Multi-hazard and sYstemic framework for enhancing Risk-Informed mAnagement and Decision-making in the E.U.

Project Information

MYRIAD-EU

Grant agreement ID: 101003276

DOI

10.3030/101003276

Project closed

EC signature date 18 May 2021

Start date 1 September 2021

End date 31 December 2025

Funded under

• SOCIETAL CHALLENGES - Climate action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials

Total cost

€ 4 999 802,50

EU contribution

€ 4 999 802,50

Coordinated by

STICHTING VU
Netherlands

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - MYRIAD-EU (Multi-hazard and sYstemic framework for enhancing Risk-Informed mAnagement and Decision-making in the E.U.)

Reporting period: 2023-03-01 to 2024-08-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Natural hazards have caused ~100,000 fatalities and over €100 billion in economic losses in the EU since 2000. The last decade saw huge scientific advances in understanding natural hazard risks, and within the EU there has been a shift in practice from managing hazards to managing risks. Nevertheless, most research and policy still addresses risk from a single-hazard, single-sector, perspective. This presents obstacles for addressing real-world challenges faced by risk managers and other decision-makers. MYRIAD-EU’s vision is to catalyse the paradigm shift required to move towards a multi-risk, multi-sector, systemic approach to risk assessment and management. To achieve this vision, our overall aim is that by the end of MYRIAD-EU policy-makers, decision-makers, and practitioners will be able to develop forward-looking disaster risk management pathways that assess trade-offs and synergies across sectors, hazards, and scales.

To achieve this overall vision and aim, the main objectives of MYRIAD-EU are to:
• Develop a common baseline and understanding on multi-hazard and multi-risk definitions, indicators, functions, methods, tools, and policies;
• Co-develop and co-evaluate a harmonised framework in five multi-hazard, multi-sector, multi-scale Pilots bridging science and practice;
• Build a catalogue of dynamic feedbacks between risk drivers, including systemic vulnerability;
• Develop and test software for generating quantitative and qualitative multi-hazard and multi-risk scenarios;
• Develop forward-looking DRM pathways in five Pilots;
• Synthesise the results; and
• Improve knowledge exchange on multi-hazard risk assessment and management.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

A selection of scientific outcomes of MYRIAD-EU in the second reporting period:
• Activities to ensure longevity of the Diagnosis work, such hosting an international Wikithon to promote Disaster Risk Gateway, and working with UNDRR/ISC to include multi-hazard contexts in the upcoming updated of the Hazard Information Profiles (HIPs)
• Publication of the MYRIAD-EU framework for systemic multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management in scientific journal and subsequent discussions around applications with JRC
• Soft launch of our MYRIAD-EU dashboard
• Successfully holding 2 rounds of Focus Groups in our five MYRIAD-EU Pilots studies, and developing initial DRM pathways for each Pilot
• Publication of joint paper by Pilots discussing the challenges towards multi-hazard risk and proposing approaches for overcoming them
• Methods for quantifying dynamic feedbacks between risk drivers published in scientific journals
• Production of the EU Scale multi-sector multi-hazard exposure-at-risk datasets and models
• Publishing a conceptual approach for designing Dynamic Adaptive Pathways in a Multi-Risk and qualitative and semi-quantitative methods for multi-hazard risk assessment in the tourism sector
• Hosting a successful joint conference with Risk KAN and NatRiskChange
• Hosting a successful policy workshop in collaboration with the CLIMAAX project at the EU Civil Protection Forum 2024 (WP7);
• Developing and maintaining a strong network of EU-sister projects working on multi-hazard risk
• Provide an example of good practice in including Early Career Researchers in EU projects
• Contributing to the EU Climate Risk Assessment

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

Progress towards the expected impacts includes:

“...consensus in better definitions, indicators and functions to characterise multi-hazard risk through enhanced inter-disciplinary collaboration...”
MYRIAD-EU has made significant impacts in helping to develop a consensus in better definitions, indicators and functions to characterise multi-hazard risk. For example, we are currently working together with the UNDRR/ISC Hazard Information Profiles (HIPs) steering committee to inform multi-hazard terminology for the HIPs review. The definitions in our handbook are being used as the basis for the definitions in several other EU projects, like MEDIATE and EO4MultiHazards. The Disaster Risk Gateway is a common platform for sharing knowledge across the community.

“...prioritisation of investments & selection of effective DRM options...” & “...enhanced risk-informed decisions … addressing trade-offs between... options”
DAPP-MR has been designed to yield better-informed decisions to multi-risk challenges through the identification of future-focused DRM pathways that acknowledge the uncertainties surrounding future risks and can flexibly adapt to the conditions that emerge. Across the MYRIAD-EU Pilot regions, good progress has been made in the co-creation of DRM pathways: over 50 stakeholders from diverse sectors have contributed to the development of 14 preliminary DRM pathways.

“...enhanced capacity for identification of vulnerable, threatened areas and infrastructures most at risk from multi hazards in Europe”
We have developed an algorithm for developing multi-hazard event sets based on individual hazard footprints (MYRIAD-HESA) and a dataset at global scale of multi-hazard event sets using 9 single hazard events (MYRIAD-HES). We are collaborating with colleagues at JRC to use MYRIAD-HES in their annual work programme to identify areas that are threatened to multi-hazard events in Europe. Horizon Europe project MIRACA is using MYRIAD-HESA to develop a more high-resolution for Europe, in its assessment of 45 infrastructure risks at the European scale. Our coinciding hazard and exposure sets are being used in discussions with the European Environmental Agency (EEA) as part of the CATDAT database.

“...better informed forward-looking national risk assessments that take into account long-term drivers such as climate change…enhance implementation of existing legislation and streamlining of policies…”
We have developed a collaborative systems analysis approach and DAPP-MR to help practitioners to properly frame complex multi-risk problem contexts to inform risk assessments that explicitly consider long-term drivers like climate change. All Pilots have reported on initial forward-looking pathways and selection of DRM options.

“...enhanced understanding of relationships and interactions of multiple hazards … driven by … changes on different time and spatial scales”
MYRIAD-HESA is being implemented in a collaboration with colleagues of JRC to assess multi-hazard risks at different time and spatial scales. We have also developed VulneraCity, a global database of vulnerability drivers and dynamics. This can be used to better understand the dynamic nature of vulnerability to hazards within urban areas.

“...better knowledge exchange through platforms such as DRMKC, and stakeholder networks on emergent risks and extreme events”
MYRIAD-EU has organised and chaired annual meetings of multi-hazard risk sister projects at the EGU General Assembly. This led to several concrete actions to improve knowledge exchange, including: updates from sister projects in each other’s newsletters; and the co-development of a summer school between MYRIAD-EU, PARATUS, The Hut, and Directed. The 3rd International Conference on Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World, co-organised by MYRIAD-EU, Risk KAN, and NatRiskChange, featured 202 presentations. Our policy workshop discussed integrating multi-hazard assessments and nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation to enhance the implementation of the five EU Disaster Resilience Goals).

Overview of MYRIAD-EU Pilots