During the whole project the work performed toward the stated objectives and the main results are as follows.
1.AWSoM a code to model the solar atmosphere, was modified to run in real time. It has been coupled to SWIFT, enabling forecasts of the solar wind at L1 to be made based on GONG magnetograms. The resulting forecasts are available via a web interface.
2.New forecast models for Kp, Dst and AE have been developed by IRF, SRI and USFD. Based on different techniques (ANN, NARMAX, and GNM) these models are run using inputs from the satellites ACE or DSCVR or the outputs from the SWIFT/AWSoM model.
3.Using data from the Cluster and THEMIS missions as well as solar wind measurments from ACE and DSCVR, the NARMAX ERR analysis method was used to determine the most important driving parameters for chorus, hiss, and magnetosonic waves within the inner magnetosphere. These parameters were then used to develop a new set of statistical wave models to characterise the interaction between these wave modes and the local particle population.
4.Results from the IMPTAM numerical simulation code have been significantly improved following improvements resulting from the incorporation of more realistic boundary conditions and electron lifetimes. Output from the IMPTAM model is used to define the low energy seed population of electrons that is used within the VERB code. Using the forecasts of the solar wind, the IMPTAM code was modified to provide online realtime forecasts. The PROGRESS web site provides access to a number of data products including comparisons with GOES 15 measurements, equatorial maps, and radial distance-energy and energy-time spectrograms for Galileo, MEO, and Van Allen Probe orbits.
5.The current set of NARMAX flux prediction models operated by USFD has been extended to cover all energies measured by the GOES 13 EPS instrument. The VERB code was extended by incorporating data assimilation techniques, allowing it to import measurements for comparative and corrective purposes. A new coupled model, VNC, in which the PROGRESS forecasts for GEO electron fluxes and Kp are used as inputs to the VERB model, has been developed.
6.The results menu on the PROGRESS web site provides access to the online forecasts of geomagnetic indices, sets of statistical wave models, electron flux forecasts at GEO, IMPTAM (FMI), VERB (GFZ), and VNC (USFD) forecasts for the electron environment of the inner magnetosphere. In addition, the orbit tool can provide along orbit electron flux forecasts for user specified satellites. The home page displays a table of the latest solar wind conditions, together with forecasts of geomagnetic indices and electron fluxes at GEO. Plots of these data are also available and numerical values downloadable.
