Periodic Reporting for period 3 - MaCoBioS (Marine Coastal Ecosystems Biodiversity and Services in a Changing World)
Reporting period: 2023-06-01 to 2024-11-30
Marine and coastal ecosystems (MCEs) such as seagrass beds or kelp forests are vital for human health and well-being as they provide us with many services such as food, purification of waters, protection against floods and a buffer against climate change. As of 2017, according to the United Nations, about 40% of the world’s population was living within 100 km of the coast, representing ca. 2.4 billion people who directly depend on these ecosystems. However, MCEs are threatened globally by increased environmental pressures, either related to climate change or more direct human impacts such as pollution or overfishing. Addressing the degradation of MCEs is thus a global priority and a European one. The main challenge to ensure efficient and integrated management and conservation strategies for European MCEs to face climate change is to fill knowledge gaps on inter-relations between climate change, biodiversity and ecosystem services and ensure an effective transfer of knowledge to relevant stakeholders.
To help address this challenge, MaCoBioS has developed empirical models on the interaction between climate change, biodiversity, functions and services in marine and coastal ecosystems. It has also established a framework to assess the vulnerability of marine socio-ecological systems under climate change scenarios and evaluate the effectiveness of nature-based solutions in enhancing the resilience capacity of MCEs. These results provide evidence-based guidance for marine policy formulation and assist in EU strategies on MCEs, biodiversity and climate change.
To help address this challenge, MaCoBioS has developed empirical models on the interaction between climate change, biodiversity, functions and services in marine and coastal ecosystems. It has also established a framework to assess the vulnerability of marine socio-ecological systems under climate change scenarios and evaluate the effectiveness of nature-based solutions in enhancing the resilience capacity of MCEs. These results provide evidence-based guidance for marine policy formulation and assist in EU strategies on MCEs, biodiversity and climate change.
To set the ground on state-of-the-art, multiple literature reviews were conducted on (i) the effects of climate change and local stressors on MCEs, (ii) methodological approaches for multi-risk and cumulative impact appraisal in MCEs, (iii) the evaluation of coastal communities’ adaptive capacity, (iv) NBSs’ social and economic effectiveness, and (v) the national to subnational policy framework for all case studies with a focus on biodiversity protection and climate change. In the field, biodiversity monitoring was implemented with cost-effective and non-intrusive techniques to sample at fine and large scales across a gradient of environmental conditions using a combination of eDNA, bioacoustics, visual census, remote sensing and palaeoclimatology.
The compilation of existing and collected data fed the application of advanced modelling approaches to explore the links between biodiversity and ecosystem services. Still, semi-quantitative conceptual models have been computed from expert knowledge and literature review to illustrate the complex interactions between climate change, local stressors and MCEs’ ecological components and how these ecosystems can be monitored (indicators linked to the Good Environmental State descriptors of the MSFD). Following the co-design of the multi-risks assessment framework (MRAF), all available data were analysed using Machine Learning-based models in the Mediterranean and Northern-Europe ecoregions under a baseline and future scenarios, considering both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 while fine scale spatio-temporal Bayesian Networks, co-designed and fine-tuned with local stakeholders have been developed to disentangle the ecosystem services capacity and flow under different ‘what-if’ scenarios in Italy, Spain and Martinique. Considering future scenarios, other frameworks have been designed for (i) applying index-based adaptive capacity assessment approaches, and (ii) identifying the appropriate interventions to address societal challenges in marine coastal socio-ecological systems (Potential Blue Interventions Support tool), supported by NBS suitability mapping.
Following the inventory of the most relevant stakeholders for the project, dialogue was initiated through online-based activities, including a public awareness survey on climate change to collect their concerns on the effects of climate change, and in-person through local and ecoregional workshops. Engagement has been conducted at international, national, and local levels, along with active cooperation with other projects. All the tools and outputs produced by the project have been gathered in our user-friendly MaCoBioS Blue NBS Toolbox and our work has been disseminated through many international conferences and scientific papers, with communication activities promoted through our website and its ‘News & Views’ section, promotional videos, a comic book, and social media presence, and culminating with the organisation of the Blue NBS week at UNESCO House, Paris, in November 2024.
The compilation of existing and collected data fed the application of advanced modelling approaches to explore the links between biodiversity and ecosystem services. Still, semi-quantitative conceptual models have been computed from expert knowledge and literature review to illustrate the complex interactions between climate change, local stressors and MCEs’ ecological components and how these ecosystems can be monitored (indicators linked to the Good Environmental State descriptors of the MSFD). Following the co-design of the multi-risks assessment framework (MRAF), all available data were analysed using Machine Learning-based models in the Mediterranean and Northern-Europe ecoregions under a baseline and future scenarios, considering both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 while fine scale spatio-temporal Bayesian Networks, co-designed and fine-tuned with local stakeholders have been developed to disentangle the ecosystem services capacity and flow under different ‘what-if’ scenarios in Italy, Spain and Martinique. Considering future scenarios, other frameworks have been designed for (i) applying index-based adaptive capacity assessment approaches, and (ii) identifying the appropriate interventions to address societal challenges in marine coastal socio-ecological systems (Potential Blue Interventions Support tool), supported by NBS suitability mapping.
Following the inventory of the most relevant stakeholders for the project, dialogue was initiated through online-based activities, including a public awareness survey on climate change to collect their concerns on the effects of climate change, and in-person through local and ecoregional workshops. Engagement has been conducted at international, national, and local levels, along with active cooperation with other projects. All the tools and outputs produced by the project have been gathered in our user-friendly MaCoBioS Blue NBS Toolbox and our work has been disseminated through many international conferences and scientific papers, with communication activities promoted through our website and its ‘News & Views’ section, promotional videos, a comic book, and social media presence, and culminating with the organisation of the Blue NBS week at UNESCO House, Paris, in November 2024.
MaCoBioS advanced the EU’s climate-change predictive capacity by developing and applying innovative models that better capture complex interactions between climate change, biodiversity, marine and coastal ecosystems, and their services, such as Structural Equation Models or Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM). Conceptual Models relying on FCM are time- & cost-effective to develop, allow to incorporate multiple knowledge sources enabling a good understanding of the system and can be easily adapted to any local context. The use of long-term datasets could validate the outputs of scenarios supporting policymakers in increasing efforts to halt biodiversity loss and contributing to the long-term strategic biodiversity research agenda for the EU and its next research work programmes. Furthermore, the outputs on MCEs tipping points and safe operating space not only provide guidance for local management measures to be implemented but feed future climate change scenarios to account for MCEs’ collapse when environmental limits have been crossed. Machine Learning Cumulative Impact Assessment (MARITIME) models allowed us to map and analyse the effects of multiple interacting pressures on marine and coastal ecosystems and the service of climate regulation under various future scenarios (e.g. Mediterranean seagrass beds in 2050 & 2100 under RCP4.5 & RCP8.5).
The methodological framework for assessing adaptive capacity in coastal social-ecological systems (COAST-ADAPT) equips stakeholders with practical insights to support decision-making processes aimed at reducing marine socio-ecological systems' vulnerability, enhancing community resilience, and guiding the implementation of targeted adaptation strategies, while PBI-Support, co-developed with stakeholders to guide NBS implementation in the marine and coastal environment, provides an integrated evidence-based conceptual framework connecting societal challenges, ecosystem services, ecological condition, and management approaches to support decision-makers and practitioners in the initial planning stages. Coupled with two other tools, MARITIME and MAS-NBS, this tool could support the 2nd pillar of the Roadmap on NBS (closing the gaps between research and implementation) as it supports practitioners in the implementation of blue NBSs, helping the EU reach one of its priority objectives: making a step towards smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth.
Through its Blue NBS Toolbox, including policy briefs and decision-support tools, MaCoBioS has provided substantial outputs to support the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change and the EU Biodiversity Strategy. Its dissemination has reached a wide audience, ensuring continued impact and supporting the EU in meeting its objectives and engagements and reinforce its resilience to face climate change through refined biodiversity and climate change policies.
The methodological framework for assessing adaptive capacity in coastal social-ecological systems (COAST-ADAPT) equips stakeholders with practical insights to support decision-making processes aimed at reducing marine socio-ecological systems' vulnerability, enhancing community resilience, and guiding the implementation of targeted adaptation strategies, while PBI-Support, co-developed with stakeholders to guide NBS implementation in the marine and coastal environment, provides an integrated evidence-based conceptual framework connecting societal challenges, ecosystem services, ecological condition, and management approaches to support decision-makers and practitioners in the initial planning stages. Coupled with two other tools, MARITIME and MAS-NBS, this tool could support the 2nd pillar of the Roadmap on NBS (closing the gaps between research and implementation) as it supports practitioners in the implementation of blue NBSs, helping the EU reach one of its priority objectives: making a step towards smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth.
Through its Blue NBS Toolbox, including policy briefs and decision-support tools, MaCoBioS has provided substantial outputs to support the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change and the EU Biodiversity Strategy. Its dissemination has reached a wide audience, ensuring continued impact and supporting the EU in meeting its objectives and engagements and reinforce its resilience to face climate change through refined biodiversity and climate change policies.