From the beginning of the project to the end of the reporting period, significant efforts have been directed towards comprehensive dataset collection and analysis, particularly focused on the 2020 US Presidential election and a comparative dataset across multiple democracies.
In the initial phase, the project concentrated on gathering extensive and unique data around the 2020 US Presidential election. This included detailed tracking of American voters' preferences and priorities, systematic recording and analysis of policy statements and election pledges made by the Presidential candidates (Joe Biden and Donald Trump), and a comprehensive analysis of mass media communication through leading outlets such as CNN and Fox News. This resulted in a robust dataset comprising nearly 4,000 tweets from the candidates, more than 9,600 news articles, and daily survey responses from approximately 24,000 voters, which provided a high-resolution view of issue salience and public opinion during the critical two months leading up to the election. Analysis of this dataset produced key insights demonstrating that despite significant partisan polarization, there was considerable agreement among voters, candidates, and media regarding the most pressing election issues. This research has been submitted for publication in the Journal of Politics, demonstrating its academic significance and potential influence.
Building upon these insights, the second phase of the project adopted a comparative approach, collecting data from elections in several established democracies, including Australia, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This comparative dataset, covering 90 elections over several decades and consisting of more than 120,000 voter-party dyads, allowed rigorous testing of hypotheses related to election pledges, policy congruence, and political mobilization. Results from this comparative analysis underscored the pivotal role of political mobilization—specifically voter turnout and union membership—in reducing inequalities in policy congruence between different socioeconomic groups. Findings highlighted that increased political mobilization among lower socioeconomic status groups significantly improves alignment between voter preferences and party pledges, thereby enhancing electoral representation.
Exploitation and dissemination of these findings have been robust, with one paper published and others accepted in top academic journals such as the European Journal of Political Research and the Journal of European Public Policy. This dissemination strategy ensures that the project's results inform both scholarly debate and practical political strategy aimed at enhancing democratic accountability and representation.
