Propagation of atmospheric ROssby waves - connection to prEdictability of Climate exTremes

Información del proyecto

PROTECT

Identificador del acuerdo de subvención: 797961

DOI

10.3030/797961

Proyecto finalizado el 1 Septiembre 2020

Fecha de la firma de la CE 27 Febrero 2018

Fecha de inicio 5 Noviembre 2018

Fecha de finalización 4 Noviembre 2020

Financiado con arreglo a

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Coste total

€ 158 121,60

Aportación de la UE

€ 158 121,60

Coordinado por

BARCELONA SUPERCOMPUTING CENTER CENTRO NACIONAL DE SUPERCOMPUTACION
Spain

Objetivo

Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts and flooding, have a devastating impact on humanity, causing increased mortality and suffering, as well as economic losses. Skillful predictions of such events, with sufficient lead-time for adaptation procedures can provide huge benefits to humankind. Recent extreme events, including the severe European and Russian heatwaves, have been found to be associated with particular atmospheric wave dynamics, specifically the propagation of Rossby waves along atmospheric waveguides. Our proposed research will explore the seasonal predictability of extreme events through a lens of atmospheric waveguides and Rossby wave propagation. We will answer four key research questions:
I. What is the predictability of dominant modes of variability in waveguide geometry?
II. How does the frequency of extreme events as a function of location relate to waveguide geometry in both observations and forecast systems?
III. How do the results from I and II combine to provide predictability on the likelihood of extreme events?
IV. How does model resolution impact Rossby wave propagation and the relationship to extreme events?
Both re-analysis (observational) data, and seasonal forecast model data will be used. We will calculate the Rossby refractive index and analyze its spatial and temporal variability, quantifying the predictability in waveguide geometry. Extreme events (heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts and blocking events) will be identified in the datasets, with lag-lead regression and composites revealing the connections to the waveguide geometry. We will create empirical models to predict the frequency of extreme events, evaluate their reliability, and compare to these to existing dynamical forecasts. Our goal is to harness the increased understanding of climate extremes that atmospheric dynamics can bring, to help improve the predictability of extreme events, reducing their human and societal impacts.

Ámbito científico (EuroSciVoc)

• ciencias sociales › sociología › demografía › mortalidad
• ingeniería y tecnología › ingeniería de materiales › compuestos
• ciencias naturales › matemáticas › matemáticas puras › geometría
• ciencias naturales › ciencias de la tierra y ciencias ambientales conexas › ciencias de la atmósfera › climatología › cambios climáticos

Palabras clave

• Atmospheric Rossby waves
• Rossby refractive index
• seasonal predictability
• climate extreme events
• climate model data
• re-analysis data

Programa(s)

• H2020-EU.1.3. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions PROGRAMA PRINCIPAL
  
• H2020-EU.1.3.2. - Nurturing excellence by means of cross-border and cross-sector mobility
  

Tema(s)

• MSCA-IF-2017 - Individual Fellowships
  

Régimen de financiación

MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)

Convocatoria de propuestas

H2020-MSCA-IF-2017

Coordinador

BARCELONA SUPERCOMPUTING CENTER CENTRO NACIONAL DE SUPERCOMPUTACION

• Aportación neta de la UEn: € 158 121,60
• Dirección: CALLE JORDI GIRONA 31 ; 08034 Barcelona ; España
• Región: Este › Cataluña › Barcelona
• Tipo de actividad: Research Organisations
• Coste total: € 158 121,60