Climate Change and Future Marine Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity

Project Information

FutureMARES

Grant agreement ID: 869300

DOI

10.3030/869300

Project closed

EC signature date 23 April 2020

Start date 1 September 2020

End date 31 August 2024

Funded under

• SOCIETAL CHALLENGES - Climate action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials

Total cost

€ 8 555 905,00

EU contribution

€ 8 555 905,00

Coordinated by

STICHTING NEDERLANDSE WETENSCHAPPELIJK ONDERZOEK INSTITUTEN
Netherlands

Periodic Reporting for period 3 - FutureMARES (Climate Change and Future Marine Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity)

Reporting period: 2023-09-01 to 2024-08-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Coastal and offshore marine systems support a large portion of the global biodiversity and play a major contribution to society, harboring key climate regulating processes and habitats, contributing to worldwide food security, in addition to other valuable economic and wellbeing services and resources. These areas also hold some of the most heavily exploited ecosystems in the world. The ongoing global crises of biodiversity loss and climate change pose great threats to the natural capital of these systems. FutureMARES is designed to provide socially and economically viable actions, strategies and Nature-based Solutions (NBS) for climate change (CC) adaptation and mitigation to safeguard future biodiversity, and ecosystem functions, maximising natural capital and its delivery of services from marine and transitional ecosystems. Habitat restoration and conservation (NBS1, NBS2) were explored in relation to sustainable Nature-inclusive Harvesting of seafood (NIH).
The main objectives and goals of FutureMARES are to:
1. Advance our understanding of the links between species traits and community roles, ecological functions and ecosystem services as impacted by CC;
2. Deliver ensemble projections of the physical and biogeochemical effects of CC at appropriate spatiotemporal scales that reduce uncertainty and identify climate hotspots and refugia;
3. Perform field and mesocosm experiments to fill key knowledge gaps on CC impacts on species functions and habitats including ecological adaptive capacity;
4. Predict the effects of CC on the distribution and productivity of important (keystone, structural, endangered) species and consequences for marine biodiversity using state-of-the-art tools;
5. Conduct social-ecological risk assessments ranking the effects of CC on marine ecosystems, services and human communities with and without implementation of NBS and/or NIH;
6. Perform economic analyses of based on implementation scenarios of NBS and/or NIH at real-world demonstration sites including the costs and benefits;
7. Co-develop project research activities with decision- and policy-makers and managers to help ensure impactful, transformative, science-based advice on CC adaptation and mitigation strategies;
8. Effectively communicate and engage with a broad range of stakeholders involved in the stewardship of natural capital, biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The FutureMARES project successfully contributed science-based advice on how best to implement nature-based solutions (NBS) and sustainable, nature-inclusive harvesting to rebuild marine biodiversity and contribute to climate adaptation and mitigation:
Goal 1. Historical climate impacts on species and communities were analysed after compiling 88 time series (~512,000 obs.) spanning up to 4 decades. Advanced statistical methods explored relationships among traits, ecological functions and ecosystem services including reviews of ecological indicators.
Goal 2. Downscaled (higher spatial resolution) projections are available from an ensemble of Global Climate Models including uncertainty analyses. Results include warming, pH, dissolved oxygen concentration and productivity (Chlorophyl a) at three depth layers for three IPCC scenarios for all regions examined in FutureMARES. Maps of climate hotspots and refugia were produced.
Goal 3. Laboratory and field experiments compared the ecological function of healthy and degraded habitats including seagrasses, macrophytes and shellfish. This includes community carbon budgets and thermal / heat wave tolerance of key species. Adaptive capacity was explored by comparing climate sensitivity of populations of a species at lower (warmer) and higher (colder) latitudes.
Goal 4. Improved models have provided more robust projections of climate-driven changes in the distribution and/or productivity of i) plants and animals at the base of the food web being restored or harvested, ii) marine mammals, birds and at-risk species, iii) harvested fish and shellfish, and iv) whole food webs where 9 Digital Laboratories provided scenario-based NBS, NIH and climate projections of ecosystem-level changes at both basin (5) and sub-regional (4) scales.
Goal 5. A general methodology was designed for climate risk assessments (CRAs) with and without the implementation of NBS and NIH for different CC scenarios. The ecological risk of species and/or habitats, ecosystem services and social groups were completed and risks compared across climate scenarios, NBSs and regions. An online CRA tool was produced to allow broader, consistent implementation of methods.
Goal 6. A framework for ecosystem service indicators in relation to restoration, conservation and sustainable harvesting was compiled. Analyses used different techniques to gauge the economic trade-offs of implementing NBS and/or NIH. Methods included traditional valued (e.g. provisional - fisheries) as well as non-valued (cultural) ecosystem services.
Goal 7. Partners have actively used various engagement tools. Scenario narratives were co-developed with policymakers and were regionalized across FutureMARES Storylines. A Call for Knowledge Platform yielded two examples of new analyses co-created at the request of policy advisors in Ireland and Norway.
Goal 8. Policy-makers and managers have been continually updated on project progress. FutureMARES has been integrated within larger programs exploring NBS in terrestrial (rural, urban) and marine environments, and collaboration started with other projects examining CC adaptation and mitigation and/or solutions to the ongoing biodiversity crisis.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

FutureMARES collected, developed and applied the best available physical and biological data sets, projection tools, and social and economic frameworks to provide innovative science-based advice on implementing marine Nature-based Solutions (NBS) and Nature-inclusive Harvesting (NIH) in marine waters. State-of-the-art tools providing results to the latest IPBES and IPCC reports have been advanced to provide knowledge integrating ecological, social and economic impacts of climate change (CC) under different scenarios of NBS and NIH implementation. FutureMARES: i) improved projections of physical and biological impacts of CC, ii) advanced knowledge on the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of key habitat-forming species to CC, iii) incorporated ecological process knowledge into advanced projection models, and iv) developed and applied novel risk assessments for social-ecological systems. FutureMARES leveraged a network of researchers at the forefront of their disciplines to advance the interdisciplinary research needed for CC adaptation and mitigation in complex social-ecological systems. FutureMARES maximised the exploitation and implementation of its results and products by actively engaging policymakers and managers at the national, regional and international levels to share fit-for-purpose tools and advice needed for national marine spatial planning, various EU Nature Directives and its Biodiversity and Climate Adaptation Strategies, and international (IPCC, IPBES, CFB, UNEP) levels. The tools and products of FutureMARES will help environmental managers implement climate-smart habitat restoration and/or networks of marine protected areas to better conserve and restore biodiversity and health of coastal and marine habitats.

Nature-based Solutions (NBS) and Nature-inclusive Harvesting (NIH) advanced in FutureMARES