Periodic Reporting for period 2 - PROVIDE (Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs)
Reporting period: 2023-03-01 to 2024-12-31
The world is off track to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C, with efforts to stay under 1.5°C at risk. Without immediate emissions reductions, temporary or permanent overshoots may occur, disproportionately impacting vulnerable regions. These overshoots could trigger abrupt, irreversible shifts and exceed adaptation limits.
The PROVIDE project explored a range of overshoot scenarios, assessing climate impacts, high-end risks, and adaptation needs. Its key output, the Climate Risk Dashboard, delivers global-to-local insights on overshoot pathways, complementing existing climate services and promoting broad stakeholder use.
PROVIDE advanced climate risk assessment through five objectives: (1) developing a multi-scenario, multi-sectoral climate framework; (2) analyzing climate system uncertainties and impact reversibility; (3) co-developing an Overshoot Proofing Methodology; (4) prioritizing adaptation needs in four Iconic Regions; and (5) integrating results into an open-access Climate Service Dashboard.
A strong stakeholder engagement strategy ensured usability, with an advisory board guiding research. PROVIDE connected climate service providers, urban planners, and adaptation experts to address overshoot risks and develop adaptation strategies. In its Iconic Regions, it supported decision-making with concrete adaptation measures, now accessible via the Climate Risk Dashboard. The consortium united top climate scientists and practitioners in a continuous co-development process with diverse stakeholders.
The PROVIDE project explored a range of overshoot scenarios, assessing climate impacts, high-end risks, and adaptation needs. Its key output, the Climate Risk Dashboard, delivers global-to-local insights on overshoot pathways, complementing existing climate services and promoting broad stakeholder use.
PROVIDE advanced climate risk assessment through five objectives: (1) developing a multi-scenario, multi-sectoral climate framework; (2) analyzing climate system uncertainties and impact reversibility; (3) co-developing an Overshoot Proofing Methodology; (4) prioritizing adaptation needs in four Iconic Regions; and (5) integrating results into an open-access Climate Service Dashboard.
A strong stakeholder engagement strategy ensured usability, with an advisory board guiding research. PROVIDE connected climate service providers, urban planners, and adaptation experts to address overshoot risks and develop adaptation strategies. In its Iconic Regions, it supported decision-making with concrete adaptation measures, now accessible via the Climate Risk Dashboard. The consortium united top climate scientists and practitioners in a continuous co-development process with diverse stakeholders.
The PROVIDE project had five objectives and seven work packages contributing to meet the objectives. The key milestones and deliverables that were set have been achieved in the duration of the project. Provision and documentation of geographically resolved annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways, emulating CMIP multi-model ensembles, were completed and formed the base for the analysis of the (ir)reversibility of impacts and the adaptation overshoot proofing. The multi-scenario framework and novel emulator methods to produce high-resolution climate impact projections, and integrating data on urban heat stress, biodiversity loss, and macroeconomic effects. The project assessed climate system uncertainties and the reversibility of impacts, publishing high-level research on overshoot risks and adaptation needs. The available data-sets can also be explored in the Climate Risk Dashboard, an innovative new tool developed within the PROVIDE project and its main output.
To tackle adaptation in overshoot scenarios, the PROVIDE project developed an Overshoot Proofing Methodology, applying it in the PROVIDE iconic regions and making it accessible through the Climate Risk Dashboard, reports and policy briefs. In four Iconic Regions, the project engaged stakeholders, developed localized adaptation scenarios, and tested context-based overshoot adaptation strategies. The information is available via the dashboard and extensive reports targeted at each of the regions. The results are also integrated in the PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard, ensuring its long-term usability through extensive dissemination, stakeholder training, and sustainability planning.
The project has continuously and close exchanged with different stakeholder groups to ensure relevance and user-friendliness of the results. Key stakeholder groups included the Stakeholder Advisory Board, regional stakeholder groups in the iconic regions, as well as EU policy makers and civil society organizations. Stakeholder interactions included targeted webinars and workshops, written updates e.g. through the newsletter and emails and social media and outreach events which were often organized in collaboration with key stakeholders. All interactions have been integrated in the final dissemination and exploitation plan.
To tackle adaptation in overshoot scenarios, the PROVIDE project developed an Overshoot Proofing Methodology, applying it in the PROVIDE iconic regions and making it accessible through the Climate Risk Dashboard, reports and policy briefs. In four Iconic Regions, the project engaged stakeholders, developed localized adaptation scenarios, and tested context-based overshoot adaptation strategies. The information is available via the dashboard and extensive reports targeted at each of the regions. The results are also integrated in the PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard, ensuring its long-term usability through extensive dissemination, stakeholder training, and sustainability planning.
The project has continuously and close exchanged with different stakeholder groups to ensure relevance and user-friendliness of the results. Key stakeholder groups included the Stakeholder Advisory Board, regional stakeholder groups in the iconic regions, as well as EU policy makers and civil society organizations. Stakeholder interactions included targeted webinars and workshops, written updates e.g. through the newsletter and emails and social media and outreach events which were often organized in collaboration with key stakeholders. All interactions have been integrated in the final dissemination and exploitation plan.
The PROVIDE project supported major advancements in the emerging field of overshoot science as reflected in a number publications in high-ranking journals. The scientific insights achieve will provide a key input into the forthcoming round of Assessment Reports by the IPCC.
A major achievement of the project is the interdisciplinary integration of aspect of overshoot from emission pathways, technology implications to impacts and on the ground adaptation implications. The project pioneered an overshoot proofing tool for adaptation planning that has been successfully applied in several case studies.
Reduced vulnerability to climate change, as an impact of the project, is supported through assessment of scenarios of future socio-economic vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities. Progress on this has been made through the identification of local adaptation challenges, thereby improving resilience in avoiding maladaptation.
The multi-scenario approach in PROVIDE with development of a broad variety of pathways of overshooting temperature targets and deployment of Carbon Dioxide Removal, strengthens scientific knowledge on climate and the decrease of knowledge gaps on overshoot impacts.
Collection of knowledge on system thresholds and the communication of related risks to a broad range of stakeholders including in the context of climate overshoot, will continue to leads to better informed climate services and decision-making support over the next five years and beyond. A key pillar for the lasting impacts has been the targeted stakeholder engagement both with the Stakeholder Advisory Board as well as in the Iconic Regions that have integrated and mainstreamed PROVIDE outputs into their work and will continue to use its insights as well as utilise the PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard.
The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard will be further developed at the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) where it represents a cornerstone of the institute’s tool development strategy going forward.
As navigating overshoot will become more and more important in the context of climate policy, insights from PROVIDE are also expected to inform the ongoing preparation of the next round of national determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement and national adaptation planning strategies.
A major achievement of the project is the interdisciplinary integration of aspect of overshoot from emission pathways, technology implications to impacts and on the ground adaptation implications. The project pioneered an overshoot proofing tool for adaptation planning that has been successfully applied in several case studies.
Reduced vulnerability to climate change, as an impact of the project, is supported through assessment of scenarios of future socio-economic vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities. Progress on this has been made through the identification of local adaptation challenges, thereby improving resilience in avoiding maladaptation.
The multi-scenario approach in PROVIDE with development of a broad variety of pathways of overshooting temperature targets and deployment of Carbon Dioxide Removal, strengthens scientific knowledge on climate and the decrease of knowledge gaps on overshoot impacts.
Collection of knowledge on system thresholds and the communication of related risks to a broad range of stakeholders including in the context of climate overshoot, will continue to leads to better informed climate services and decision-making support over the next five years and beyond. A key pillar for the lasting impacts has been the targeted stakeholder engagement both with the Stakeholder Advisory Board as well as in the Iconic Regions that have integrated and mainstreamed PROVIDE outputs into their work and will continue to use its insights as well as utilise the PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard.
The PROVIDE Climate Risk Dashboard will be further developed at the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) where it represents a cornerstone of the institute’s tool development strategy going forward.
As navigating overshoot will become more and more important in the context of climate policy, insights from PROVIDE are also expected to inform the ongoing preparation of the next round of national determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement and national adaptation planning strategies.