Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy

Project Information

QuantMig

Grant agreement ID: 870299

DOI

10.3030/870299

Project closed

EC signature date 8 November 2019

Start date 1 February 2020

End date 31 July 2023

Funded under

• SOCIETAL CHALLENGES - Europe In A Changing World - Inclusive, Innovative And Reflective Societies

Total cost

€ 3 338 729,00

EU contribution

€ 3 174 860,00

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON
United Kingdom

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - QuantMig (Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy)

Reporting period: 2021-02-01 to 2023-07-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Migration is complex and uncertain. Its high profile across Europe and worldwide results in many policy actions being proposed and implemented, which directly or indirectly influence migration processes. To be effective, such policies need to be forward-looking, while at the same time acknowledging the complexity and uncertainty of migration, and trade-offs between different policy options and their likely outcomes.

The aim of QuantMig was to produce comprehensive, multi-perspective and robust quantitative migration scenarios to support European migration policy. To achieve that, we made advances in conceptualising, explaining, estimating and predicting migration, for a range of migration flows and time horizons. The scenarios and other tools that were developed in the project, such as early warnings and forecasts, offer an analytical blueprint for exploring different possible migration futures.

The backbone of the QuantMig work was to address different types of uncertainty on future migration. Some of this uncertainty can be reduced through better knowledge and methodological advancements. Here, QuantMig research concentrated on furthering our understanding of complex driver environments of migration across the origin, destination and transit regions. We have also delivered a dedicated set of harmonised migration estimates for Europe for 2009-19.

At the same time, a large part of future migration uncertainty remains irreducible. This requires policy makers to work towards preparedness, with contingency plans in place for different possibilities. QuantMig addressed this challenge by developing and testing new tools, from methods for forward-looking analysis of migration trends across time, to adopting a novel approach to scenario setting, focused on the frequency and magnitude of rare migration events.

In terms of societal impact, the project has delivered important contributions for migration policy and practice. Numerical predictions are crucial for operational purposes and planning in the short- and mid-term, but the long-term strategic objectives call for stress-testing of responses and contingency plans with coherent scenarios. As uncertainty becomes an inherent part of migration discourse, tailoring decision support tools to specific circumstances can help make policies more "future-proof" and realistic, benefitting host societies and migrants alike.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

QuantMig has achieved its objectives across all five project domains: concepts, driver environments, data and estimates, scenarios, and dissemination and communication. In the first domain, the foundational work package (WP1) has provided the conceptual base for the project, focusing on uncertainty of migration processes, theories, individual decisions, policies and governance.

The second domain included work packages looking at complex driver environments in the countries of origin (WP2), destination (WP3) and transit (WP4). For origins, the analysis concentrated on migration aspirations and their determinants, in particular on conflict and climate change. Innovative simulation methods were also developed to study the outcomes of individual migration decisions. For destination drivers, we focused on policy uncertainty, attitudes, and key destinations of asylum in Europe, and for intra-EU migration, on spatial patterns for EU-born and non-EU-born migrants.

In the domain of data and estimates, QuantMig produced three inventories of migration data, drivers, and policies (WP5), freely available from the project website. The website also hosts the QuantMig Migration Estimates Explorer - a searchable database of harmonised migration estimates within, into and out of Europe, by origin, destination, sex, age, and region of birth. These estimates were developed for 2009-19 (WP6), supplementing and extending earlier work on the Integrated Model of European Migration (IMEM) estimates for 2002-08.

The forecasts and scenarios domain included a review of existing scenario-based approaches to migration futures, followed by an innovative study on migration between Europe and the Middle East and North Africa, confirming the problems with driver-based scenarios (WP7). The scenarios developed in the project (WP8), linking migration to changes in population, labour force, and other variables, are also available online, from the QuantMig Migration Scenarios Explorer. The scenarios follow a novel approach to modelling rare migration events, supplemented by short-term early warnings, mid-range forecasts, and theoretical models for assessing migration uncertainty (WP9).

In the fifth domain, the dissemination and communication activities involved developing and documenting the online tools, including the simulation model (WP10). Stakeholder-oriented activities included two technical webinars, two high-level expert meetings, one policy event, several policy briefs, a set of school materials with an online quiz app, as well as a suite of other activities and outcomes, such as publications, conference talks, videos or podcasts (WP11). The now-archived Twitter account (@QuantMig) remained very active throughout the project, ensuring high levels of user engagement and online presence of QuantMig.

The QuantMig website, www.quantmig.eu documents all the achievements of the project, including nearly 50 public reports, three open inventories - of migration data, drivers and migration policies, two interactive explorers - of estimates and scenarios, all educational materials, as well as links to publications and key project events. The data generated in the project are openly available from the QuantMig community on the Zenodo repository, at zenodo.org/communities/quantmig.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

QuantMig has achieved substantial progress beyond the state of the art of migration research. In the conceptual and theoretical domains, we have proposed novel taxonomies of the key areas underpinning the objectives of the project, such as migration uncertainty, driver environments, or decisions. We have formulated testable hypotheses based on theories, looked into conflict and climate as important migration drivers, and provided systematic reviews of migration aspirations or the use of scenarios for studying migration futures.

In methodological terms, we have updated the knowledge base on European migration by providing harmonised estimates with measures of uncertainty, and offered a novel approach to scenario setting based on modelling rare migration events. We have also provided a roadmap for exploring uncertainty in studying migration futures with various tools, from early warnings to macroeconomic modelling. In substantive terms, we have examined the role of uncertainty of migration policies and governance in shaping migration flows.

QuantMig has provided a blueprint for studying migration futures, with tools and approaches for scanning different horizons ranging from operational early warnings about ongoing processes to strategic planning a few decades ahead. We have continued efforts to bring uncertainty and complexity into mainstream migration discourse, with particular attention to preparedness and limits of knowledge. With its policy focus, QuantMig has generated substantial interest from different stakeholder groups. The work on impact and stakeholder engagement continues beyond the project, demonstrating the potential of QuantMig results for shaping European migration policy.

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