Expanding Integrated Assessment Modelling: Comprehensive and Comprehensible Science for Sustainable, Co-Created Climate Action

Informazioni relative al progetto

IAM COMPACT

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: 101056306

DOI

10.3030/101056306

Progetto chiuso

Data della firma CE 19 Luglio 2022

Data di avvio 1 Settembre 2022

Data di completamento 31 Agosto 2025

Finanziato da

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Costo totale

€ 4 461 325,75

Contributo UE

€ 4 461 323,00

Coordinato da

ETHNICON METSOVION POLYTECHNION
Greece

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - IAM COMPACT (Expanding Integrated Assessment Modelling: Comprehensive and Comprehensible Science for Sustainable, Co-Created Climate Action)

Periodo di rendicontazione: 2024-03-01 al 2025-08-31

Sintesi del contesto e degli obiettivi generali del progetto

-Efforts not on track to meeting the Paris goals; international cooperation still limited
-Modellers insufficiently including non-scientists, despite need for wide societal support
-LMICs not “owning” their NDC commitments (modelling often outsourced)
-Modelling predominantly on supply side, despite potential in demand and behaviour
-IAMs mostly designed for long-term horizons and ill-equipped for deep uncertainties or structural changes
-Climate action typically assessed outside the sustainability spectrum
-Interdisciplinary transitions research agenda needed for feasibility & desirability
-Mitigation pathways often assessed against unrealistic baselines

Objectives included:
O1|Supporting the assessment of global climate progress, needs, and feasibility, and the preparation of national policies for the post-2030 period, toward mid-century climate neutrality
O2|Placing climate action in a holistic sustainable development framework
O3|Enhancing the robustness of scientific outputs and incorporating social, political, behaviour, and innovation insights in models
O4|Co-creating policy-relevant modelling via an international policy response mechanism
O5|Establishing an integration process that co-produces science and policy prescriptions by adding layers of tools, models, methods, and bodies of knowledge
O6|Opening the ‘black box’ of scientific inputs, processes and outputs
O7|Engaging in the deep/extreme uncertainty space
O8|Boosting international cooperation, partnership, and capacity

Lavoro eseguito dall’inizio del progetto fino alla fine del periodo coperto dalla relazione e principali risultati finora ottenuti

(a) Listening
Policy Response Mechanism (PRM) established
Database of 5,759 stakeholders (> 500 academia, 500 business, 500 industry, 500 civil society, 250 modellers, 200 social scientists, 2000 policymakers, 100 LMICs)
24 Policy Steering Groups (62 policymakers) to co-define questions
13 Core Working Groups (192 stakeholders) to co-design scenarios
14 policy briefs

(b) Exchanging
Open science & model linking protocols, DMP (Argos), Zenodo community
IAM PARIS: 62 models, 23 documentation videos, 2 tools (standardised outputs, vetting), 10 workspaces

(c) Modelling
Policy catalogue, model coordination, data/policy harmonisation, broad scenario protocols
Global & regional mitigation analyses (EU, India, China, USA), sectoral & sub-national deep dives in Europe

(d) Expanding
Open database & model inter-comparison on COVID-19 recovery packages
Microsimulation & macroeconomic modelling of distributional impacts
IAMs stress-tested for extremes, expert interviews
Representation of behaviour change & social innovation; co-created narratives
Assessment framework for inter-comparisons across dimensions (SDGs, social equity, innovation)

(e) Explaining
Several policy events, 23 videos, 16 infographics, 20 media articles, 32 newsletters/press releases, 61 papers, 63 conferences, 36 open datasets, 1 Special Issue, 1 editorial, 14 policy briefs, 1 technical brief, submission of scenarios & policy brief to EU SABCC
Mapping of global drivers, barriers, policies for sectoral decarbonisation
Capacity development (workshops, courses, material) in Ethiopia, Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Kenya

Progressi oltre lo stato dell’arte e potenziale impatto previsto (incluso l’impatto socioeconomico e le implicazioni sociali più ampie del progetto fino ad ora)

O1:
-2 reports on global mitigation & regional (EU, India, China, US) long-term targets
-2 reports on EU sectoral decarbonisation (steel, raw materials, capacity & flexibility requirements, small-scale PV uptake) & multi-model deep dive into Greece’s new NECP
-2 reports on spatially explicit analysis in Europe (health & equality, security, resilience, flexibility, costs)
-1 paper, 2 conferences, 1 brief on tackling the energy crisis in the EU
-1 paper, 1 conference on the climate assessment workflow
-1 inter-comparison paper on global and regional mitigation (& feasibility)
-1 inter-comparison paper, 2 conferences on EU net zero
-1 viewpoint on scenario database challenges
-1 perspective on IPCC scenario database curation
-1 review of coal transitions
-1 paper on transformative changes of NDCs & LTTs
-1 paper on effects of asymmetric mitigation policies on energy trade from a North American viewpoint
-1 commentary on principles for robust CDR policy in the G7
-1 high-profile paper on costs of capital to finance the energy transition in LMICs
-1 commentary on the attainability of 1.5°C
-1 special issue on constructing futures through modelling
-1 paper on energy & socioeconomic transformation in a decade of IPCC scenarios
-1 essay on the role of AI in climate change scientific assessments
-6 conferences
-3 policy briefs

O2:
-Global database & inter-comparison of green recovery
-1 model integration tool for distributional analysis, piloted for the EU ETD
-2 reports, 1 book chapter on distributional impacts of climate policy in Greece
-1 comment on short-term health co-benefits of climate policy
-1 inter-comparison paper on SDG impacts of EU decarbonisation
-1 paper on carbon pricing and system reliability toward universal electricity access in Africa
-1 paper on environmental & market implications of steel decarbonisation for the EU
-12 conferences

O3:
-2 harmonisation processes, 1 relevant database for modelling exercises
-2 analyses of underrepresented disruptive innovations/technologies (cleantech diffusion, CDR, interest rates, firms’ credit/financial risk, financing cost, empirical analysis informing the choice of slack in MGA)
-1 report on global drivers, barriers, policies considering political, social, economic, structural, technological, individual factors across sectors
-1 data structure definition for validation of model outputs
-1 set of diagnostic scenarios & indicators
-1 paper on cleantech upscale uncertainty
-1 opinion piece on principles for assessing new tech opportunities
-1 viewpoint on CDR controversies
-1 analysis mitigation scenario variations
-1 comment on science-based targets and inequitable/unambitious efforts
-1 viewpoint on climate futures using deep learning
-7 conferences

O4:
-1 policy brief on our PRM
-1 co-created modelling paper for Greece
-1 timely viewpoint on Loss & Damage
-1 paper, 1 conference on co-created transformative policy mixes in 5 countries
-1 special issue on stakeholder-driven modelling
-1 paper on a framework for participatory modelling

O5:
-1 new tool for validity/vetting checks of model data
-1 analysis on model typologies & characterisation
-1 literature review of policy types from a modelling angle
-1 paper, 1 tool to process GCAM outputs in the IAMC template
-1 conference

O6:
-IAM PARIS upgrade & operation
-1 analysis of state-of-art open science practices
-32 newsletters/press releases
-16 synergy events
-21 media articles
-61 papers, 63 conferences

O7:
-1 literature review, expert interviews, assessment of the impact of tech limitations on EU decarbonisation; IAM framework for extremes
-1 paper on low-carbon innovations
-1 perspective on resilience risks of technologies
-1 paper on mitigation pathways course correction
-1 paper on the optimal speed of cleantech diffusion

O8:
-1 training & teaching kit for modelling.
-1 comment on climate education
-1 paper on training course for MUSE

IAM COMPACT project website homepage (screenshot)