miloshevich, Dario Lucente, Pascal Yiou, Freddy Bouchet
Published in: Environmental Data Science, Issue 3, 2024, ISSN 2634-4602
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/eds.2024.7

Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes

Author(s): Elizabeth J. Kendon, Erich M. Fischer, Chris J. Short
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 14, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36499-9

Insights into the Drivers and Spatiotemporal Trends of Extreme Mediterranean Wildfires with Statistical Deep Learning

Author(s): Jordan Richards, Raphaël Huser, Emanuele Bevacqua, Jakob Zscheischler
Published in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Issue 2, 2024, ISSN 2769-7525
Publisher: American Meteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-22-0095.1

Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes

Author(s): Lucas Fery, Davide Faranda
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Issue 5, 2025, Page(s) 439-461, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024

Persistent anticyclonic conditions and climate change exacerbated the exceptional 2022 European-Mediterranean drought

Author(s): Davide Faranda, Salvatore Pascale, Burak Bulut
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbc37

Maximal reachable temperatures for Western Europe in current climate

Author(s): Robin Noyelle, Yi Zhang, Pascal Yiou, Davide Faranda
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 18, 2023, Page(s) 094061, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acf679

Time of Emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties

Author(s): Bastien François; Mathieu Vrac
Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Issue 23, 2023, Page(s) 21-44, ISSN 1684-9981
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-127

Equalising the evidence base for adaptation and loss and damages

Author(s): Friederike E. L. Otto, Frederick Fabian
Published in: Global Policy, Issue 15, 2024, Page(s) 64-74, ISSN 1758-5880
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.13269

Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations

Author(s): Sebastian Sippel, Elizabeth C. Kent, Nicolai Meinshausen, Duo Chan, Christopher Kadow, Raphael Neukom, Erich M. Fischer, Vincent Humphrey, Robert Rohde, Iris de Vries, Reto Knutti
Published in: Nature, Issue 635, 2025, Page(s) 618-624, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08230-1

Stable sums to infer high return levels of multivariate rainfall time series

Author(s): Gloria Buriticá, Philippe Naveau
Published in: Environmetrics, 2022, ISSN 1180-4009
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/env.2782

Identifying compound weather drivers of forest biomass loss with generative deep learning

Author(s): Mohit Anand, Friedrich J. Bohn, Gustau Camps-Valls, Rico Fischer, Andreas Huth, Lily-belle Sweet, Jakob Zscheischler
Published in: Environmental Data Science, Issue 3, 2024, ISSN 2634-4602
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/eds.2024.2

Spatial variability in Alpine reservoir regulation: deriving reservoir operations from streamflow using generalized additive models

Author(s): Manuela Irene Brunner, Philippe Naveau
Published in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Issue 27, 2025, Page(s) 673-687, ISSN 1607-7938
Publisher: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
DOI: 10.5194/hess-27-673-2023

The Effect of a Short Observational Record on the Statistics of Temperature Extremes

Author(s): Joel Zeder, Sebastian Sippel, Olivier C. Pasche, Sebastian Engelke, Erich M. Fischer
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 50, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl104090

A shifting climate: <scp>New</scp> paradigms and challenges for (early career) scientists in extreme weather research

Author(s): Marlene Kretschmer, Aglaé Jézéquel, Zachary M. Labe, Danielle Touma
Published in: Atmospheric Science Letters, Issue 25, 2024, ISSN 1530-261X
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/asl.1268

A meta-Gaussian distribution for sub-hourly rainfall

Author(s): Marie Boutigny, Pierre Ailliot, Aurore Chaubet, Philippe Naveau, Benoît Saussol
Published in: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Issue 37, 2023, Page(s) 3915-3927, ISSN 1436-3240
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-023-02487-0

Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods

Author(s): Shijie Jiang, Larisa Tarasova, Guo Yu, Jakob Zscheischler
Published in: Science Advances, Issue 10, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Scienc
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adl4005

Winter climate preconditioning of summer vegetation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere

Author(s): Mohit Anand, Raed Hamed, Nora Linscheid, Patrícia S Silva, Julie Andre, Jakob Zscheischler, Freya K Garry, Ana Bastos
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 19, 2024, Page(s) 094045, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad627d

Compound wind and precipitation extremes across the Indo-Pacific: climatology, variability and drivers

Author(s): Delei Li, Yang Chen, Martina Messmer, Yuchao Zhu, Jianlong Feng, Baoshu Yin, Emanuele Bevacqua
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 49, 14, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl098594

Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?

Author(s): Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou
Published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Issue 5, 2024, Page(s) 943-957, ISSN 2698-4016
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024

Foundations of attribution in climate-change science

Author(s): Elisabeth A Lloyd, Theodore G Shepherd
Published in: Environmental Research: Climate, Issue 2, 2023, Page(s) 035014, ISSN 2752-5295
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/aceea1

Causal inference for time series

Author(s): Jakob Runge, Andreas Gerhardus, Gherardo Varando, Veronika Eyring, Gustau Camps-Valls
Published in: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Issue 4, 2023, Page(s) 487-505, ISSN 2662-138X
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00431-y

Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass

Author(s): Natacha Le Grix, William L. Cheung, Gabriel Reygondeau, Jakob Zscheischler, Thomas L. Frölicher
Published in: Global Change Biology, Issue 29, 2025, Page(s) 6478-6492, ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16968

Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics

Author(s): Pascal Yiou, Camille Cadiou, Davide Faranda, Aglaé Jézéquel, Nemo Malhomme, George Miloshevich, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 6, 2023, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00500-5

Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides

Author(s): Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Carlo De Michele
Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Issue 24, 2025, Page(s) 2689-2704, ISSN 1684-9981
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024

Joint stochastic simulation of extreme coastal and offshore significant wave heights

Author(s): Juliette Legrand, Pierre Ailliot, Philippe Naveau, Nicolas Raillard
Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Issue 17, 2023, ISSN 1932-6157
Publisher: Institute of Mathematical Statistics
DOI: 10.1214/23-aoas1766

Domain knowledge-driven variational recurrent networks for drought monitoring

Author(s): Mengxue Zhang, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls
Published in: Remote Sensing of Environment, Issue 311, 2024, Page(s) 114252, ISSN 0034-4257
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114252

Summer Deep Depressions Increase Over the Eastern North Atlantic

Author(s): Fabio D'Andrea, Fabio D'andrea, Jean-Philippe Duvel, Gwendal Rivière, Robert Vautard, Christophe Cassou, Julien Cattiaux, Davide Faranda, Tamara Happé, Aglaé Jézéquel, Aurelien Ribes, Pascal Yiou
Published in: Geophysical Research LEtters, 2024, ISSN 1944-8007
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.170785883.38291063/v1

Multi-Modal Learning for Geospatial Vegetation Forecasting

Author(s): Vitus Benson, Claire Robin, Christian Requena-Mesa, Lazaro Alonso, Nuno Carvalhais, José Cortés, Zhihan Gao, Nora Linscheid, Mélanie Weynants, Markus Reichstein
Published in: 2024 IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2024, Page(s) 27788-27799
Publisher: IEEE
DOI: 10.1109/cvpr52733.2024.02625

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