The human factor in the zero-carbon economy transition
Achieving societal change requires a deep understanding of human motivations and behaviour. When it comes to the energy transition for example, people respond differently to economic incentives generated by policies. “Consider subsidies for the adoption of renewable energy sources,” says GEOCEP(opens in new window) project manager Jean-François Auger from Charles University(opens in new window) in Prague. “Households with a high income may be less sensitive to energy price hikes and be more likely to invest in expensive renewable technologies than lower income households.” There is also a technical challenge. Consumers expect a continuous, on-demand supply of energy, while the renewable energy sources are intermittent. Also, the energy infrastructure remains oriented towards fossil fuels and delays the transition.
Navigating towards a post-fossil fuel world
The GEOCEP project, supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions(opens in new window) programme, sought to identify viable energy transition pathways and climate adaption and mitigation strategies via cutting-edge modelling. Through international collaborations, researchers developed next-generation models to account for issues such as energy and climate policy impacts and pricing. Sophisticated models were also developed to better understand the effects of extreme climate-related events, such as fires, droughts and tornadoes, on communities. “Progress was also made on the dynamics of international cooperation, national policy and finances related to climate change and energy transition,” adds Auger. “For example, central banks need models to monitor the impact of extreme weather events on inflation to meet their mandate of price stability.” Insights gleaned from modelling have the potential to contribute towards reaching the goals contained in the EU’s 2030 climate and energy framework(opens in new window), which calls for a 32 % share for renewable energy and a 32.5 % improvement in energy efficiency.
Network of international researchers
The GEOCEP project led to a plethora of scientific outputs. Nearly 200 papers were presented at international scientific conferences, with results published in high-impact, peer-reviewed journals. “The project also successfully established a network of international researchers spanning five continents,” notes Auger. “It has significantly enhanced the qualifications of research and development personnel, ensuring that the next generation of researchers has the skills to integrate environmental factors in economic analyses and policy design.” With 26 PhD students benefiting from the project, many are now completing their dissertations and entering the academic job market equipped with specialised expertise in the modelling of climate change and energy policy. “A huge benefit was that these researchers have been exposed to the most advanced research methods,” says Auger. “One European researcher went to the United States to model geo-satellite imagery with socio-economic data and assess the impact of drought on crop choices by farmers.”
Socio-economic energy-climate modelling
A follow-up MSCA-funded project called M4G will begin shortly and run until 2030. This project will develop socio-economic energy-climate modelling to support EU climate and energy policies, as well as the transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. “M4G’s focus will be on integrating energy and climate models into natural environments,” remarks Auger. “Researchers will continue developing next-generation integrated assessment models that combine socio-economic and natural data. Notably, the models will cover the impact of climate change on land, water, biodiversity and ecosystem services.” M4G will also continue to model consumer behaviour and address technology uptake and lifestyle changes. “We will work on the public acceptability of climate and energy policies so that they leave a fair and equitable world for future generations,” concludes Auger.
