It has been the mission of the METIS project to bridge the gap between advanced research in earthquake engineering and the practical needs of the nuclear industry.
Work Performed
Over the 57-month duration of the project, the METIS consortium—comprising 15 partners from 9 countries—executed a comprehensive research and development program:
• Hazard Characterization: METIS partners developed advanced methods for Vector Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (VPSHA) and implemented it in openquake software. We also, implemented the CS-approach and investigated the inclusion of aftershock sequences into traditional hazard models.
• Site Response & Ground motion : project has developed and promoted advanced methodologies considering scenario earthquakes together with uncertainty and variability instead of envelope design loads on rock. A comprehensive procedure for the uncertainty propagation in 1D site response analyses was developed.
• Fragility: METIS integrated Bayesian approaches and advances uncertainty quantification and propagation approaches to update fragility curves for critical components, moving away from overly conservative assumptions toward realistic, data-driven performance estimates.
• PSA & Risk Quantification: We built a streamlined toolset for uncertainty propagation, connecting hazard and fragility data directly into the risk quantification stage to calculate Core Damage Frequency (CDF) with higher confidence.
• The METIS Hybrid Case Study: To validate tools, METIS partners conducted a massive hybrid case study. This involved applying new and improved methodologies to a model of a Ukrainian VVER-1000 plant using seismic data from Central Italy, providing a rigorous "stress test" for our integrated analysis chain.
• Open-Source Software Development: A major pillar of our work was the "OpenMETIS" initiative. METIS has delivered new or improved opensource tools (based on openquake, code_aster, SCRAM) for the full analysis chain from seismic hazard to fragility and risk assessment.
Main Results Achieved, Exploitation and Dissemination
The METIS project contributed to improve the state of the art for realistic seismic response for fragility and risk assessments. By replacing conservatism with "best-estimate" physics and robust statistics.
• Physics-based simulation approaches were developed to increase fidelity and accuracy of engineering models.
• Integrated Analysis Chain: A fully consistent path from rock-level hazard to system-level risk has been established. The conducted pilot studies had the goal of eliminating and inconsistencies that often occur at the interface between seismologists and engineers.
• Advanced Software Toolkit: We successfully released several open-source tools, including:
• PyPSHATest: For testing and comparing PSHA models against historical observations.
• PRA Uncertainty propagation Tool: A framework for managing seismic PSA data and performing Boolean risk computations.
• Community & Technology Transfer: Through the METIS Final Symposium and various summer schools and training sessions for engineers, we have trained a new generation of safety engineers and ensured that our research is directly exploitable by industry end-users, SMEs, and regulators.
• Visibility of R&D in nuclear through publications in peer reviewed journals, increase the attractiveness of technical jobs in nuclear among early stage researchers
The deliverables can be downloaded on the METIS website
https://metis-h2020.eu/(opens in new window).
Data and reports related to the data, simulation tools and the METIS case study are available through openMETIS Zendo community:
https://zenodo.org/communities/openmetis(opens in new window)New codes and tools developed in METIS are available on openMETIS gitlab repository:
https://gitlab.pam-retd.fr/openmetis(opens in new window)In particular, the Final Handbook, deliverable D2.5 is a comprehensive document summarizing the project and it’s key finding, results and recommendations.
Dissemination includes:
• Conferences: Special sessions were organized at WCEE 2025 in Milano, Italy and at SMiRT26 in Berlin; 19 conference communications presented at relevant conferences such as ECEE, WCEE, SMiRT, FISA-EURADWASTE
• Scientific papers : 14 journal publications
• Training: 4 Summer schools, Code_aster training session (basic and seismic analyses), Training for young researchers and engineers were organized
The use of the opensource tools facilitates uptake and acceptance of the methods. Project partners benefit from the possibility to use and further build on these models and software developments, even beyond the project.
