The nuclear gamble: luck, democracy and security
What guides decisions related to nuclear weapons? Is nuclear deterrence – the strategy of possessing nuclear weapons to discourage attacks – a reliable safety net? These are just some of the complex questions tackled by the EU-funded NUCLEAR(opens in new window) project. “Getting to know the answer to those questions is all the more important as nuclear weapons choices commit populations and societies for decades and can wipe them out in a matter of minutes,” says Benoît Pelopidas who coordinated the project with European Research Council (ERC) backing. Through comprehensive analysis of untapped archival sources, interviews worldwide and surveys across nine European countries, the project has delivered groundbreaking insights that reframe our understanding of nuclear security, responsibility and the choices regarding nuclear arsenals in a world of war and climate change.
The role of luck in nuclear security
One of NUCLEAR’s most significant findings concerns the role of luck in preventing nuclear explosions. Researchers developed a method to analyse past incidents where factors beyond human control, such as technical failures and protocol violations, averted catastrophes. They show that the lessons about the role of those factors(opens in new window) have not been learned. “We now know that if we have avoided unwanted nuclear explosions so far, it is not thanks to the perfect success of nuclear deterrence but also thanks to luck,” affirms Pelopidas. The project also challenges the belief that nuclear proliferation(opens in new window) is inevitable. Contrary to common assumptions, it finds that desire for nuclear weapons is “not universal but rare” and has slowed down since the Cold War. In addition, it reveals how the permanent UN Security Council members have contributed to spreading nuclear technology and the desire for it.
Democracy and public opinion
The research further highlights that nuclear weapons policies and acquisition create barriers to democratic accountability – a finding supported by survey and archival sources from multiple countries. The project’s survey work is a major milestone. For the first time, researchers systematically gathered data on public knowledge and attitudes towards nuclear weapons in nine European countries, including nuclear-armed states, host nations and non-hosts like Sweden and Poland. Conducted in both 2019 and 2024, the survey enables long-term tracking of public opinion. One notable outcome occurred in 2020, when the project’s survey data informed US policy debates on nuclear testing. It showed strong public opposition across the US and allied nations, helping to prevent the proposed resumption of testing.
Rethinking nuclear responsibility
NUCLEAR also found that the consequences of national security policy on climate change – and the links between nuclear weapons and broader planetary transformations – are often ignored, rather than studied or addressed in research and policy planning. The project proposes a shift in nuclear responsibility, extending accountability to include past and future victims of foreseeable nuclear harm. It also warns against framing avoidable consequences as tragic inevitabilities(opens in new window), a move that shields decision-makers from scrutiny. “I hope this research will encourage policymakers to avoid or resist illusions of perfect control over nuclear weapons and give stakeholders a clearer sense of the choices they have regarding nuclear weapons,” states Pelopidas. Unlike much nuclear policy research that suffers from funding carrying conflicts of interest(opens in new window), NUCLEAR offers an independent, evidence-based foundation for reshaping nuclear security.
