Periodic Reporting for period 2 - NDC ASPECTS (Assessing Sectoral Perspectives on Climate Transitions to support the Global Stocktake and subsequent NDCs)
Reporting period: 2022-11-01 to 2024-09-30
One of the key features of the Paris Agreement (PA) for responding to climate change is the five-yearly Global Stocktake (GST). The purpose of the GST is to review the implementation of the PA in order to assess the collective progress towards achieving the purpose of the PA and its long-term goals. The outcome of the GST shall inform the PA's Parties in updating and enhancing their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
NDC ASPECTS provided inputs to the GST and supported the potential and gender-responsive revision of existing NDCs, as well as the development of new NDCs and long-term strategies for the post-2030 period. The project focused on four sectoral systems that are highly relevant in terms of the greenhouse gas emissions they produce yet have thus far made only limited progress in decarbonization: transport and mobility (land-based transport and international aviation & shipping), emissions-intensive industries, buildings, and agriculture, forestry, and land-use, including their supply by and interaction with the energy conversion sector.
For each of those sectors, NDC ASPECTS organised “Sectoral Conversations” to co-create evidence-based narratives with sectoral experts and stakeholders, drawing on the consortium’s extensive networks. On this basis, NDC ASPECTS developed enhanced global pathways to inform the GST as well as national pathways for strategically selected countries for each of the four sectors. In addition, the project systematically assessed transformation drivers, barriers and policy options in the target countries. Furthermore, NDC ASPECTS developed recommendations to enhance global climate governance to enable and facilitate sectoral transformations towards climate neutrality and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.
NDC ASPECTS provided inputs to the GST and supported the potential and gender-responsive revision of existing NDCs, as well as the development of new NDCs and long-term strategies for the post-2030 period. The project focused on four sectoral systems that are highly relevant in terms of the greenhouse gas emissions they produce yet have thus far made only limited progress in decarbonization: transport and mobility (land-based transport and international aviation & shipping), emissions-intensive industries, buildings, and agriculture, forestry, and land-use, including their supply by and interaction with the energy conversion sector.
For each of those sectors, NDC ASPECTS organised “Sectoral Conversations” to co-create evidence-based narratives with sectoral experts and stakeholders, drawing on the consortium’s extensive networks. On this basis, NDC ASPECTS developed enhanced global pathways to inform the GST as well as national pathways for strategically selected countries for each of the four sectors. In addition, the project systematically assessed transformation drivers, barriers and policy options in the target countries. Furthermore, NDC ASPECTS developed recommendations to enhance global climate governance to enable and facilitate sectoral transformations towards climate neutrality and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.
The NDC ASPECTS Project quickly set up a working structure and achieved all intended objectives and results by the end of the project:
The Sectoral Conversations were implemented with slight adjustments due to sector-specific circumstances as reported in the first periodic report. Key challenges and achievements of each Sectoral Conversation are reported in the cross-sectoral synthesis in D1.2. Overall, we find that the Sectoral Conversations approach was successful in promoting dialogue and mutual learning, leading to the identification of key challenges and opportunities for decarbonisation in each sector.
Two international bunker fuel models, for the maritime and aviation sectors, were developed and used to assess the potential contribution of the sectors to meet deep decarbonization goals, including the Paris Agreement objectives and the IMO goals. Results were reported in D2.1 and a scientific journal article.
Using two leading Integrated Assessment Models (GCAM and PROMETHEUS), the project developed enhanced global mitigation pathways including the latest national climate policies (including the effects from the recent energy crisis), NDCs and long-term targets as reported in D2.3 and three peer-reviewed scientific articles. In addition, the project assessed the implications of these new mitigation pathways for the Sustainable Development Goals as reported in D2.4.
The project developed sectoral mitigation pathways and benchmarks for key sectoral mitigation options or bundles of options, including globally traded direct reduced iron, light electric vehicles, alternative routes for the transformation of the EU building sector, and constraints of the mitigation potential of AFOLU. Results are reported in D3.1 D3.2 eight policy papers and several peer-reviewed articles.
The project analysed the determinants of ambition in updated NDCs and risk factors for successful implementation of NDCs. Results were reported in D4.1 and D4.2 one peer-reviewed article already published and one currently under peer review.
The project analysed mitigation drivers and barriers and policy options in the four target sectors in the 20 target countries, covering at least two sectors for each country. Results are reported in D4.3 and D4.4 one peer-reviewed article already published and one in the peer-review process.
The project developed sectoral deep dives and enhanced national mitigation pathways for all its target countries. Results are reported in D5.1 (data tables) and D5.2 (country fiches). The work on Tier-1 countries included engagements with relevant national stakeholders to ensure the relevance of the research.
The project mapped the global climate governance landscape for its four target sectors, and in addition assessed the potential of climate clubs, supply-side climate policy, and the Global Stocktake. This work identified governance gaps and developed recommendations on how to address those gaps to further strengthen the global enabling environment for sectoral transformations. Results are reported in D6.1 - D6.4 and in seven peer-reviewed journal articles, with four further papers currently being peer reviewed.
To promote dissemination and exploitation, the project team undertook a series of activities to engage policymakers and other stakeholders, including a submission for the Global Stocktake, a series of policy papers and a series of policy dialogues, including a large final conference in Brussels with the sister project 4i-Traction. In addition, all results were published on the project website and disseminated via social media and regular project newsletters. Modelling results were included in the online platform I2AM Paris to facilitate their further use.
The Sectoral Conversations were implemented with slight adjustments due to sector-specific circumstances as reported in the first periodic report. Key challenges and achievements of each Sectoral Conversation are reported in the cross-sectoral synthesis in D1.2. Overall, we find that the Sectoral Conversations approach was successful in promoting dialogue and mutual learning, leading to the identification of key challenges and opportunities for decarbonisation in each sector.
Two international bunker fuel models, for the maritime and aviation sectors, were developed and used to assess the potential contribution of the sectors to meet deep decarbonization goals, including the Paris Agreement objectives and the IMO goals. Results were reported in D2.1 and a scientific journal article.
Using two leading Integrated Assessment Models (GCAM and PROMETHEUS), the project developed enhanced global mitigation pathways including the latest national climate policies (including the effects from the recent energy crisis), NDCs and long-term targets as reported in D2.3 and three peer-reviewed scientific articles. In addition, the project assessed the implications of these new mitigation pathways for the Sustainable Development Goals as reported in D2.4.
The project developed sectoral mitigation pathways and benchmarks for key sectoral mitigation options or bundles of options, including globally traded direct reduced iron, light electric vehicles, alternative routes for the transformation of the EU building sector, and constraints of the mitigation potential of AFOLU. Results are reported in D3.1 D3.2 eight policy papers and several peer-reviewed articles.
The project analysed the determinants of ambition in updated NDCs and risk factors for successful implementation of NDCs. Results were reported in D4.1 and D4.2 one peer-reviewed article already published and one currently under peer review.
The project analysed mitigation drivers and barriers and policy options in the four target sectors in the 20 target countries, covering at least two sectors for each country. Results are reported in D4.3 and D4.4 one peer-reviewed article already published and one in the peer-review process.
The project developed sectoral deep dives and enhanced national mitigation pathways for all its target countries. Results are reported in D5.1 (data tables) and D5.2 (country fiches). The work on Tier-1 countries included engagements with relevant national stakeholders to ensure the relevance of the research.
The project mapped the global climate governance landscape for its four target sectors, and in addition assessed the potential of climate clubs, supply-side climate policy, and the Global Stocktake. This work identified governance gaps and developed recommendations on how to address those gaps to further strengthen the global enabling environment for sectoral transformations. Results are reported in D6.1 - D6.4 and in seven peer-reviewed journal articles, with four further papers currently being peer reviewed.
To promote dissemination and exploitation, the project team undertook a series of activities to engage policymakers and other stakeholders, including a submission for the Global Stocktake, a series of policy papers and a series of policy dialogues, including a large final conference in Brussels with the sister project 4i-Traction. In addition, all results were published on the project website and disseminated via social media and regular project newsletters. Modelling results were included in the online platform I2AM Paris to facilitate their further use.
The project systematically analysed transformation challenges and opportunities in the four selected sectors (transport, buildings, energy-intensive industries and AFOLU) both in qualitative and quantitative terms. In quantitative terms, the project improved modelling capabilities both at the global level as well as within the target countries. In qualitative terms, the project assessed policy and governance options to capitalise on transformation drivers and overcome transformation barriers both at national and international levels.
While many results were finished only recently, the project already achieved substantial impact in the scientific community. 27 articles were already published in peer-reviewed journals and further manuscripts are in the pipeline. Some results received particular public attention. For example, the Nature Climate Change article “A climate club to decarbonize the global steel industry” already achieved 32 citations (Web of Science). Similarly, the article "Pathways to an International Agreement to Leave Fossil Fuels in the Ground" in Global Environmental Politics already achieved 29 citations.
Policy impact is less direct and more difficult to measure. The project’s qualitative and quantitative insights provide scientific underpinning for the development of subsequent more ambitious NDCs and long-term low-emission strategies. To promote policy uptake, the team successfully organised a series of policy dialogue and a final conference with UNFCCC negotiators and other external experts to discuss key project results. However, given that the enhanced national pathways were completed only at the end of the project, its impact on future NDC and LEDS development cannot yet be assessed.
While many results were finished only recently, the project already achieved substantial impact in the scientific community. 27 articles were already published in peer-reviewed journals and further manuscripts are in the pipeline. Some results received particular public attention. For example, the Nature Climate Change article “A climate club to decarbonize the global steel industry” already achieved 32 citations (Web of Science). Similarly, the article "Pathways to an International Agreement to Leave Fossil Fuels in the Ground" in Global Environmental Politics already achieved 29 citations.
Policy impact is less direct and more difficult to measure. The project’s qualitative and quantitative insights provide scientific underpinning for the development of subsequent more ambitious NDCs and long-term low-emission strategies. To promote policy uptake, the team successfully organised a series of policy dialogue and a final conference with UNFCCC negotiators and other external experts to discuss key project results. However, given that the enhanced national pathways were completed only at the end of the project, its impact on future NDC and LEDS development cannot yet be assessed.