Objective Make use of the data bases, crop and soils knowledge and the validated crop yield models that are available within I.R.S.A. for the assessment of the possible impacts of climatic change on the present agricultural production levels and potentials of the E.C. Progress to end 1991 The proposed research area is new. However, the proposed study will be highly complementary to, but at the same time quite distinct from other studies in this field because : (1) it will be carried out for the whole of the E.C.; (2) it will use long historical series of real daily meteorological data for a network of 350 weather stations. (Most, if not all, of the studies on the same subject use monthly meteorological data or longterm monthly mean values or even simulated series.) (3) it will make use of several years of daily NOAA/AVHRR data covering the whole of the E.C. and specially processed for agricultural applications. (4) it will make use of the most recent knowledge on the spatial interpolation of meteorological data and on the calculation of global radiation and evapotranspiration. All this was specially developed for use in a European context; (5) it will use the most recent version of the E.C. 1:1.000.000 soil map and derived Available Water Capacity map. In addition to the above listed information, the data bases will also be integrated in the research. Information Network for the Agricultural Counts, the Directorate General XI "CORINE" data bases and the CRONOS and REGIO data bases of EUROSTAT will also be used. The operational models that are already available refer to (1) the aerawise monitoring of vegetation conditions, yield indicators and alarm situations, (2) crop growth and yield simulation, (3) the estimation of reference potential evatransportation and (4) the estimation of global radiation from cloud cover or sunshine duration. Detailed description of work foreseen in 1992 (expected results) The total duration of the research programme will be 2 years. It is proposed to apply the study at NUTS 1 level and to limit the research initially to 2 or 3 of the E.C's most important crops, that represent at the same time a large variety of growing conditions and requirement, such as wheat, wine grape and sugar beet. The work foreseen is : 1.- Careful screening, of the meteorological data sets, in order to exclude as from the beginning possible sources of mistakes or errors due to unrealistic meteorological data. 2.- Assessment of the agro-pedo-climatological input variables and model outputs that are likely to provide the most relevant information in relation to the research object. 3.- Quantification of the impacts of various possible scenarios of climatic change, on crop production and on crop production potential for each of the E.C's NUTS 1 region and for each of the proposed crops. 4.- Cartography of the results of the previous activity. 5.- Provide preliminary indications, on what may be the impacts of climatic change on crop distribution and agricultural land use in the E.C. Two scientists should be attracted. They should be skilled researchers in : - biological and agrometeorological modelling (crop simulation, etc.); - modelling of hydrologicals cycles; - Climatology or agro-climatology; - Geography, as far as relevant to the proposed research. Short description of the 1992 activities, as the research programme would be carried out over a total period of 2 years. Programme(s) JRC-EXPLORES 1C - Specific research programmes (EEC) to be implemented by the Joint Research Centre - Exploratory research -, 1988-1991 Topic(s) Data not available Call for proposal Data not available Funding Scheme Data not available Coordinator Joint Research Centre (JRC) EU contribution No data Address Sito di Ispra 21020 Ispra Italy See on map Total cost No data
