Skip to main content
Go to the home page of the European Commission (opens in new window)
English English
CORDIS - EU research results
CORDIS
Content archived on 2024-05-30

Complexity and predictability of epidemics: toward a computational infrastructure for epidemic forecasts

Objective

The advantage provided by the increasingly interconnected nature of our world has generated a dangerous by-product: the possibility for rapid worldwide spread of epidemics. The ability to forecast epidemic evolution – as much accurately as we can now do for weather conditions – would be of invaluable help in fighting the emergence or re-emergence of viruses such as SARS, avian influenza, HIV-AIDS, Lyme disease, West Nile virus, or more recently the threat of an influenza pandemic. With the advent of interdisciplinary tools and methods, the latest modeling approaches for the study of the spread and control of infectious diseases witness the emergence of a new area of research – computational epidemiology – that integrates mathematical and statistical epidemiology with computational sciences and informatics tools to conduct scenario analysis in public health domain. While few research groups have begun to use large scale simulations for epidemic modeling, many fundamental theoretical questions are left unanswered. How does the complex nature of real world affect our predictive capabilities in the realm of computational epidemiology? What are the fundamental limits in epidemic evolution predictability with computational modeling? How do they depend on the level of accuracy of our description and knowledge of the state of the system? The present project aims at developing a vigorous research effort along two main directions corresponding to i) the formulation of models for the basic theoretical understanding of multi-scale and agent based approaches and their predictive power; ii) the development of computational approaches and data integration tools that will provide a realistic modeling framework for the analysis of observed epidemic outbreaks and the forecast of patterns of emerging diseases. The ERC Starting Independent Researcher Grant offers an ideal opportunity to start a structured program in this direction, aimed at providing fundamental advances in the field.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: https://op.europa.eu/en/web/eu-vocabularies/euroscivoc.

You need to log in or register to use this function

Keywords

Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)

Topic(s)

Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.

Call for proposal

Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.

ERC-2007-StG
See other projects for this call

Funding Scheme

Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.

ERC-SG - ERC Starting Grant

Host institution

ISTITUTO PER L'INTERSCAMBIO SCIENTIFICO
EU contribution
€ 684 000,00
Address
VIA CHISOLA 5
10126 Torino
Italy

See on map

Region
Nord-Ovest Piemonte Torino
Activity type
Research Organisations
Links
Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

No data

Beneficiaries (1)

My booklet 0 0