Delivering on the Paris Agreement: A demand-driven, integrated assessment modelling approach

Project Information

PARIS REINFORCE

Grant agreement ID: 820846

DOI

10.3030/820846

Project closed

EC signature date 3 May 2019

Start date 1 June 2019

End date 30 November 2022

Funded under

• SOCIETAL CHALLENGES - Climate action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials

Total cost

€ 7 830 242,50

EU contribution

€ 6 950 548,75

Coordinated by

ETHNICON METSOVION POLYTECHNION
Greece

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - PARIS REINFORCE (Delivering on the Paris Agreement: A demand-driven, integrated assessment modelling approach)

Reporting period: 2020-12-01 to 2022-11-30

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

PARIS REINFORCE aimed at revolutionising the scientific paradigm and underpinning climate policymaking with authoritative processes and tangible results and enhancing and legitimising the science-policy interface leading to improved, evidence-based, inclusive, realistic, sustainable, and robust policies. Its objectives were:

O1. To develop a novel, IAM-oriented assessment framework for effectively supporting the design and evaluation of climate policies globally and in the EU as well as in all other major emitters and selected less developed countries, in respect to the objectives of the Paris Agreement:
-5 reports on EU decarbonisation (21 papers, 7 conferences)
-4 reports on major emitters and less-developed countries’ NDCs (19 papers, 2 conferences)
-4 policy reports on global-level insights (20 papers, 9 conferences)
-24 papers, 7 conferences on IA modelling
-2 policy briefs on decarbonisation at national level and the EU’s CBAM

O2. To enhance the legitimacy of the scientific processes in support of climate policymaking, by introducing an innovative stakeholder inclusion framework (co-design) and improving the transparency of the respective models, methods and tools:
-2 EU regional stakeholder events
-Database of ~4,000 stakeholders
-10 national workshops in Europe, 11 outside Europe
-Lessons for stakeholder engagement (4 papers, 3 conferences)
-3 reports on model ensemble (6 infographics, 1 interactive heatmap on models)
-2 reports on project tools and protocols
-Policy brief on model capabilities
-I2AM PARIS & interactive map of models (2 videos, 1 paper, 2 conferences)
-3 reports on model interlinkages
-41 non-academic commentaries (Forbes, Bloomberg, Spiegel, etc.)
-3 data management plans
-1 plan and 1 report on coordination and synergies with other projects
-2 final policy events

O3. To introduce innovative policy support frameworks that improve the robustness of modelling outcomes against different types of uncertainties, inherent in both the climate change domain and integrated assessment processes:
-Systems of innovation frameworks in 7 countries (4 papers, 7 infographics)
-Multiple-uncertainty IAM framework for SDGs, data analysis algorithm, open-source tool, applications (6 papers, 6 conferences)
-Multiple-criteria group decision framework, software, applications (7 papers, 3 conferences)
-FCM framework, open-source tool, applications (4 papers, 2 conferences)
-Index decomposition analysis framework for the EU
-Co-created transformative policy narratives for 5 countries (2 conferences)
-1 policy brief in EC’s COP26 Policy Publication

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

(a) I2AM PARIS platform
Co-designed with stakeholders.
Up and running since 11/2019.
Detailed, dynamic, comparative model documentation (19 project & 25 external models)
6 workspaces

(b) Stakeholder Council
~4,000 stakeholders
Early dialogue with key policymakers to determine topics finalised in EU policy workshop, series of national workshops for policy relevance, meetings with EC representatives, 2nd EU-wide event, 2nd series of national workshops for co-creation and ownership
Guide with learnt lessons
2 EU regional events, 21 national workshops

(c) Modelling
Europe: earlier than envisaged, in parallel with global runs, to produce results for IPCC AR6; documentation, harmonisation, update; a “Where are We Headed?” (WWH) scenario framework; analysis of SDG implications; final multi-model analysis, informed by stakeholders, policy updates, COVID adjustments, AFOLU strategies and CBAM, at member-state and sectoral level
Other regions: stakeholder-informed pathways (current policies vs. deep decarbonisation in Brazil, Canada, China, India, Mexico, Russia, USA, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan); SDG implications; analysis of 27 game-changing innovations; update of stakeholder-informed pathways (on increasing ambition and achieving net zero vis-à-vis perceived bottlenecks)
Globally: documentation, harmonisation, literature review on research capacity needs; model inter-comparison on WWH scenarios (early IPCC AR6 input); stakeholder narratives and interpretation/future of Paris Agreement; study of gaps between ambition and Paris targets; updated assessments for post-COP26 policies/pledges; employment and GDP impacts

(d) Robustification
Sociotechnical analyses capturing context of 7 countries, informing stakeholder dialogue and modelling; transformative policy mixes based on co-created insights in 5 countries
Multiple-criteria group decision aid frameworks developed and employed to facilitate knowledge elicitation and co-creation of model parameters, scenario components, research questions
Multiple-uncertainty analysis framework for modelling SDGs, developed and applied on global model runs, and to understand optimal COVID recovery packages
Sectoral index decomposition analysis of scenarios to assess how IAMs perform when benchmarked against sectoral models

(e) Communication, dissemination, exploitation
Development and distribution of information material, website design/update, 23 workshops and 2 final events, tens of external policy events, targeted social media presence, 2 videos, 16 infographics, 41 articles in non-scientific press, 27 newsletters and press releases, 99 papers, 43 scientific conferences, 36 open datasets, 2 Special Issues, 4 targeted policy briefs, submissions to Global Stocktake (5), scenarios to IPCC AR6 WGIII (43), EU scenarios to EU SAB on Climate Change

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

POLICY
1,066 policymakers in Stakeholder Council
1 policy brief on how models work (11/2019)
Participation in EASME policy brief on COVID-19 & the EGD (11/2020)
1 policy brief on Greece's delignitisation (05/2021)
Contribution to COP26 EC Policy Publication on post-COVID climate action (11/2021)
Participation in open consultation for Greece's NECP
Scenarios submitted to EEA's European SAB on Climate Change
5 submissions to Global Stocktake (05/2022)
Regional EU policy workshop in Brussels, Belgium (11/2019, 57 participants)
Online EU-regional policy webinar (05/2021, livestream)
Physical policy event in Athens, Greece (11/2022, 172 participants)
Physical policy event in Paris, France (11/2022, 60 participants)
2 submissions to EC's 2040 target planning

SOCIETY
Stakeholder Council (3,981 stakeholders)
Co-creation workshops (date, participants):
1. Tokyo, Japan (12/2019, >60)
2. Athens, Greece (01/2020, 399)
3. Online, Kenya (10/2020, 45)
4. Online, India (11/2020, 35)
5-7. Online, Central Asian Caspian region (12/2020, 03/2021, 05/2021, 23)
8. Online, Russia (03/2021, 135)
9. Online, Switzerland (05/2021, 30)
10. Online, France (05/2021, 26)
11. Online, Spain (05/2021, 40)
12. Online, USA (05/2021, 65)
13. Online, Netherlands (06/2021, 60)
14. Online, Ukraine (06/2021, livestream)
15. Online, China (06/2021, 19)
16. Online poll and webinar (06/2021, 1,001 households)
17. Online, Brazil (05/2022, 7)
18. Online, Canada (05/2022, 12)
19. Expert survey ‘game-changing innovations’ (Q1-Q2 2022, 260)
20. Athens, Greece (06/2022, 45)
21. Venice, Italy (07/2022, 25)
22. Berlin, Germany (07/2022, 17)
23. London, UK (10/2022, 28)
24. Online poll and webinar (10/2022, 1,026)
Dissemination in society:
- 2 videos
- 16 infographics
- 41 media articles

SCIENCE
- 99 peer-reviewed papers, >30 manuscripts under review
- 43 scientific conferences
- 2 Special Issues (ESPB & RSET)
- Contribution to IPCC AR6 WGIII (50 refs to project papers, 43 scenarios)
- I2AM PARIS (6 workspaces, 44 models), sustained in 4 EU projects

PARIS REINFORCE website landing page

PARIS REINFORCE logo

I2AM PARIS platform landing page