Pledges in democracy

Project Information

PLEDGEDEM

Grant agreement ID: 817855

DOI

10.3030/817855

Project closed

EC signature date 5 April 2019

Start date 1 August 2019

End date 31 January 2025

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 1 999 255,00

EU contribution

€ 1 999 255,00

Coordinated by

AARHUS UNIVERSITET
Denmark

Periodic Reporting for period 4 - PLEDGEDEM (Pledges in democracy)

Reporting period: 2024-02-01 to 2025-01-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Election pledges are fundamental promises political parties and candidates make during campaigns to clearly communicate their intended policies to voters. Effective electoral representation means these pledges align closely with the priorities and preferences of diverse voter groups.

The project has shed significant light on the complex relationship between election pledges, voter awareness, and electoral representation. Data from the 2020 US Presidential election revealed surprising patterns of agreement between voters, candidates, and the media about which issues were most critical. Despite high partisan polarization, voters and candidates often converged on the same topics, indicating that election pledges can effectively guide public discourse when there is common recognition of important societal issues.

The research emphasizes that when election pledges reflect broad voter preferences, democratic accountability and voter engagement improve. However, this alignment does not always occur evenly. Socioeconomic factors significantly influence how well voters feel represented by election pledges. Lower socioeconomic status (SES) voters frequently experience less policy alignment (or policy congruence) with their preferred parties compared to higher SES voters, leading to what scholars call "policy congruence inequality."

One key finding, supported by comparative studies across multiple democracies including the US, Germany, and Denmark, highlights that political mobilization—through voter turnout and union membership—significantly reduces this inequality. When disadvantaged voter groups participate actively, political parties are compelled to address their preferences more closely, ensuring election pledges resonate with a broader cross-section of the electorate.

In essence, while election pledges can enhance voter awareness and democratic accountability, their effectiveness depends greatly on political mobilization and active participation by all voter groups. Strengthening electoral representation thus requires ongoing efforts to boost voter turnout and civic engagement among traditionally underrepresented communities.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

From the beginning of the project to the end of the reporting period, significant efforts have been directed towards comprehensive dataset collection and analysis, particularly focused on the 2020 US Presidential election and a comparative dataset across multiple democracies.

In the initial phase, the project concentrated on gathering extensive and unique data around the 2020 US Presidential election. This included detailed tracking of American voters' preferences and priorities, systematic recording and analysis of policy statements and election pledges made by the Presidential candidates (Joe Biden and Donald Trump), and a comprehensive analysis of mass media communication through leading outlets such as CNN and Fox News. This resulted in a robust dataset comprising nearly 4,000 tweets from the candidates, more than 9,600 news articles, and daily survey responses from approximately 24,000 voters, which provided a high-resolution view of issue salience and public opinion during the critical two months leading up to the election. Analysis of this dataset produced key insights demonstrating that despite significant partisan polarization, there was considerable agreement among voters, candidates, and media regarding the most pressing election issues. This research has been submitted for publication in the Journal of Politics, demonstrating its academic significance and potential influence.

Building upon these insights, the second phase of the project adopted a comparative approach, collecting data from elections in several established democracies, including Australia, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This comparative dataset, covering 90 elections over several decades and consisting of more than 120,000 voter-party dyads, allowed rigorous testing of hypotheses related to election pledges, policy congruence, and political mobilization. Results from this comparative analysis underscored the pivotal role of political mobilization—specifically voter turnout and union membership—in reducing inequalities in policy congruence between different socioeconomic groups. Findings highlighted that increased political mobilization among lower socioeconomic status groups significantly improves alignment between voter preferences and party pledges, thereby enhancing electoral representation.

Exploitation and dissemination of these findings have been robust, with one paper published and others accepted in top academic journals such as the European Journal of Political Research and the Journal of European Public Policy. This dissemination strategy ensures that the project's results inform both scholarly debate and practical political strategy aimed at enhancing democratic accountability and representation.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

The project's results and activities represent significant advancements beyond the current state-of-the-art. Firstly, the project's unique integration of extensive daily survey data with candidate communication and mass media coverage from the US 2020 election offers unprecedented granularity in understanding real-time dynamics of political communication and voter response. Secondly, the comparative component of the project greatly extends existing knowledge by providing robust empirical evidence across multiple countries and decades, allowing for more generalizable and nuanced insights into electoral representation and policy congruence. Lastly, by explicitly linking political mobilization with policy alignment and democratic representation, this work not only fills critical gaps in current research but also offers practical guidance on enhancing democratic practices and policy accountability.

Exploitation and dissemination of these findings have been robust, with one paper published and others accepted in top academic journals such as the European Journal of Political Research and the Journal of European Public Policy. This dissemination strategy ensures that the project's results inform both scholarly debate and practical political strategy aimed at enhancing democratic accountability and representation.

Articles published as part of the project