Framework for defining climate mitigation pathways based on understanding and integrated assessment of climate impacts, adaptation strategies and societal transformation

Project Information

KNOWING

Grant agreement ID: 101056841

DOI

10.3030/101056841

Project closed

EC signature date 10 May 2022

Start date 1 June 2022

End date 31 May 2026

Funded under

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Total cost

€ 6 204 910,00

EU contribution

€ 6 204 906,50

Coordinated by

AIT AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY GMBH
Austria

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - KNOWING (Framework for defining climate mitigation pathways based on understanding and integrated assessment of climate impacts, adaptation strategies and societal transformation)

Reporting period: 2023-12-01 to 2025-05-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The climate system provides the conditions for all living beings to thrive. Human actions during the last centuries though are increasingly disrupting the delicate balance of the climate system, threatening the survival of both humans and countless species. Consequently, also our local climate conditions are increasingly modified, resulting in ever more extreme weather events: droughts and related food scarcity, heat and related health risks, extreme precipitation and flooding.
Knowing the consequences of our actions for the climate system, we can define, explore, and adopt measures to reduce or even avoid the impacts of these actions. A holistic perspective is however needed to understand what adaptation measures we can “afford” without further harming the climate, as mitigation and adaptation measures do not take place in isolation. Rather, they are interconnected in various ways which may lead to new risks we need to manage without jeopardising our climate mitigation goals. KNOWING therefore aims to explore such “response risks” and how to avoid them, and to communicate this knowledge in a comprehensive and understandable way to all groups (policymakers, stakeholders, and civil society) in order to provide clear guidelines for creating a desirable future and selecting effective combinations of measures for four different types of regions: urban regions, coastal regions, river regions, and agroforestry regions. To achieve this, a systemic view is taken, modelling all relevant causal links and resulting feedback to analyse and optimise mitigation and adaptation pathways. This is considered as the main methodological novelty in KNOWING.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The KNOWING approach aims to address two central challenges: (1) the urgent need for an integrated approach for an enhanced understanding of the interaction, complementarity and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation measures, and (2) the need to provide this understanding and knowledge to a broad audience to support local authorities in EU partner countries in developing regional programmes.
At this stage of the project, the efforts to disclose and assess unanticipated or underestimated response risks have produced a comprehensive review of relevant literature and expert opinions on important interdependencies between measures from a wide range of different sectors, e.g. energy, transport, land use, food and natural goods production, housing and construction. The collected knowledge has been used to develop a qualitative model of this system of mutual interrelations, disclosing potential risks but also co-benefits of measures. Measures from different sectors can now be better explored to understand what needs to be done to increase their effectiveness and how to reduce undesired effects, even if these are not immediately recognisable. An example of the sometimes hidden consequences has been visualised in the form of an interactive infographic on the project website (https://knowing-climate.eu/tools-and-services/infographics/) and the “Shape Your Future” App. The website also provides more details on the core principles guiding the project as well as a blog with interesting insights and an events calendar to stay informed and learn about opportunities to engage.
The systemic qualitative model is the core element of the modelling framework, which is currently being quantified by connecting this model to existing domain models from the different sectors. It will allow the identification and planning of measures to specify Climate Mitigation Pathways for four Demonstrator Regions in the upcoming period: Tallinn, Estonia (focussing on the challenges related to heat and health), Granollers, Spain (with an emphasis on river floodings and infrastructure), South-Westphalia, Germany (dealing with challenges in the area of agroforestry), and Naples, Italy (putting the focus on coastal floodings and infrastructure). During the last months, local communities of stakeholders in these Demonstrator Regions have been actively involved in co-creation processes, including participatory workshops and interviews, to develop the Pathways together with the modelling team. Preliminary regional system dynamics diagrams, based on the extensive simulations with the specific domain models (e.g. energy, transport, urban climate) and context-specific response risk analyses have been developed, forming the basis for the tailored pathways.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

KNOWING develops three crucial components for enabling and accelerating effective climate action: (1) profound and comprehensive knowledge about quantifiable cross-sectoral interactions, complementarity and trade-offs of adaptation and mitigation measures (“knowing what”), (2) general awareness of this knowledge to increase the acceptance and support of measures and inspire active engagement and societal transformation (“knowing why”), and (3) tools and guidelines to apply this knowledge and accelerate the implementation of effective adaptation and mitigation plans (“knowing how”). This will be achieved by the key results of the project.
The collected knowledge will be made accessible in an Impact Interaction Knowledge Base providing easily comprehensible and searchable insights into the scientific findings of the project. Climate Empowerment Services designed for different groups are applied to raise awareness, understanding and the confidence to become an active part in the transition. Finally, the Impact Interaction Model Framework and the developed Climate Mitigation Pathways, together with the extensive results of the domain models, will constitute the necessary tools and guidance for people to take action and realise the transition to a liveable and climate-neutral future in urban, coastal, river and agricultural regions.
To ensure the results of the project are successfully taken up by the envisioned target groups, it is necessary to involve not only these groups, but also to build strategic high-level connections and alliances to adapt and prepare the conditions that are needed by these groups to implement measures which have been identified as most effective but may require supportive regulatory frameworks or standardisation.

KNOWING systemic perspective