Flare Likelihood and Region Eruption Forecasting

Informazioni relative al progetto

FLARECAST

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: 640216

DOI

10.3030/640216

Progetto chiuso

Data della firma CE 7 Novembre 2014

Data di avvio 1 Gennaio 2015

Data di completamento 31 Dicembre 2017

Finanziato da

• INDUSTRIAL LEADERSHIP - Leadership in enabling and industrial technologies – Space

Costo totale

€ 2 416 651,25

Contributo UE

€ 2 416 651,25

Coordinato da

ACADEMY OF ATHENS
Greece

CORDIS fornisce collegamenti ai risultati finali pubblici e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti ORIZZONTE.

I link ai risultati e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti del 7° PQ, così come i link ad alcuni tipi di risultati specifici come dataset e software, sono recuperati dinamicamente da .OpenAIRE .

Risultati finali

Documents, reports (14)

Addition of plug-in system

D4.4 will realize a plug-in mechanism in the FLARECAST framework that will allow users in research and industry to expand and exploit the available prediction services (this plug-in system is a major advancement with respect to the HESPE framework).

Addition of new framework functionality (external data ingestion, user management, validation)

D4.3 will add three more modular components to FLARECAST framework: a module for ingesting data from external sources, a module for user management and a module for running algorithms that validate FLARECAST prediction performances.

Catalogued active region property ingestion algorithm and respective flare association

D2.2 will provide software capable of reading active region properties from a variety of existing catalogues, formatting them and storing them in the FLARECAST database. In addition, it will provide software that associates flares with specific active region property measurements over differing time windows.

Finalised framework

D4.5 will provide the final release of the FLARECAST processing framework, equipped with all functionalities and plug-in system.

Data monitoring software

D5.3 will provide software capable of determining data quality and continuity.

Software framework updated from HESPE functionality

D4.1 will provide the FLARECAST processing framework including the databases, data flows and processing components. Some components will rely on HESPE platform but a general schema redesign will be necessary.

Report on next generation methods for active region property extraction and flare prediction

Report on the tests and validation of next generation algorithms aiming at extracting, from standard observations of active regions, yet unexplored quantities and properties that will improve existing flare prediction scores.

Report on findings and suggestions for future efforts in solar eruption prediction

Redact summary on the state-of-the-art of research about the trigger of solar eruptions and roadmap for advanced predictions.

Improved requirements for flare association and forecasting time windows and latency

Determine optimal forecasting time windows and latency time depending on flare properties.

Finalised flare prediction algorithms

D3.5 will provide a validated and optimized release for each one of the flare prediction algorithms realized in the previous deliverables.

Forecast verification software

D5.1 will provide software capable of calculating numerous forecast verification metrics to enable appropriate comparison of forecast performance between FLARECAST prediction algorithms and also against external prediction methods.

Finalised active region property extraction algorithms, metadata, documentation

D2.4 will provide a validated and optimized release of the earlier first release software with updated descriptive documentation.

Plan for the exploitation and dissemination of the results

A plan for the dissemination and exploitation of project results will be set up listing activities to be carried out during and beyond the duration of the project.

Forecast verification error assessment software

D5.2 will provide software capable of calculating error/uncertainty estimates on the earlier delivered FLARECAST forecast verification metrics.

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (10)

Press and media release (year 2)

At the end of month 24, there will be a press and media release of the project in its maturity phase, including also an outlook about the new directions appearing to be made possible as a result of the project. Emphasis of the release will be placed on the project's achievements so far and the ones anticipated by the project's expiration.

Finalised project web site

Revised site, following feedback, suggestion and recommendations by the community and the Steering Committee.

Finalized outreach material and web site (year 3)

Based on feedback from project partners involved in public outreach and evaluation from online communication with the public, educational material will be updated and new material will be included (movies). The content of the EPO area of the project’s web site will be finalized, making sure that all relevant content be translated into the languages of the project partners. All materials will remain accessible to the public and to future project teams beyond the duration of the project.

Initial education and public outreach web site content

Establishment of a dedicated area for EPO in the project's web site with initial heritage material adapted for FLARECAST from previous projects (e.g., HESPE). Material will then be generated for FLARECST, following the FLARECAST guidelines. Online public comments will be facilitated and collected/evaluated by the Project Management Board in regular intervals.

Press and media release (year 3)

A third and final press and media release will be organized by the project's expiration. The theme of the release will be the project's achievements and projections for the future. The contents of the release will have the approval of both the Project Management Board and the project's Steering Committee.

Organization of second Stakeholders Workshop

A second workshop will be presented by the project's expiration. Its objectives will be to (1) solidify the impact of the project to government decisions on space weather and (2) investigate, on a practical basis, the possibilities for further industrial involvement to the project's final products and the anticipated future possibilities. The underlying theme will be to take best advantage of the project's existence and performance.

Project web site established

Establishment of the main project web site, with public and password-protected (member) areas for exchange of documents and project-related communication.

Education and public outreach material (year 1)

Supporting and following the press release for year 1 of the project, a major update of the project's EPO material will be performed. Materials will be introduced to, and feedback sought from, the project partners at the annual consortium meeting. They will be made available to the public, teachers, science communicators and project partners involved in EPO through the EPO area of the project’s web site. In the case of physical hands-on materials and give away objects, project partners will have the opportunity to order a set for their own institution.

Press and media release (year 1)

At the end of month 12, there will be a press and media release on the progress and initial performance of the project. The release will have the approval of the Project Management Board.

Organization of first Stakeholders Workshop

This will be the project's first effort to establish itself through its achievements in its maturity phase to industry and government, or governmental organizations. The workshop will include scientific achievements and their industrial implications, as well as the results of the raise of awareness of the public via EPO, that will be directed toward officials and government representatives. The spirit of the workshop will be the project's maturity phase and what it brings to stakeholders, with projections for the future.

Demonstrators, pilots, prototypes (2)

Updated prediction database schema

D4.6 will provide the final release of the FLARECAST prediction database schema for the access to products realized by the prediction algorithms.

Initial prediction database schema

D4.2 will provide the first, prototypal version of the database containing the output of the processing step realized by the prediction algorithms.

Open Research Data Pilot (1)

Initial data management plan

Tentative planning for data management, including storage and processing (i.e., data mining).

Pubblicazioni

Peer reviewed articles (10)

A Hybrid Supervised/Unsupervised Machine Learning Approach to Solar Flare Prediction

Autori: Federico Benvenuto, Michele Piana, Cristina Campi, Anna Maria Massone
Pubblicato in: The Astrophysical Journal, Numero 853/1, 2018, Pagina/e 90, ISSN 1538-4357
Editore: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/aaa23c

Flaring Rates and the Evolution of Sunspot Group McIntosh Classifications

Autori: Aoife E. McCloskey, Peter T. Gallagher, D. Shaun Bloomfield
Pubblicato in: Solar Physics, Numero 291/6, 2016, Pagina/e 1711-1738, ISSN 0038-0938
Editore: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s11207-016-0933-y

Non-neutralized Electric Currents in Solar Active Regions and Flare Productivity

Autori: Ioannis Kontogiannis, Manolis K. Georgoulis, Sung-Hong Park, Jordan A. Guerra
Pubblicato in: Solar Physics, Numero 292/11, 2017, ISSN 0038-0938
Editore: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s11207-017-1185-1

A COMPARISON OF FLARE FORECASTING METHODS. I. RESULTS FROM THE “ALL-CLEAR” WORKSHOP

Autori: G. Barnes, K. D. Leka, C. J. Schrijver, T. Colak, R. Qahwaji, O. W. Ashamari, Y. Yuan, J. Zhang, R. T. J. McAteer, D. S. Bloomfield, P. A. Higgins, P. T. Gallagher, D. A. Falconer, M. K. Georgoulis, M. S. Wheatland, C. Balch, T. Dunn, E. L. Wagner
Pubblicato in: The Astrophysical Journal, Numero 829/2, 2016, Pagina/e 89, ISSN 1538-4357
Editore: Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.3847/0004-637X/829/2/89

Relative magnetic helicity as a diagnostic of solar eruptivity

Autori: E. Pariat, J. E. Leake, G. Valori, M. G. Linton, F. P. Zuccarello, K. Dalmasse
Pubblicato in: Astronomy & Astrophysics, Numero 601, 2017, Pagina/e A125, ISSN 0004-6361
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201630043

Testing predictors of eruptivity using parametric flux emergence simulations

Autori: Chloé Guennou, Etienne Pariat, James E. Leake, Nicole Vilmer
Pubblicato in: Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, Numero 7, 2017, Pagina/e A17, ISSN 2115-7251
Editore: EDP Sciences
DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2017015

Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

Autori: S. A. Murray, S. Bingham, M. Sharpe, D. R. Jackson
Pubblicato in: Space Weather, Numero 15/4, 2017, Pagina/e 577-588, ISSN 1542-7390
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1002/2016SW001579

Active Region Photospheric Magnetic Properties Derived from Line-of-Sight and Radial Fields

Autori: J. A. Guerra, S.-H. Park, P. T. Gallagher, I. Kontogiannis, M. K. Georgoulis, D. S. Bloomfield
Pubblicato in: Solar Physics, Numero 293/1, 2018, ISSN 0038-0938
Editore: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s11207-017-1231-z

Forecasting Solar Flares Using Magnetogram-based Predictors and Machine Learning

Autori: Kostas Florios, Ioannis Kontogiannis, Sung-Hong Park, Jordan A. Guerra, Federico Benvenuto, D. Shaun Bloomfield, Manolis K. Georgoulis
Pubblicato in: Solar Physics, Numero 293/2, 2018, ISSN 0038-0938
Editore: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s11207-018-1250-4

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts Issued by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

Autori: M. A. Sharpe, S. A. Murray
Pubblicato in: Space Weather, Numero 15/10, 2017, Pagina/e 1383-1395, ISSN 1542-7390
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1002/2017SW001683

Book chapters (1)

Machine Learning for Solar Flare Forecasting

Autori: Anna Maria Massone, Michele Piana & the FLARECAST Consortium
Pubblicato in: 2018
Editore: Elsevier