Periodic Reporting for period 3 - PROTECT (PROjecTing sEa-level rise : from iCe sheets to local implicaTions)
Berichtszeitraum: 2023-09-01 bis 2025-02-28
The overarching scientific objective of PROTECT was to assess and project changes in the land-based cryosphere with quantified uncertainties to produce robust global, regional, and local projections of sea-level rise across diverse timescales. A distinctive feature of the project was strong collaboration between coastal planning stakeholders and sea-level scientists (from glaciologists to coastal impact specialists), aimed at identifying key risks and opportunities from global to local scales, boosting European competitiveness in climate services, and supporting coastal adaptation and mitigation planning.
PROTECT aimed to: (a) assess the current mass balance of ice sheets and glaciers, quantify the roles of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability in their changes, and use remote-sensing observations to evaluate and improve projection models; (b) apply improved understanding of short-term variability to make projections to 2050, relevant to today’s coastal management; (c) use newly developed, coupled climate–ice sheet models to project sea-level rise from glacier and ice sheet changes to 2150, aligned with IPCC planning horizons; and (d) assess the irreversibility of mass loss and associated sea-level rise commitment through 2300 and beyond, critical to the viability of coastal cities, small islands, and low-lying states.
PROTECT adopted a ‘twin-track’ approach. The ‘Fast-Track’ used existing Antarctic, Greenland, and glacier SLR estimates to initiate stakeholder co-design of methodology (WP2) and generate early projections tailored to stakeholder needs (WP7). In parallel, four research packages (WPs 3–6) addressed critical scientific questions related to land-ice mass loss affecting global SLR estimates. These advances informed the ‘Full-Track’, which used the same co-designed methodology but with updated SLR estimates from new scientific developments.
PROTECT advanced the state of the art in several key areas of sea-level science. The project introduced improved representations of cryospheric processes—ice shelf damage, calving, firn evolution, and sub-shelf melting—within ice-sheet models, integrating them into ensemble frameworks. It also enabled coupled interactions between atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets, with model couplings and parameterisations adapted to European systems. These innovations improved the realism and relevance of projections by quantifying uncertainties out to 2300. Crucially, PROTECT complemented technical progress with strong stakeholder engagement and policy-relevant outputs, ensuring science directly supported coastal adaptation and placing PROTECT at the forefront of probabilistic, stakeholder-oriented SLR research. This was reinforced by policy briefs, an open-access SLR webtool, educational resources and games, and a public-facing art exhibition—all designed to enhance awareness, usability, and impact. Societal outcomes include improved public understanding of sea-level risks, better-informed decision frameworks, and stronger paths toward sustainable coastal resilience.
PROTECT aimed to: (a) assess the current mass balance of ice sheets and glaciers, quantify the roles of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability in their changes, and use remote-sensing observations to evaluate and improve projection models; (b) apply improved understanding of short-term variability to make projections to 2050, relevant to today’s coastal management; (c) use newly developed, coupled climate–ice sheet models to project sea-level rise from glacier and ice sheet changes to 2150, aligned with IPCC planning horizons; and (d) assess the irreversibility of mass loss and associated sea-level rise commitment through 2300 and beyond, critical to the viability of coastal cities, small islands, and low-lying states.
PROTECT adopted a ‘twin-track’ approach. The ‘Fast-Track’ used existing Antarctic, Greenland, and glacier SLR estimates to initiate stakeholder co-design of methodology (WP2) and generate early projections tailored to stakeholder needs (WP7). In parallel, four research packages (WPs 3–6) addressed critical scientific questions related to land-ice mass loss affecting global SLR estimates. These advances informed the ‘Full-Track’, which used the same co-designed methodology but with updated SLR estimates from new scientific developments.
PROTECT advanced the state of the art in several key areas of sea-level science. The project introduced improved representations of cryospheric processes—ice shelf damage, calving, firn evolution, and sub-shelf melting—within ice-sheet models, integrating them into ensemble frameworks. It also enabled coupled interactions between atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets, with model couplings and parameterisations adapted to European systems. These innovations improved the realism and relevance of projections by quantifying uncertainties out to 2300. Crucially, PROTECT complemented technical progress with strong stakeholder engagement and policy-relevant outputs, ensuring science directly supported coastal adaptation and placing PROTECT at the forefront of probabilistic, stakeholder-oriented SLR research. This was reinforced by policy briefs, an open-access SLR webtool, educational resources and games, and a public-facing art exhibition—all designed to enhance awareness, usability, and impact. Societal outcomes include improved public understanding of sea-level risks, better-informed decision frameworks, and stronger paths toward sustainable coastal resilience.
PROTECT addressed a critical global challenge: assessing and projecting cryosphere changes and sea-level rise (SLR) impacts with quantified uncertainties. This work supports informed coastal adaptation, reduces risk for vulnerable communities, and strengthens European climate service leadership.
PROTECT aimed to:
1. Improve understanding and modelling of ice-sheet processes
It advanced modelling of ice-sheet processes, including sub-shelf melt, calving, and firn evolution. These upgrades improved ice mass loss predictions. CalvingMIP benchmarked calving models, and remote sensing aided model calibration—marking a step forward in process-based modelling.
2. Enhance modelling of atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet interactions
It innovated in modelling feedbacks among the atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets. Key advances included basal melt parameterisations, regional downscaling, and coupled Earth System Models with ice sheet dynamics—capturing feedbacks critical for long-term forecasts.
3. Strengthen robustness of SLR projections
It improved SLR projections via advanced uncertainty methodologies, including contributions to the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS). Multi-model ensemble projections extended to 2300, covering Greenland, Antarctica, and global glaciers, setting a new standard in probabilistic modelling.
4. Assess societal implications of high-end SLR
High-end SLR risks were systematically assessed. PROTECT evaluated exposure and socio-economic vulnerability up to 2300, offering global and case-specific assessments (e.g. France, Netherlands, Maldives, Greenland). Results fed into EU and global adaptation policies.
5. Mentor the next generation of sea-level scientists
PROTECT trained 36+ early-career researchers (ECRs), many of whom assumed leadership roles. Several earned permanent academic posts, and one received an ERC Starting Grant—demonstrating PROTECT’s contribution to long-term scientific capacity in Europe.
PROTECT aimed to:
1. Improve understanding and modelling of ice-sheet processes
It advanced modelling of ice-sheet processes, including sub-shelf melt, calving, and firn evolution. These upgrades improved ice mass loss predictions. CalvingMIP benchmarked calving models, and remote sensing aided model calibration—marking a step forward in process-based modelling.
2. Enhance modelling of atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet interactions
It innovated in modelling feedbacks among the atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets. Key advances included basal melt parameterisations, regional downscaling, and coupled Earth System Models with ice sheet dynamics—capturing feedbacks critical for long-term forecasts.
3. Strengthen robustness of SLR projections
It improved SLR projections via advanced uncertainty methodologies, including contributions to the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS). Multi-model ensemble projections extended to 2300, covering Greenland, Antarctica, and global glaciers, setting a new standard in probabilistic modelling.
4. Assess societal implications of high-end SLR
High-end SLR risks were systematically assessed. PROTECT evaluated exposure and socio-economic vulnerability up to 2300, offering global and case-specific assessments (e.g. France, Netherlands, Maldives, Greenland). Results fed into EU and global adaptation policies.
5. Mentor the next generation of sea-level scientists
PROTECT trained 36+ early-career researchers (ECRs), many of whom assumed leadership roles. Several earned permanent academic posts, and one received an ERC Starting Grant—demonstrating PROTECT’s contribution to long-term scientific capacity in Europe.
PROTECT has delivered significant advances across multiple dimensions of sea-level science, moving the state of the art forward. The project made substantial progress in representing physical processes governing ice-sheet and glacier dynamics, notably through new parameterisations for firn evolution, ice shelf damage, calving, and sub-shelf melting. These were incorporated into both stand-alone and coupled modelling frameworks, enabling more realistic simulations of ice-sheet responses to climate forcing. In particular, PROTECT enhanced understanding of how basal hydrology and ice damage affect ice dynamics, and how ocean and atmospheric processes interact with land ice at critical boundaries. The project also advanced integration of ice-sheet models with regional and global climate models, achieving greater complexity in two-way coupling. Beyond process representation, PROTECT delivered methodological breakthroughs with tools for flexible, traceable downscaling of climate forcing and robust uncertainty propagation frameworks. These tools supported consistent multi-model ensembles projecting sea-level rise to 2300 and beyond, capturing a wide range of physical and socio-economic uncertainties. By combining advances in physical understanding, modelling capability, and stakeholder co-design, PROTECT redefined best practices for decision-relevant sea-level rise projections and supported adaptation planning under deep uncertainty.