Permafrost thaw and the changing arctic coast: science for socio-economic adaptation

Project Information

Nunataryuk

Grant agreement ID: 773421

DOI

10.3030/773421

Project closed

EC signature date 6 October 2017

Start date 1 November 2017

End date 31 October 2023

Funded under

• SOCIETAL CHALLENGES - Climate action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials

Total cost

€ 11 467 317,50

EU contribution

€ 11 467 317,50

Coordinated by

ALFRED-WEGENER-INSTITUT HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR POLAR- UND MEERESFORSCHUNG
Germany

Periodic Reporting for period 4 - Nunataryuk (Permafrost thaw and the changing arctic coast: science for socio-economic adaptation)

Reporting period: 2022-05-01 to 2023-10-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Arctic permafrost coasts make up 34% of the world's coasts and represent a key interface for human-environmental interactions. These coasts provide essential ecosystem services, exhibit high biodiversity and productivity, and support indigenous lifestyles. At the same time, this coastal zone is a dynamic and vulnerable zone of expanding infrastructure investment and growing health concerns. Permafrost thaw in combination with increasing sea level and changing sea-ice cover expose the Arctic coastal and nearshore areas to rapid changes. These changes are likely to trigger coastal landscape instability and increased hazard exposure, as well as dramatic consequences for the Earth’s climate and the Arctic nearshore ecosystem.

On the global level, the release of organic carbon previously frozen in permafrost and its transformation into greenhouse gases may push the global climate warming above the 1.5 °C targeted in the COP21 Paris Agreement. Yet, these processes are still not accounted for in global climate and Earth System Models informing the IPCC process.
On the local level, Arctic residents are directly impacted by rapidly changing conditions at the coast. Yet, all of these issues have so far been considered in isolation and have not been addressed in an integrated research framework.

The pressing challenge is therefore to quantify and project organic matter, sediment and contaminant fluxes from thawing coastal and subsea permafrost and to accurately assess the implications of permafrost thaw for the indigenous populations, the local environment as well as the global climate.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

Nunataryuk has generated several unique results ranging from data and model outputs to community perspectives and adaptation strategies.

For example, for the first time we now know how many people live in settlements built on permafrost. We have more precise predictions on when we can expect these settlements to be permafrost free and understanding on the stability of coastal infrastructure in a changing climate with thawing permafrost. We have a good idea of the resources and tools the affected communities currently possess and more clear apprehension on what type of adaptation measures are needed.

Further, we have been able to quantify more precisely the lateral fluxes from permafrost, the methane release fluxes from sub-sea permafrost and the release of Anthrax from permafrost soil. We have, for the first time, been able to integrate coastal erosion and sub-sea components to the Earth System Models providing thus a critically needed information on how the global climate might evolve with permafrost thaw counted in.

All results have been published in open-access peer-reviewed publications that are available in our Nunataryuk community in the Zenodo repository at https://zenodo.org/

Furthermore, all project results have been compiled into the first ever Arctic Permafrost Atlas that is a key outcome of the Nunataryuk project. Edited by GRID-Arendal together with the Nunataryuk consortium, it presents state-of-the-art knowledge about permafrost and the impacts of permafrost thaw on human communities in the Arctic in a highly visual form.
The atlas provides a unique collection of knowledge for the affected communities, institutes all over the world, for the global policy community as well as the general public, providing science-based information in easily understandable jargon free format.
The Atlas is freely available online at https://nunataryuk.org/news/atlas

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

On the global level, Nunataryuk focused on filling important gaps by quantifying the carbon contribution to the global climate from sub-sea permafrost thaw and from lateral transfer of organic matter from land to sea, which are currently not accounted for in Earth System Models. The result is a comprehensive assessment of the contribution of permafrost to the warming of the Earth and of its socio-economic consequences.

On the local level, Nunataryuk has examined the health consequences of permafrost thaw by quantifying fluxes of contaminants and epidemiological impacts on humans. The One Health approach, a holistic framework that considers the connections between the environment, plant, animal and human health, has been used for evaluating health risks for wild-life and humans living in the three project geographical focal areas. The project further used a risk evaluation methodology developed together with Arctic coastal communities to provide information on infrastructure vulnerability and failure and associated risks to health and the local economy. This integrated approach is unique and is one of the main legacies of the project.

Nunataryuk applied its novel trans-disciplinary research chain from co-design to the on-the- ground field research and community engagement to create policy relevant indicators. It presented an actionable risk framework to community decision-makers, taking this state-of-the-art methodology to the next level of integration between physical science and socio-economic understanding. This facilitates tangible action to implement the UN SDG13 combating climate change and its impacts and puts forward permafrost thaw cost estimates that are directly relevant for the implementation of the Paris Agreement.

Herschel Island / Qikiqtaruk, Yukon Coast.

Thematic Nunataryuk collage.

Ilulissat, Greenland.

Qiqiktaruk, Yukon Coast.