Tipping Points in the Earth System

CORDIS fornisce collegamenti ai risultati finali pubblici e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti ORIZZONTE.

I link ai risultati e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti del 7° PQ, così come i link ad alcuni tipi di risultati specifici come dataset e software, sono recuperati dinamicamente da .OpenAIRE .

Risultati finali

Update on state-dependence and spatial patterns of feedbacks

The review report from D.4.1 will be updated.The document will be updated during TiPES and include newly developed metrics of climate response at the end of T4.1 (Task 4.1).

Ice-sheet thresholds and improved sea-level rise projections

Report on paleo-constrained long-term (from centuries to tens of millennia) ice-sheet projections, including the identification of critical thresholds for irreversible melt-back of the ice sheets in terms of global temperature anomaly and CO2 concentration, as well as improved future sea level rise projections (Task 3.5).

State-dependence and spatial patterns of feedbacks

A review report will be compiled during the first year focusing on feedbacks in the climate system that will be addressed by TiPES Feedbacks will include those with an impact on the global mean temperature and those that may exhibit specific spatial patterns Task 41

AMOC thresholds in CMIP7

Report summarizing recent developments to climate models that are likely to impact on their simulation of AMOC thresholds, on the timescale of CMIP7/IPCC AR7 and beyond. Likely model developments include eddy-resolving ocean resolution and improved treatments of dense overflow waters. Expected to include an assessment of the impact of the model developments on the specific early warning indicators developed earlier in TiPES (Task 3.1).

Spatial patterns of the interrelations between different Tipping Elements

A report will be submitted on the spatial interaction patterns between the different tipping elements of the earth system that are evidenced in paleoclimatic records On this basis an assessment of cascading versus stabilizing effects of tippingelement interactions will be delivered Task 13

Impact report

Linked to Task 8.3.

Evaluation of tipping phenomena in models of climate tipping elements across scales

Climate models on different scales can show bifurcations inducing tipping. We are going to study stochastic reduction techniques to link the tipping events in model classes and examples across scales (Task 5.1).

Impact assessment in European vulnerable regional climates

Assessment report summarising the impacts of crossing TPs on a range of Europe-relevant climate properties such as the statistics of atmospheric blocking and weather regimes, using state-of-the-art climate models. TPs include significant melting of the European Alpine glaciers or the Greenland ice sheet, and a slowdown and potential collapse of the AMOC. Specific emphasis is put on significant changes in terms of precipitation and temperature extremes, as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCDDI). Drought- and agricultural-impact models in worst case scenarios will be used to assess damages for society.

Mid-term report from scientific Advisory Board

Linked to Task 82

Rare-event algorithm for tracing Tipping Point

The result of implementing the rare-event algorithm in different models in the model hierarchy focused on specific TPs (AMOC and DO-events) will be reported. The aim is to assess the model dependence in quantitative predictions of TPs (Task 2.3).

Review of communication plan made in D7.1

Linked to Task 7.1.

New metrics for safe operating spaces and predictability for climate in the presence of tipping points

A review report will provide an overview of newly developed metrics for the climate sensitivity that incorporate the effect of TPs being passed. Focus will be on TEs that directly affect global mean temperature, as well as on spatial patterns of temperature change. The report will feed into informing the IPCC AR7 process (Task 4.2).

Tipping point report

A review report will be compiled during the first year derived from an expert public meeting focusing on tipping points that are addressed in TiPES It will form the basis for the first policy briefs and fact sheets produced by TiPES The document will be updated during TiPES M30 Task 72

Indian summer monsoon projections under regional and global forcings

Assessment report of the future Indian summer monsoon response to regional and global forcing scenarios based on a hierarchy of climate models This will include the definition of safe operating spaces excluding future dangerous conditions in the hydroclimatology of the region Task 33

Ecological and societal impacts of past abrupt transitions

A report will be submitted on the ecological and societal impacts of past transitions of tipping elements, as evidenced in climatic proxy as well as archaeological records. Particular focus will be on the impact of past climate transitions, as e.g. the 8.2 kyr and 4.2 kyr events, on early human societies (Task 1.3).

Report on warm climate stability

Report on warm climate stability in EMICs, ESMs, and ice-sheet models. A review report will be compiled during the first three years, based on both literature review, and new TiPES simulations. It will enable us to contribute towards policy briefs and fact sheets produced by TiPES (Task 2.2).

"Consistent ""tales of future"""

"Consistent ""tales of future"" communicating the possible consequences of optimal decision making, for generalist audience. This document represents the output of Task 6.3, which will further supported by publications submitted to peer-reviewed journals (Task 6.3)."

Review of tipping point report made in D7.1

Linked to Task 7.2.

Mid-term report from scientific Advisory Board II

Linked to Task 8.2.

Physical mechanisms underlying EWSs

Summary report on physical mechanisms responsible for statistical EWSs of all relevant regional TEs, as inferred from the model simulations carried out in WP3. This report will include an assessment of the predictive power of the discovered EWS and related physical precursors (WP3 all Tasks).

Observable EWSs for AMOC collapse, suitable for use in a changing background climate

Report summarising studies with lowdimensional climate models and AOGCMs in which AMOC thresholds are naturally passed or artificially induced while the underlying climate is changing according to plausible IPCC scenarios The work will identify conditions under which the likelihood of tipping is increased early warning indicators and how these conditions depend on the magnitude and rate of underlying climate change Task 31

Communication plan

A communication plan will be developed that identifies the adressees in academia society and decision makers in the partner countries and the lists the communication instruments that the project will utilize at the level of partners workpagages and the project as a whole The plan will be circulated among the project partners and then published on the www and reviewed M30 Task 71

Advanced statistical EWSs prior to past abrupt transitions

A report will be submitted on early-warning signals of abrupt transitions evidences in paleoclimate records. This report will clearly show how we have gone beyond classical indicators, e.g. by focussing on distinct time scales, co-variabilities between different records, and by considering more specific statistical measures (Task 1.4).

Drivers of abrupt shifts in European regional climates

Report assessing the relevance of causal precursors of abrupt transitions in European regional climates, including a risk assessment. A strong focus will be on the Mediterranean region. Rapid transitions in regional climates in high-resolution climate model simulations covering the 20th and 21st century will be identified. Potential precursors include an AMOC collapse, remote influences (e.g. Pacific or Arctic changes) and regional effects derived from vegetation changes and/or changed land-atmosphere feedbacks (Task 3.4).

Non-autonomous tipping, safe operating paths and unsafe excursions

Climate models are subject to non-autonomous driving. We are going to study associated pullback attractors, their role in tipping events and provide associated concepts of safe operating spaces (Task 5.2).

Uncertainty assessment of ice-sheet projections

Uncertainty assessment report of future mid-long term (from centuries to tens of millennia) Antarctic and Greenland ice-sheet evolution. The focus will be on parameters and parameterisations of ice-sheet models that dominate uncertainty in future projections, first using stand-alone ice-sheet models and then shifting to coupled ice-sheet-climate models (Task 3.5).

Development of uncertainty in tipping point systems

This deliverable provides the scientific basis supporting the formulation and specification the of the sequential decision problem, based on the domain-specific language (Task 6.2). It will actually consist of the compilation of articles submitted in the course of the tasks, with supporting code available open access as a git library. We therefore consider more efficient to report this progress as one formal deliverable, as this scientific output will, anyway, be processed all along and made publicly available through the usual peer-reviewed channels (Task 6.2, 6.3).

Likelihood and impacts of Amazon tipping to savanna state

Report providing a risk assessment of a tipping of the South American Monsoon System to a savannah state due to global-warming-induced precipitation changes, on the one hand, and widespread deforestation, on the other hand. These risks will be assessed using a hierarchy of models with dynamical atmosphere-vegetation coupling. Cumulative risk assessment induced by both factors will be included, as well as an assessment of the associated impacts (Task 3.2).

TiPES Outcome Briefs

For stakeholders in partner countries and policymakers briefs and fact sheets will be written for specific events such as professional conferences and UNFCCC COPs (Task 7.3).

Evaluation of EWS techniques: extensions beyond equilibria as well as for network systems

Early-warning signs have been focused on steady-state solutions in differential equations, yet our understanding will be improved for network systems as well as for other invariants sets. In these cases we are going to evaluate the impact of topology and invariant set structure (Task 5.3).

Domain-specific-language with basic notions about Tipping Points

With annotations examples of usage and relations and implementation in Idris It will be provided as a report containing the dictionary of notions formalised such as being compatible with computer language Idris or similar supported by a code library The report intends to function as a draft for a publication which can be circulated among partners for further feedback Task 61

Setup internal communication

Website launch with public part for outreach and internal part for communication among partners and transparent consortium administration, setup appropriate software solution for webinars, make plan for delegating seminar planning and appointment of organizers and moderators. Webside will be continuous developed throughout the project lifetime (Task 8.4).

TiPES website

A website will be created by the project management. It will contain material for all addressees identified in the communication plan. A special focus will be on scientific material, briefs, and fact sheets addressed at policymakers. The website will also host publications and data for public use (Task 7.3)

D1.1: Open-access proxy data repository of tipping elements in past climates

We will provide a publically available online data repository containing available proxy records that evidence the temporal behavior of tipping elements in past climates. This repository will be accessible from the TiPES website, and linked with existing repositories such as Pangaea. The most accurate age models will be published alongside the respective records, and wherever possible, marker-based synchronizations between the different records will be provided (Task 1.1).

Public engagement event

TiPES will contribute side events at a UNFCCC COP meeting or a similar international high profile events toward the end in order to communicate with high impact the findings relevant for Climate Change policies (Task 7.4).

Data management plan
Data management plan evaluation II

Linked to Task 8.3.

Data management plan evaluation

Linked to Task 83

Final version of the game

D7.6: Final version of the game (OTH, M36, Task 7.6). Digital game to engage with the public: A digital game for computers and other allocated platforms will be developed with the focus on facilitating tipping points to the general public (ages 12+) in an engaging manner. The game will focus on re-playability, allowing audiences to experiment with and evaluate the causes and effects of their own actions in regards to climate change and tipping points. Fabula will finalize the development of the game and release the game on appropriate platforms. The game will be made available in english and will be available to play for free in all EU countries.

Statistical toolbox to analyse tipping elements in proxy records

A statistical toolbox, written in the programming language Python, will be published on the open-access code platform GitHub, and linked to the TiPES website. This toolbox will allow to analyse records of tipping elements in past climates in terms of time series on common, absolute time scales, whilst keeping track of the associated uncertainties (Task 1.2).

Software: computational tools for identifying, classifying and predicting tipping

Computational benchmark studies for tipping events occur in several aspects of the project. Here we link the software and development efforts to provide extensions to currently available scientific computing approaches to tipping points (Task 5.3).

Course on functional languages and to dependently typed languages

The course will be delivered by N. Botta at UCL after the recruitment is finalised. It takes the form of seminars with either slide or syllabus support (Task 6.1).

Software implementation of new ice core and marine core relevant code

Software implementation of new ice core and marine core relevant code in UKESM1 to enable testing against water isotope measurements (UBristol). This deliverable will produce new (Fortran) code for the UKESM model. It will be made available to UKESM community once it has been fully tested (Task 2.1).

Modelling protocol for DO events for CMIP-PMIP

We will write suggested DO-modelling protocol, and liaise with CMIP-PMIP steering committee, to put appropriate protocol on the CMIP-PMIP website. This protocol will be published in a peer reviewed paper (T2.1).

Software package for linear response operators in climate models

A software package will be developed to construct linear response operators in different climate models. Based on our analysis of various models of intermediate to more sophisticated complexity (PlaSIM, Bern3D, HadCM3, EC-Earth, CESM) we will make available the analysis tools for extracting the linear response operator from climate models (Task 4.1).

Pubblicazioni

Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project

Autori: Laura C. Jackson, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Helmuth Haak, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Warren Lee, Virna L. Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw
Pubblicato in: Geosci. Model Dev., Numero 6, 2023, Pagina/e 1975–1995, ISSN 1991-959X
Editore: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023

Internal multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated by EC-Earth3

Autori: Virna L. Meccia, Ramón Fuentes-Franco, Paolo Davini, Katinka Bellomo, Federico Fabiano, Shuting Yang and Jost von Hardenberg
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 14320894, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Editore: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06534-4

Adaptive voter model on simplicial complexes.

Autori: Christian Kuehn; Leonhard Horstmeyer
Pubblicato in: Phys. Rev. E, Numero 22, 2019, ISSN 1536-6065
Editore: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.101.022305

Climate impacts of a substantial weakening of the AMOC over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model

Autori: Katinka Bellomo, Virna L. Meccia, Roberta D’Agostino, Federico Fabiano, Sarah M. Larson, Jost von Hardenberg & Susanna Corti
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Editore: Copenicus
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2

Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3

Autori: Federico Fabiano, Paolo Davini, Virna Meccia, Giuseppe Zappa, Alessio Bellucci, Valerio Lembo, Katinka Bellomo, and Susanna Corti
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero [accepted], 2023, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2023-15

An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

Autori: Thomas Westerhold, Norbert Marwan, Anna Joy Drury, Diederik Liebrand, Claudia Agnini, Eleni Anagnostou, James S. K. Barnet, Steven M. Bohaty, David De Vleeschouwer, Fabio Florindo, Thomas Frederichs, David A. Hodell, Ann E. Holbourn, Dick Kroon, Vittoria Lauretano, Kate Littler, Lucas J. Lourens, Mitchell Lyle, Heiko Pälike, Ursula Röhl, Jun Tian, Roy H. Wilkens, Paul A. Wilson, James C. Zachos
Pubblicato in: Science, Numero 369/6509, 2020, Pagina/e 1383-1387, ISSN 0036-8075
Editore: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.aba6853

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Autori: Peter D. Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 14, 2023, Pagina/e 4254, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w

Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system

Autori: Niklas Boers, Michael Ghil and Thomas F Stocker
Pubblicato in: Environ. Res. Lett., Numero 17, 9, 2022, Pagina/e 093006, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944

The coupled ice sheet-Earth system model Bern3D v3. 0

Autori: Frerk Pöppelmeier, Fortunat Joos, and Thomas F. Stocker
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, 2023, Pagina/e 1-39, ISSN 0894-8755
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0104.1

Robustness of competing climatic states

Autori: Ragon, Charline; Lembo, Valerio; Lucarini, Valerio; Vérard, Christian; Kasparian, Jérôme; Brunetti, Maura
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Numero 35(7), 2022, Pagina/e 1-59, ISSN 1520-0442
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0148.1

Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation impacts on water isotope records during the Last Interglacial

Autori: Sentia Goursaud, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, Eric Wolff, Paul Valdes, Eric J. Steig, Andrew Pauling
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091412

Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling

Autori: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, Martin Rypdal
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 11/2, 2020, Pagina/e 329-345, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-329-2020

Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Autori: Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Numero 11/12, 2021, ISSN 1758-6798
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4

Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers

Autori: Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numero 3, 2022, Pagina/e 1037–1062, ISSN 2698-4016
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022

Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss

Autori: Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schröeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Erica Rosenblum, Mark Ringer, Jeff Ridley, Danny Feltham, Cecilia Bitz, Eric J. Steig, Eric Wolff, Julienne Stroeve, Alistair Sellar
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Numero 10/10, 2020, Pagina/e 928-932, ISSN 1758-678X
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0865-2

Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping

Autori: Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., & Blasco, J
Pubblicato in: Scientific Reports, Numero 13, 2023, Pagina/e 2104, ISSN 2045-2322
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28771-1

Response and Sensitivity Using Markov Chains

Autori: Manuel Santos Gutiérrez, Valerio Lucarini
Pubblicato in: Journal of Statistical Physics, Numero 179/5-6, 2020, Pagina/e 1572-1593, ISSN 0022-4715
Editore: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10955-020-02504-4

East Greenland ice core dust record reveals timing of Greenland ice sheet advance and retreat

Autori: Paul Vallelonga; Aslak Grinsted; Alejandra Borunda; Alejandra Borunda; Steven L. Goldstein; Steven L. Goldstein; Thomas Blunier; Marius Simonsen; Mai Winstrup; Diana Vladimirova; Helle Astrid Kjær; Bo M Vinther; Gisela Winckler; Gisela Winckler; Barbara Delmonte; Robert Frei; Anders Svensson; Giovanni Baccolo; Todd Sowers
Pubblicato in: Nature communications, Numero 30, 2019, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12546-2

Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018

Autori: Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Pubblicato in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Numero 116/48, 2019, Pagina/e 23942-23946, ISSN 0027-8424
Editore: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1912277116

Reconstructing complex system dynamics from time series: a method comparison

Autori: Forough Hassanibesheli, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths
Pubblicato in: New Journal of Physics, Numero 22/7, 2020, Pagina/e 073053, ISSN 1367-2630
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ab9ce5

Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland

Autori: Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 14.3, 2023, Pagina/e 593-607, ISSN 2190-4979
Editore: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-593-2023

Elliptic and Parabolic Boundary Value Problems in Weighted Function Spaces

Autori: Hummel, Felix; Lindemulder, Nick
Pubblicato in: Potential Analysis, Numero 52, 2021, ISSN 1572-929X
Editore: Springer Nature B.V.
DOI: 10.1007/s11118-021-09929-w

Resilience of dynamical systems

Autori: Hana Krakovská, Christian Kuehn and Iacopo P. Longo
Pubblicato in: European Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2023, Pagina/e 1-46, ISSN 1469-4425
Editore: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/s0956792523000141

Canadian forest fires, Icelandic volcanoes and increased local dust observed in six shallow Greenland firn cores

Autori: Helle Astrid Kjær, Patrick Zens, Samuel Black, Kasper Holst Lund, Anders Svensson, and Paul Vallelonga
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past, Numero 18149324, 2022, Pagina/e 2211-2230, ISSN 1814-9324
Editore: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-2211-2022

Stabilization of cyclic processes by slowly varying forcing

Autori: J. Newman; M. Lucas; A. Stefanovska
Pubblicato in: Chaos, Numero 31(12), 2021, ISSN 1089-7682
Editore: American Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0066641

Quasipotentials for coupled escape problems and the gate-height bifurcation

Autori: Peter Ashwin; Jennifer Creaser; Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova
Pubblicato in: Crossref, Numero 24, 2023, ISSN 0031-9007
Editore: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.107.014213

Main controls on the stable carbon isotope composition of speleothems

Autori: Jens Fohlmeister, Ny Riavo G. Voarintsoa, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Meighan Boyd, Susanne Brandtstätter, Matthew J. Jacobson, Jessica L. Oster
Pubblicato in: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, Numero 279, 2020, Pagina/e 67-87, ISSN 0016-7037
Editore: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.gca.2020.03.042

Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world

Autori: Robbin Bastiaansen, Henk A Dijkstra, Anna S von der Heydt
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research letters, Numero 17 (4), 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a8

Simulating the Laurentide Ice Sheet of the Last Glacial Maximum

Autori: Daniel Moreno-Parada, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Javier Blasco, Marisa Montoya, & Alexander Robinson
Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere, Numero 17, 2023, Pagina/e 2139–2156, ISSN 1994-0424
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023

A new mathematical framework for atmospheric blocking events

Autori: Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 54/1-2, 2020, Pagina/e 575-598, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05018-2

Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records

Autori: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers,Martin Wibe Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Climate of the past, Numero 18, 6, 2022, Pagina/e 1275-1294, ISSN 1814-9332
Editore: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022

An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Autori: Catrin Ciemer, Lars Rehm, Jürgen Kurths, Reik V Donner, Ricarda Winkelmann, Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 15/9, 2020, Pagina/e 094087, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9cff

Towards neural Earth system modelling by integrating artificial intelligence in Earth system science

Autori: Christopher Irrgang; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Elizabeth A. Barnes; Christopher Kadow; Joanna Staneva; Jan Saynisch-Wagner
Pubblicato in: Nature Machine Intelligence, Numero 3, 2021, ISSN 2522-5839
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s42256-021-00374-3

Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

Autori: Ben-Yami, Maya ; Skiba, Vanessa ; Bathiany, Sebastian ; Boers, Niklas
Pubblicato in: Nature communications, Numero 14, 2023, Pagina/e 8344, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44046-9

On the correctness of monadic backward induction

Autori: Brede, Nuria; Botta, Nicola
Pubblicato in: Journal of Functional Programming, Numero 31, 2021, ISSN 1469-7653
Editore: online
DOI: 10.1017/s0956796821000228

Significance of uncertain phasing between the onsets of stadial–interstadial transitions in different Greenland ice core proxies

Autori: Keno Riechers Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Climate of the past, 2021, ISSN 1814-9332
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021

Climate-induced speleothem radiocarbon variability on Socotra Island from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Younger Dryas

Autori: Steffen Therre, Jens Fohlmeister, Dominik Fleitmann, Albert Matter, Stephen J. Burns, Jennifer Arps, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Ronny Friedrich, Norbert Frank
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past, Numero 16/1, 2020, Pagina/e 409-421, ISSN 1814-9332
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-409-2020

Fingerprints for Early Detection of Changes in the AMOC

Autori: L. C. Jackson, R. A. Wood
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Numero 33/16, 2020, Pagina/e 7027-7044, ISSN 0894-8755
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0034.1

Differentiable programming for Earth system modeling

Autori: Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Numero 16,11, 2023, Pagina/e 3123–3135, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023

Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models

Autori: Jonathan A. Baker, Michael J. Bell, Laura C. Jackson, Richard Renshaw, Geoffrey K. Vallis, Andrew J. Watson, Richard A. Wood
Pubblicato in: geophysical Research Letters, Numero 50, 14, 2023, Pagina/e e2023GL103381, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl103381

Neural partial differential equations for chaotic systems

Autori: Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Juergen Kurths; Juergen Kurths
Pubblicato in: New Journal of Physics, Numero 12, 2021, ISSN 1367-2630
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.17169/refubium-30839

Resilient Antarctic monsoonal climate prevented ice growth during the Eocene

Autori: Michiel Baatsen, Peter Bijl, Anna von der Heydt, Appy Sluijs, and Henk Dijkstra
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past, Numero 20,1, 2024, Pagina/e 77-90, ISSN 1814-9332
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/cp-20-77-2024

Lévy noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced transitions in the Ghil–Sellers energy balance model

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Glacial Abrupt Climate Change as a Multiscale Phenomenon Resulting from Monostable Excitable Dynamics

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Rough basin boundaries in high dimension: Can we classify them experimentally?

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Event synchrony measures for functional climate network analysis: A case study on South American rainfall dynamics

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Analysis of a bistable climate toy model with physics-based machine learning methods

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Chameleon attractors in turbulent flows

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Extreme cold events in Europe under a reduced AMOC

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Sample Paths Estimates for Stochastic Fast-Slow Systems Driven by Fractional Brownian Motion

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Limited Retreat of the Wilkes Basin Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial

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Can we use linear response theory to assess geoengineering strategies?

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Asymptotic behavior of the forecast–assimilation process with unstable dynamics

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Existence and influence of mixed states in a model of vegetation patterns

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Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Temperature Responses Informed by CMIP6

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The physics of climate variability and climate change

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Dansgaard–Oeschger-like events of the penultimate climate cycle: the loess point of view

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Changes in Local and Global Climate Feedbacks in the Absence of Interactive Clouds: Southern Ocean–Climate Interactions in Two Intermediate-Complexity Models

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Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

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A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions

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Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6 models

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Empirical evidence for recent global declines in vegetation resilience

Autori: Taylor Smith, Dominik Traxl and Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Numero 12, 2022, Pagina/e 477-484, ISSN 1758-678X
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
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Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean

Autori: Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, Dim Coumou
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 11/3, 2020, Pagina/e 793-805, ISSN 2190-4987
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Heterogeneity of the attractor of the Lorenz ’96 model: Lyapunov analysis, unstable periodic orbits, and shadowing properties

Autori: Chiara Cecilia Maiocchi, Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun, Yuzuru Sato
Pubblicato in: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Numero 457, 2024, Pagina/e 133970, ISSN 0167-2789
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A Random Dynamical Systems Perspective on Isochronicity for Stochastic Oscillations

Autori: Maximilian Engel; Christian Kuehn
Pubblicato in: Communications in Mathematical Physics, Numero 386, 2021, ISSN 1432-0916
Editore: Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany
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Neodymium isotopes as a paleo-water mass tracer: A model-data reassessment

Autori: Frerk Pöppelmeier; Jörg Lippold; Patrick Blaser; Marcus Gutjahr; Martin Frank; Thomas F. Stocker
Pubblicato in: Quaternary Science Review, Numero 279, 2022, ISSN 0277-3791
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Holocene climate forcings and lacustrine regime shifts in the Indian summer monsoon realm

Autori: Sushma Prasad, Norbert Marwan, Deniz Eroglu, Bedartha Goswami, Praveen K. Mishra, Birgit Gaye, A. Anoop, N. Basavaiah, Martina Stebich, Arshid Jehangir
Pubblicato in: Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2020, ISSN 0197-9337
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Random attractors via pathwise mild solutions for stochastic parabolic evolution equations

Autori: Christian Kuehn; Alexandra Neamţu; Stefanie Sonner
Pubblicato in: Journal of Evolution Equations, Numero 21, 2021, Pagina/e 2631–2663, ISSN 1424-3202
Editore: Springer Nature Switzerland AG
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Impacts of the PMIP4 ice sheets on Northern Hemisphere climate during the last glacial period

Autori: Kenji Izumi, Paul Valdes, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire
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Decomposing the dynamics of the Lorenz 1963 model using unstable periodic orbits: Averages, transitions, and quasi-invariant sets

Autori: Chiara Cecilia Maiocchi, Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun,
Pubblicato in: AIP Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Numero 32, 033129, 2022, ISSN 1054-1500
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Sensitivity of the tropical dust cycle to glacial abrupt climate changes

Autori: Hopcroft, P. O., Pichat, S., Valdes, P. J., & Kienast, S. S
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 50.1, 2023, ISSN 0094-8276
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Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record

Autori: Anna S. von der Heydt, Peter Ashwin, Charles D. Camp, Michel Crucifix, Henk A. Dijkstra, Peter Ditlevsen, Timothy M. Lenton
Pubblicato in: Global and Planetary Change, Numero 197, 2021, Pagina/e 103399, ISSN 0921-8181
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SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise

Autori: Marina Martínez Montero, Michel Crucifix, Victor Couplet, Nuria Brede, and Nicola Botta
Pubblicato in: Geosci. Model Dev., Numero 19919603, 2022, Pagina/e 8059-8084, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: Copernicus
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Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial–interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

Autori: Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 14, 6, 2023, Pagina/e 1277–1294, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
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Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points

Autori: Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt
Pubblicato in: Journal of Statistical Physics, Numero 179/5-6, 2020, Pagina/e 1531-1552, ISSN 0022-4715
Editore: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
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Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise

Autori: J. Sutter, A. Jones, T. L. Frölicher, C. Wirths & T. F. Stocker
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
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Detection of abrupt changes in East Asian monsoon from Chinese loess and speleothem records

Autori: Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski, Youbin Sun
Pubblicato in: Global and Planetary Change, Numero 227, 2023, Pagina/e 104154, ISSN 0921-8181
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The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation

Autori: Nils Bochow and Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: science advances, Numero 9 (40), 2023, ISSN 2375-2548
Editore: Science Advances
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Slow manifolds for infinite-dimensional evolution equations

Autori: Felix Hummel and Chrsitian Kuehn
Pubblicato in: Commentarii Mathematici Helvetici, Numero 14208946, 2022, Pagina/e 61-132, ISSN 1420-8946
Editore: Swiss Mathematical Society
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Predictors and predictands of linear response in spatially extended systems

Autori: Umberto Maria Tomasini, Valerio Lucarini
Pubblicato in: The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 2021, ISSN 1951-6355
Editore: EDP Sciences
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Model-Data Comparison of Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Extent and Southern Ocean Sea-Surface Temperatures During Marine Isotope Stage 5e

Autori: M. Chadwick, L. C. Sime, C. S. Allen, M.-V. Guarino
Pubblicato in: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Numero 38, 6, 2023, Pagina/e e2022PA004600, ISSN 2572-4525
Editore: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Global stability properties of the climate: Melancholia states, invariant measures, and phase transitions

Autori: Valerio Lucarini, Tamás Bódai
Pubblicato in: Nonlinearity, Numero 33/9, 2020, Pagina/e R59-R92, ISSN 0951-7715
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
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Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction

Autori: Simon L. L. Michel, Didier Swingedouw, Pablo Ortega, Guillaume Gastineau, Juliette Mignot, Gerard McCarthy, Myriam Khodri
Pubblicato in: Nature communications, Numero 5176, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
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Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model.

Autori: Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lembo; Francesco Ragone
Pubblicato in: Scientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2020), Numero 18, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
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Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation

Autori: Johannes Lohmann; Henk A. Dijkstra; Markus Jochum; Valerio Lucarini; Peter D. Ditlevsen
Pubblicato in: SCIENCE ADVANCES, Numero 10, 12, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Editore: American Association for the Advancement of Science
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Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol

Autori: Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past, Numero 19, 2023, Pagina/e 915–942, ISSN 1814-9324
Editore: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates

Autori: Witold Bagniewski, Michael Ghil & Denis-Didier Rousseau
Pubblicato in: Sci Rep, Numero 13, 2023, Pagina/e 4472, ISSN 2045-2322
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
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Reconstructing Historical Climate Fields With Deep Learning

Autori: Nils Bochow, Anna Poltronieri, Martin Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.18348

A Minimal Endogenous Business Cycle Model with Memory Effects

Autori: Daniel Ohara and Michael Ghil
Pubblicato in: Macroeconomics: Prices, Business Fluctuations, & Cycles eJournal, 2023
Editore: SSRN
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3959179

Persistent synchronization of heterogeneous networks with time-dependent linear diffusive coupling

Autori: Jardón-Kojakhmetov, Hildeberto ; Kuehn, Christian ; Longo, Iacopo P.
Pubblicato in: ArXiv, Numero [prerint], 2023
Editore: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2305.05747

Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time- and state-dependent noise

Autori: Andreas Morr, Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: ArXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.16773

Tipping Point Detection and Early-Warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Autori: Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Josh E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Pubblicato in: EGUSphere, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1773

Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Kolmogorov Modes, and Nonlinear Fingerprints

Autori: Valerio Lucarini, Mickaël Chekroun
Pubblicato in: arXiV, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2212.02628

The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Autori: Christian Wirths, Johannes Sutter, and Thomas Stocker
Pubblicato in: EGUsphere, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2233

Red noise in continuous-time stochastic modelling

Autori: Andreas Morr, Dörte Kreher, Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: arXiv, 2022
Editore: Cornell university
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2212.03566

Spatial correlation increase in single-sensor satellite data reveals loss of Amazon rainforest resilience

Autori: Lana L. Blaschke, Da Nian, Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Taylor Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.18540

The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined

Autori: John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past discussions, Numero [in review], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Editore: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496

Description and validation of the ice sheet model Nix v1.0

Autori: Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Pubblicato in: EGUSphere, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2690

Types, equations, dimensions and the Pi theorem

Autori: Nicola Botta, Patrik Jansson, Guilherme Horta Alvares Da Silva
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Cornell university
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.09481

Rainfall Seasonality Dominates Critical Precipitation Threshold for the Amazon Forest in the Lpjml Vegetation Model

Autori: NIAN, DA and Bathiany, Sebastian and Sakschewski, Boris and Drüke, Markus and Blaschke, Lana and Ben-Yami, Maya and von Bloh, Werner and Boers, Niklas
Pubblicato in: SSRN, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: SSRN
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4658035

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Autori: Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Pubblicato in: Erath system Dynamics, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Copenicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589

A strategy to compute convective timescales of the Indian monsoon with the WRF model

Autori: Lucy G. Recchia, Valerio Lucarini
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: ArXiV
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.15871

Saddle avoidance of noise-induced transitions in multiscale systems

Autori: Reyk Börner, Ryan Deeley, Raphael Römer, Tobias Grafke, Valerio Lucarini, Ulrike Feudel
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.10231

Crossing planetary boundaries could lead to Hothouse Earth

Autori: Erik Chavez, Michael Ghil, Jan Rombouts
Pubblicato in: https://www.researchsquare.com/, Numero [preprint], 2024
Editore: https://www.researchsquare.com/
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3870378/v1

Detection of approaching critical transitions in natural systems driven by red noise

Autori: Andreas Morr and Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: arXiv, 2023
Editore: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.05587

Internal noise interference in anticipation of tipping points of generic multi-dimensional dynamical systems

Autori: Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers and Peter Ashwin
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.18597

Arctic summer sea ice loss will accelerate in coming decades

Autori: Anna Poltronieri, Nils Bochow, Niklas Boers, Per Kristen Jakobsen, and Martin Rypdal
Pubblicato in: Research Square [preprint], 2022
Editore: Research Square
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2112530/v1

Bayesian analysis of early warning signals using a time-dependent model

Autori: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Luc Hallali, and Martin Rypdal
Pubblicato in: EGUsphere [preprint], 2024
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-436

Dimensional analysis identifies contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions

Autori: Tommaso Alberti, Fabio Florindo, Eelco J. Rohling, Valerio Lucarini, Davide Faranda
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: ArXiV
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2309.12693

Agnostic detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere: from blockings to teleconnections

Autori: Sebastian Springer, Vera Melinda Galfi, Alessandro Laio, Valerio Lucarini
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2309.06833

Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations

Autori: Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Pubblicato in: EGUsphere, 2024
Editore: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2863

Climate sensitivity, commitment and abrupt change: toward an ontology for climate tipping point research

Autori: Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Marina Martínez Montero
Pubblicato in: 2022
Editore: TiPES
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6820683

Winter Euro-Atlantic blocking activity less sensitive to climate change than previously evaluated

Autori: Simon L. L. Michel, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra
Pubblicato in: ESS Open Archive, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Authorea.com
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.168839598.85584521/v1

Decoupling of δ18O from surface temperature in Antarctica in an ensemble of Historical simulations

Autori: Sentia Oger, Louise Sime, and Max Holloway
Pubblicato in: EGUsphere, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2735

Deep learning reconstruction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strength validates ongoig twenty-first century decline

Autori: Simon Michel, Henk Dijkstra, Francesco Guardamagna, Valérian Jacques-Dumas, René van Westen, Anna von der Heydt
Pubblicato in: Research Square, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: https://www.researchsquare.com/
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A DSL for Monadic Decision Problems, Responsibility under Uncertainty and Tipping Point Notions

Autori: Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Martínez Montero, Marina
Pubblicato in: 2022
Editore: TiPES
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6820605

On the periodicity of free oscillations for a finite ice column

Autori: Daniel Moreno, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], Numero in review, 2022, ISSN 1994-0440
Editore: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/tc-2022-97

Antarctic Tipping points triggered by the mid-Pliocene warm climate

Autori: Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya
Pubblicato in: Climateof the Past Discussions, Numero [preprint], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Editore: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-2023-76

Looking to the (far) future of climate projection.

Autori: Chris A. Boulton
Pubblicato in: Global Change Biology, Numero 7, 2022, ISSN 1354-1013
Editore: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15936

A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impact-Low Likelihood Climate Risks

Autori: Richard A. Wood, Michel Crucifix, Timothy M. Lenton, Katharine J. Mach, Crystal Moore, Mark New, Simon Sharpe, Thomas F. Stocker, Rowan T. Sutton
Pubblicato in: Erath's Future, Numero 11, 4, 2023, Pagina/e e2022EF003369, ISSN 2328-4277
Editore: John Wiley & Sons
DOI: 10.1029/2022ef003369

Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model

Autori: Mehling, Oliver, Reyk Börner, and Valerio Lucarini
Pubblicato in: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Numero 134043, 2023, ISSN 0167-2789
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2023.134043

Can the Miocene climate inform the future?

Autori: Anna von der Heydt
Pubblicato in: Science, Numero 377, 6601, 2022, Pagina/e 26-27, ISSN 0036-8075
Editore: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.abq6542

Climate, zoonosis, and interdisciplinarity

Autori: Michael Ghil
Pubblicato in: PNAS, Numero 120 (39), 2023, Pagina/e e2311575120, ISSN 0027-8424
Editore: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2311575120

Bifurcation Analysis of Systems With Delays: Methods and Their Use in Applications

Autori: Bernd Krauskopf and Jan Sieber
Pubblicato in: Controlling Delayed Dynamics. CISM International Centre for Mechanical Sciences, Numero vol 604., 2022, ISBN 978-3-031-01129-0
Editore: Springer, Cham.
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-01129-0_7

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Nonautonomous Dynamical Systems, and the Climate Sciences

Autori: Michael Ghil, Eric Simonnet
Pubblicato in: Mathematical Approach to Climate Change and its Impacts - MAC2I, Numero 38, 2020, Pagina/e 3-81, ISBN 978-3-030-38668-9
Editore: Springer International Publishing
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-38669-6_1

Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology-Biosphere Modeling: A Dynamic and Stochastic Approach

Autori: Ogutu, K.B.Z., D’Andrea, F., Groth, A., Ghil, M
Pubblicato in: Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, 2022, Pagina/e 225-287, ISBN 978-3-030-72579-2
Editore: Springer, Cham
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-72579-2_103

An ice-core perspective

Autori: Sune Olander Rasmussen
Pubblicato in: Abrupt Climate Change, Numero 1, 2020, ISBN 978-87-93604-86-5
Editore: Strandberg publishing

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