Periodic Reporting for period 4 - SOS.aquaterra (Respecting safe operating spaces: opportunities to meet future food demand with sustainable use of water and land resources)
Reporting period: 2023-12-01 to 2025-02-28
Although the human population has quadrupled over the past century, per capita food availability is now higher than ever globally—achieved at considerable environmental expense. The methods by which we currently produce and consume food largely depend on practices that are environmentally unsustainable and are a primary cause of significant transgressions of planetary boundaries. These boundaries define limits across nine interacting Earth system processes that must be respected to prevent our planet from being pushed outside a safe operating space for humanity. Projected population growth and climate change will further exacerbate the challenge of feeding the planet sustainably.
SOS.aquaterra addresses this challenge by identifying socio-economically feasible measures to meet future food demand while respecting the key planetary boundaries for food production: water, land, nutrients, and biosphere integrity. We are developing a novel integrated modelling framework and data analysis methods that leverage the rapidly expanding open global spatiotemporal datasets along with outputs from global agronomical and hydrological models.
The overall objectives of the project are:
1. To develop a comprehensive and integrated model to estimate local thresholds for water-land-nutrient-biosphere integrity planetary boundaries and to quantify the safe operating space under future conditions.
2. To quantitatively assess the combined potential of innovative and conventional food opportunities within the safe operating space defined by the planetary boundaries.
3. To evaluate the feasibility of future food opportunities by using historical information on food solutions.
Rather than assessing planetary boundaries (PBs) individually, our approach acknowledges the interactions, feedbacks, and potential trade-offs between the PB processes. A second novel aspect of the SOS.aquaterra project is its integrated food system model, which aims to provide a systemic understanding of the entire global food system, including trade. With our integrated modelling system, we will estimate, for the first time, the combined potential of conventional measures (diet change, food loss reduction, yield gap closure, and trade) and future innovations (such as vertical farming and alternative protein sources) to sustainably meet future food demand at the sub-national level.
SOS.aquaterra addresses this challenge by identifying socio-economically feasible measures to meet future food demand while respecting the key planetary boundaries for food production: water, land, nutrients, and biosphere integrity. We are developing a novel integrated modelling framework and data analysis methods that leverage the rapidly expanding open global spatiotemporal datasets along with outputs from global agronomical and hydrological models.
The overall objectives of the project are:
1. To develop a comprehensive and integrated model to estimate local thresholds for water-land-nutrient-biosphere integrity planetary boundaries and to quantify the safe operating space under future conditions.
2. To quantitatively assess the combined potential of innovative and conventional food opportunities within the safe operating space defined by the planetary boundaries.
3. To evaluate the feasibility of future food opportunities by using historical information on food solutions.
Rather than assessing planetary boundaries (PBs) individually, our approach acknowledges the interactions, feedbacks, and potential trade-offs between the PB processes. A second novel aspect of the SOS.aquaterra project is its integrated food system model, which aims to provide a systemic understanding of the entire global food system, including trade. With our integrated modelling system, we will estimate, for the first time, the combined potential of conventional measures (diet change, food loss reduction, yield gap closure, and trade) and future innovations (such as vertical farming and alternative protein sources) to sustainably meet future food demand at the sub-national level.
Throughout the project, we focused on innovative methodologies and expanding knowledge in key areas. Notable achievements include:
Increased understanding of human impact on global water resources: Our research reveals how human activities violate environmental flow standards, contributing to the global water crisis (https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022(opens in new window)). We developed a theoretical framework for the water planetary boundary (https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024957(opens in new window)) and led efforts to revise the freshwater planetary boundary, informing the most recent update (https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00208-7(opens in new window) https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458(opens in new window)).
Safe climatic space for food production: High emission scenarios could compromise food crop and livestock production beyond safe climatic conditions (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.017(opens in new window)). Examining impacts on food crop diversity is crucial for resilience, especially in tropical regions (https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01135-w(opens in new window)).
Solutions for sustainable use of natural resources: We identified strategies for efficient resource use, exploring carbon sequestration opportunities in livestock production (https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2405758121(opens in new window)) and changes in global grasslands' carrying capacity (https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16174(opens in new window)). Insights into circular food systems (https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00589-6(opens in new window)) and incorporating novel foods offer sustainability pathways (https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00489-9(opens in new window)).
Integrated food system modelling: Our dynamic models simulate food system interactions to enhance understanding of global security under various scenarios. Aalto OptoFood facilitates evaluation of dietary transitions and resource use, demonstrating water savings from reduced animal protein consumption (https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1258536/v1(opens in new window)).
Socio-economics integrated with earth systems: We explored socio-economic pathways for sustainable food systems (https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4304589/v1(opens in new window)) and assessed factors influencing food loss (https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-023-00426-4(opens in new window)) and crop yield variability using the XGBoost algorithm (https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002420(opens in new window)).
Global socio-economic datasets: We published novel global subnational datasets, including GDP (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-04487-x(opens in new window)) GNI, income inequality (https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5548291/v1(opens in new window)) and gridded Human net-migration (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01689-4(opens in new window)).
The project has resulted in 68 articles (64 peer-reviewed, 4 preprints), with 20 in top journals (Nature, Science, PNAS families) and over 15 in leading journals of our field. Two PhD researchers completed their doctorates through the project. Over 1250 media mentions reached an estimated audience of 35 million people.
Increased understanding of human impact on global water resources: Our research reveals how human activities violate environmental flow standards, contributing to the global water crisis (https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022(opens in new window)). We developed a theoretical framework for the water planetary boundary (https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024957(opens in new window)) and led efforts to revise the freshwater planetary boundary, informing the most recent update (https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00208-7(opens in new window) https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458(opens in new window)).
Safe climatic space for food production: High emission scenarios could compromise food crop and livestock production beyond safe climatic conditions (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.017(opens in new window)). Examining impacts on food crop diversity is crucial for resilience, especially in tropical regions (https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01135-w(opens in new window)).
Solutions for sustainable use of natural resources: We identified strategies for efficient resource use, exploring carbon sequestration opportunities in livestock production (https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2405758121(opens in new window)) and changes in global grasslands' carrying capacity (https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16174(opens in new window)). Insights into circular food systems (https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00589-6(opens in new window)) and incorporating novel foods offer sustainability pathways (https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00489-9(opens in new window)).
Integrated food system modelling: Our dynamic models simulate food system interactions to enhance understanding of global security under various scenarios. Aalto OptoFood facilitates evaluation of dietary transitions and resource use, demonstrating water savings from reduced animal protein consumption (https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1258536/v1(opens in new window)).
Socio-economics integrated with earth systems: We explored socio-economic pathways for sustainable food systems (https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4304589/v1(opens in new window)) and assessed factors influencing food loss (https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-023-00426-4(opens in new window)) and crop yield variability using the XGBoost algorithm (https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002420(opens in new window)).
Global socio-economic datasets: We published novel global subnational datasets, including GDP (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-04487-x(opens in new window)) GNI, income inequality (https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5548291/v1(opens in new window)) and gridded Human net-migration (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01689-4(opens in new window)).
The project has resulted in 68 articles (64 peer-reviewed, 4 preprints), with 20 in top journals (Nature, Science, PNAS families) and over 15 in leading journals of our field. Two PhD researchers completed their doctorates through the project. Over 1250 media mentions reached an estimated audience of 35 million people.
Human impact on freshwater systems: Using a multi-model ensemble, we've quantified anthropogenic changes in streamflow and soil moisture over a 145-year industrial period (https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00208-7(opens in new window)). This marks the first comprehensive assessment of freshwater cycle deviations from pre-industrial baselines, revealing planetary boundary transgressions, and emphasizing sustainable water management.
Safe climatic space for agriculture: Our concept marks a major advancement in understanding climate change impacts on food systems by evaluating precipitation, temperature, and aridity to identify regions at risk of losing safe climatic conditions (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.017(opens in new window) https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01135-w(opens in new window)). This emphasizes the importance of climate adaptation strategies and low-emission paths.
Circular food systems and resource optimization: We demonstrated that integrating food system by-products can substantially reduce feedstock competition with human foods (https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00589-6(opens in new window)) offering pathways for improving global food supply through innovative practices.
Integrated solutions for sustainable food systems: We estimated food production within planetary boundaries and created models to evaluate dietary transition impacts, showcasing water savings through reduced animal protein consumption (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1(opens in new window) https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1258536/v1(opens in new window)).
Sustainable global livestock grazing: We explored carbon sequestration opportunities in livestock production (https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2405758121(opens in new window)) and assessed changes in grassland carrying capacity (https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16174(opens in new window)).
Novel socio-economic datasets: We've published several global socio-economic datasets, including GDP per capita (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-04487-x(opens in new window)) GNI per capita, and income inequality (https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5548291/v1(opens in new window)) as well as gridded Human net-migration data (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01689-4(opens in new window)). These datasets provide resources for integrating earth system analyses with socio-economic dynamics.
Safe climatic space for agriculture: Our concept marks a major advancement in understanding climate change impacts on food systems by evaluating precipitation, temperature, and aridity to identify regions at risk of losing safe climatic conditions (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.017(opens in new window) https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01135-w(opens in new window)). This emphasizes the importance of climate adaptation strategies and low-emission paths.
Circular food systems and resource optimization: We demonstrated that integrating food system by-products can substantially reduce feedstock competition with human foods (https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00589-6(opens in new window)) offering pathways for improving global food supply through innovative practices.
Integrated solutions for sustainable food systems: We estimated food production within planetary boundaries and created models to evaluate dietary transition impacts, showcasing water savings through reduced animal protein consumption (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1(opens in new window) https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1258536/v1(opens in new window)).
Sustainable global livestock grazing: We explored carbon sequestration opportunities in livestock production (https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2405758121(opens in new window)) and assessed changes in grassland carrying capacity (https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16174(opens in new window)).
Novel socio-economic datasets: We've published several global socio-economic datasets, including GDP per capita (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-04487-x(opens in new window)) GNI per capita, and income inequality (https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5548291/v1(opens in new window)) as well as gridded Human net-migration data (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01689-4(opens in new window)). These datasets provide resources for integrating earth system analyses with socio-economic dynamics.