Towards a Resilient Future of Europe

Projektinformationen

FutuRes

ID Finanzhilfevereinbarung: 101094741

DOI

10.3030/101094741

Projekt abgeschlossen

EK-Unterschriftsdatum 13 Dezember 2022

Startdatum 1 Februar 2023

Enddatum 31 Januar 2026

Finanziert unter

• Culture, creativity and inclusive society

Gesamtkosten

€ 2 740 550,00

EU-Beitrag

€ 2 740 550,00

Koordiniert durch

UNIVERSITA COMMERCIALE LUIGI BOCCONI
Italy

CORDIS bietet Links zu öffentlichen Ergebnissen und Veröffentlichungen von HORIZONT-Projekten.

Links zu Ergebnissen und Veröffentlichungen von RP7-Projekten sowie Links zu einigen Typen spezifischer Ergebnisse wie Datensätzen und Software werden dynamisch von OpenAIRE abgerufen.

Leistungen

Documents, reports (18)

Working paper: Towards resilient adult-stage life courses in Europe

Use SHARE data and sequence analysis to identify the differences in adult life-course patterns in Europe. Again, using logistic regression techniques, we analyse the relationship between life-course patterns and selected resilience markers.

Second Strategic Foresight Documents (Scenarios on Regional Issues)

Scenario/Strategic Foresight Documents and will flow into the policy dialogues and broader stakeholder events of the PolicyLab.

Resilience analysis

Study the impact of economic and demographic shocks (e.g., Covid-19 pandemic, rapidtechnological change, automation) on economic growth and on the redistributive properties of old age pension systems across heterogeneous individuals. The analysis will be performed using a set of alternative scenarios based on official scenarios as well as those proposed by WP6.

Working paper: Towards resilient early-stage life courses in Europe

Use GGS data to implement sequence analysis (see explanation in the methods section) to identify differences in early adult life-course patterns. Logistic regression models will be used to analyse the statistical relationship between life-course patterns (including fertility) and selected resilience markers.

First Strategic Foresight Documents (Scenarios on Pan-European Issues)

Scenario/Strategic Foresight Documents and will flow into the policy dialogues and broader stakeholder events of the PolicyLab.

Technical report: Specification of dynamic models for examining resilience
Working paper: Inter- and intra-generational relations in the light of resilient and non-resilient life courses

The earlier analysis of the life-course patterns is used to analyse the inter- and intra-generational relations (e.g. exchanges of financial and non-financial support, proximity of family members, and frequency of contacts).

Final Discussion Paper
Working paper: Resilience as a theoretical foundation for fertility dynamics

The deliverable involves the implementation of regression models where the focus lies on fertility ideals, intentions and realisation, all contained within the GGS survey. Hold up results to measures of resilience.

Technical report: Assumptions for the DGEM (Individual life-courses)

Development of assumptions for the dynamic general equilibrium model, which includes the scenario life-course developments, based on the evidence analysed in the previous deliverables.

Report on the role of resilience in policy design: What makes policies resilient-enhancing in a time of ageing

With direct engagement with policymakers and co-production with stakeholders (with thecollaboration of AGE platform), this deliverable will conceptualise resilience as it applies throughout the life-course. Taking a multi-stakeholder approach, we invite policymakers and stakeholders in a workshop to make contributions to the idea of resilience-enhancing policies. The output of these consultations will be reported in a concept note with guidelines for resilience-enhancing policy design.

Policy paper: Resilience and vulnerability – migration, ageing and technological change
Policy paper: Resilient options for future European welfare model – A scenario analysis
Technical report: Migration, ageing and resilience – setting up policy scenarios
Working paper: Resilience and policy: What is resilient policy design with respect to European fertility?
Report on ageism: Overcoming ageism through law and policies, education and intergenerational exchange: facts and guidelines

Through multi-stakeholder consultation, this deliverable will explore how ageism appears in existing policy design (e.g. concrete features of policies that either bring about age discrimination, such as age limits or policies that may uphold ageist attitudes), but also the potential of sound policies to increase awareness of and to disrupt ageism. The outcomes of these consultations will be synthesised and published as a manual and will be used to guide Task 1.3 and other WPs so that resilient policies can tap into the longevity revolution and foster intergenerational solidarity.

Working paper: Fertility trends in Europe: structural change, shocks and resilience

Implementation of regression models where the focus lies on fertility ideals, intentions and realisation, all contained within the GGS survey. Hold up results to measures of resilience.

First Policy Brief

Two policy briefs about the outcomes of the events, a final discussion paper and so-called digests, i.e. summaries of research results, will provide a concise and succinct synthesis of key FutuRes findings on a regular basis. All these information materials are particularly appreciated by decision-makers who have limited time capacities to follow the debate about the outcomes of the project. As open-access publications, they are also available to a broader public.

Data sets, microdata, etc (1)

Policy review: A framework for understanding resilience and ageism in policies in Europe

This deliverable starts from existing reviews concerning policies related to the life-course and ageing in wealthy countries in 2010 and onwards and will characterise those policies in terms of an evaluation and score system derived from the previous two deliverables. That is, every policy or policy package will be classified in terms of its ability to enhance resilience and disrupt ageism. The classification will integrate dimensions such as the levelon which policies exist and across generations, and the three policy themes outlined in the methods section.

Demonstrators, pilots, prototypes (1)

Theoretical foundation of the dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, heterogeneous households and family networks

Modelling household decisions: education, savings, consumption/leisure, health investment, labour supply in the market and at home, and the retirement age. Modelling the behaviour of firms. Modelling the public sector and especially the main parametric components of old age security systems, as well as education, health and care systems. Derive the general equilibrium conditions and develop the simulation code.

Veröffentlichungen

Peer reviewed articles (5)

Climate change worries and fertility intentions. Insights from three EU countries.

Autoren: Elena Bastianelli
Veröffentlicht in: Journal of Marriage and Family, 2024, ISSN 0000-0000
Herausgeber: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/JOMF.13048

Mixed-frequency VAR: a new approach to forecasting migration in Europe using macroeconomic data

Autoren: Emily R. Barker, Jakub Bijak
Veröffentlicht in: Data & Policy, Ausgabe 7, 2025, ISSN 2632-3249
Herausgeber: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
DOI: 10.1017/DAP.2024.82

Family ideals in Italy and Spain: towards the end of the traditional Southern European family model?

Autoren: Arnstein Aassve, Alícia Adserà, Elena Bastianelli, Letizia Mencarini
Veröffentlicht in: European Sociological Review, 2025, ISSN 0266-7215
Herausgeber: Oxford University Press (OUP)
DOI: 10.1093/ESR/JCAF055

Assortative Mating Across the Full Spectrum of Mental Disorders: A Nationwide Finnish Register Study

Autoren: Kateryna Golovina, Mai Gutvilig, Ripsa Niemi, Christian Hakulinen
Veröffentlicht in: Biological Psychiatry Global Open Science, Ausgabe 6, 2026, ISSN 2667-1743
Herausgeber: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.BPSGOS.2025.100642

Mental disorders and having a first child among young adults: a nationwide register-based cohort study

Autoren: Kateryna Golovina; Ripsa Niemi; Mai Gutvilig; Markus Jokela; Marko Elovainio; Christian Hakulinen
Veröffentlicht in: BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, 2024, ISSN 1471-0528
Herausgeber: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/1471-0528.18151