DOWN2EARTH: Translation of climate information into multilevel decision support for social adaptation, policy development, and resilience to water scarcity in the Horn of Africa Drylands

Informations projet

DOWN2EARTH

N° de convention de subvention: 869550

DOI

10.3030/869550

Projet clôturé

Date de signature de la CE 20 Avril 2020

Date de début 1 Septembre 2020

Date de fin 28 Février 2025

Financé au titre de

• SOCIETAL CHALLENGES - Climate action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials

Coût total

€ 6 645 663,50

Contribution de l’UE

€ 6 645 663,50

Coordonné par

CARDIFF UNIVERSITY
United Kingdom

CORDIS fournit des liens vers les livrables publics et les publications des projets HORIZON.

Les liens vers les livrables et les publications des projets du 7e PC, ainsi que les liens vers certains types de résultats spécifiques tels que les jeux de données et les logiciels, sont récupérés dynamiquement sur OpenAIRE .

Livrables

Demonstrators, pilots, prototypes (7)

WajihaCast mobile phone app for water/food forecasts to end-users (Task 3.4)

See Part A

Communication and Dissemination Plan (Task 6.1)

See Part A

Training workshops for ICPAC staff on CUWALID (Task 4.2)

See Part A

Inclusion of CUWALID-based forecasts in GHACOF, IFRAH, and FEWS NET (Task 4.3)

See Part A

Regional extension workshops on WajihaCast and climate change (Task 4.2)

See Part A

Technical workshops on CUWALID for stakeholders (Task 4.2)

See Part A

Regional and international policy engagement workshops (Task 4.4)

See Part A

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (3)

Increased capacity to produce media content on climate adaptation (Kenya) (Task 4.1)

See Part A

Project videos/pamphlets (Task 6.1)

See Part A

Project website (Task 6.1)

See Part A

Open Research Data Pilot (1)

Data Management Plan (Task 5.1)

See Part A

Other (1)

Expanded climate/water data networks throughout HAD (Task 4.3)

See Part A

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (38)

Predicting Food‐Security Crises in the Horn of Africa Using Machine Learning

Auteurs: Tim Busker, Bart van den Hurk, Hans de Moel, Marc van den Homberg, Chiem van Straaten, Rhoda A. Odongo, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Publié dans: Earth's Future, Numéro 12, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Éditeur: AGU
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef004211

The uncertain role of rising atmospheric CO2 on global plant transpiration

Auteurs: Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano; Diego G. Miralles; Nate McDowell; Tim Brodribb; Fernando Domínguez-Castro; Ruby Leung; Akash Koppa
Publié dans: Earth-Science Reviews, Numéro 2, 2022, ISSN 1872-6828
Éditeur: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104055

Characterizing the Response of Vegetation Cover to Water Limitation in Africa Using Geostationary Satellites

Auteurs: Çağlar Küçük; Sujan Koirala; Nuno Carvalhais; Diego G. Miralles; Markus Reichstein; Martin Jung
Publié dans: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numéro 2, 2022, ISSN 1942-2466
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021ms002730

Drivers of Subseasonal Forecast Errors of the East African Short Rains

Auteurs: E. W. Kolstad, D. MacLeod, T. D. Demissie
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 48/14, 2021, Page(s) e2021GL093292, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093292

A deep learning-based hybrid model of global terrestrial evaporation

Auteurs: Akash Koppa, Dominik Rains, Petra Hulsman, Rafael Poyatos & Diego G. Miralles
Publié dans: Nature Communications, Numéro 13, 2022, Page(s) 1912, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29543-7

Integrating Behavioral Theories in Agent-Based Models for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessments

Auteurs: Teun Schrieks, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Marthe Wens, Toon Haer and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Publié dans: Frontiers in Water, Numéro 3, 2021, Page(s) 686329, ISSN 2624-9375
Éditeur: Frontiers Media
DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2021.686329

A Lagrangian Analysis of the Sources of Rainfall Over the Horn of Africa Drylands

Auteurs: Akash Koppa; Jessica Keune; Dave A. MacLeod; Michael Singer; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno; Katerina Michaelides; Rafael Rosolem; George Otieno; Abebe Tadege; Diego G. Miralles
Publié dans: JGR Atmospheres, Numéro 2, 2023, ISSN 2169-8996
Éditeur: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
DOI: 10.1029/2022jd038408

Drought impacts and community adaptation: Perspectives on the 2020–2023 drought in East Africa

Auteurs: Rhoda A. Odongo, Teun Schrieks, Ileen Streefkerk, Hans de Moel, Tim Busker, Toon Haer, David MacLeod, Katerina Michaelides, Michael Singer, Mohammed Assen, George Otieno, Anne F. Van Loon
Publié dans: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Numéro 119, 2025, Page(s) 105309, ISSN 2212-4209
Éditeur: Elsevier Limited
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105309

Seasonal prediction of Horn of Africa long rains using machine learning: The pitfalls of preselecting correlated predictors

Auteurs: Victoria M. H. Deman; Akash Koppa; Willem Waegeman; David A. MacLeod; Michael Bliss Singer; Diego G. Miralles
Publié dans: FRONTIERS IN WATER, Numéro 1, 2022, ISSN 2624-9375
Éditeur: Frontiers Media
DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2022.1053020

stoPET v1.0: A stochastic potential evapotranspiration generator for simulation of climate change impacts

Auteurs: Asfaw, Dagmawi Teklu; Singer, Michael Bliss; Rosolem, Rafael; MacLeod, David; Cuthbert, Mark; Miguitama, Edisson Quichimbo; Gaona, Manuel F. Rios; Michaelides, Katerina
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 21, 2023, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-557-2023

Climate hazards are threatening vulnerable migrants in Indian megacities

Auteurs: Vittal Hari, Suman Dharmasthala, Akash Koppa, Subhankar Karmakar, Rohini Kumar
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, Numéro 11, 2021, Page(s) 636–638, ISSN 1758-6798
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01105-7

The Contribution of Transpiration to Precipitation Over African Watersheds

Auteurs: S. A. Te Wierik, J. Keune, D. G. Miralles, J. Gupta, Y. A. Artzy-Randrup, L. Gimeno, R. Nieto, L. H. Cammeraat
Publié dans: Water Resources Research, 2022, ISSN 1944-7973
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021wr031721

Sustained Water Storage in Horn of Africa Drylands Dominated by Seasonal Rainfall Extremes

Auteurs: Markus Adloff; Michael Bliss Singer; David A. MacLeod; Katerina Michaelides; Nooshin Mehrnegar; Eleanor Hansford; Chris Funk; Daniel Mitchell
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 6, 2022, ISSN 1944-8007
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099299

STORM v.2: A simple, stochastic rainfall model for exploring the impacts of climate and climate change at and near the land surface in gauged watersheds

Auteurs: Manuel F. Rios Gaona, Katerina Michaelides, Michael Bliss Singer
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 17, 2025, Page(s) 5387-5412, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-5387-2024

Locally Defined Seasonal Rainfall Characteristics within the Horn of Africa Drylands from Rain Gauge Observations

Auteurs: Katherine Cocking, Michael Bliss Singer, David MacLeod, Mark O. Cuthbert, Rafael Rosolem, Flavian Muthusi, Paolo Paron, Joyce Kimutai, Phillip Omondi, Ahmed Mohamed Hassan, Asaminew Teshome, Katerina Michaelides
Publié dans: Journal of Hydrometeorology, Numéro 25, 2024, Page(s) 1845-1861, ISSN 1525-755X
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-23-0228.1

Playing the long game: Anticipatory action based on seasonal forecasts

Auteurs: David MacLeod, Dominic R. Kniveton, Martin C. Todd
Publié dans: Climate Risk Management, Numéro 34, 2021, Page(s) 100375, ISSN 2212-0963
Éditeur: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375

Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices

Auteurs: Rhoda A. Odongo; Hans De Moel; Anne F. Van Loon
Publié dans: EGU Sphere, Numéro 1, 2022, ISSN 1680-7359
Éditeur: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2022-1307

A unified framework to estimate the origins of atmospheric moisture and heat using Lagrangian models

Auteurs: Keune, Jessica; Schumacher, Dominik L.; Miralles, Diego G.
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 1, 2022, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-1875-2022

Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes to Unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole Events

Auteurs: David MacLeod, Erik W. Kolstad, Katerina Michaelides, Michael Bliss Singer
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 51, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl105258

A holistic framework to estimate the origins of atmospheric moisture and heat using a Lagrangian model

Auteurs: Jessica Keune; Dominik L. Schumacher; Diego G. Miralles
Publié dans: eISSN: 1991-9603, Numéro 3, 2022, Page(s) 1875–1898, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2021-180

Beyond the regional average: Drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains

Auteurs: Erik W. Kolstad, Douglas J. Parker, David A. MacLeod, Caroline M. Wainwright, Linda C. Hirons
Publié dans: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Numéro 150, 2024, Page(s) 4550-4566, ISSN 0035-9009
Éditeur: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4829

Climate services for the Greater Horn of Africa: interviews exploring practitioner perspectives from Kenya and beyond

Auteurs: Jacob M. Rigby; Michaelina Almaz Yohannis; Chris Preist; Michael Bliss Singer; Timothy M. Waema; Agnes N. Wausi; Katerina Michaelides
Publié dans: Climate and Development, Numéro 13, 2022, ISSN 1756-5529
Éditeur: Taylor and Francis Inc.
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2022.2074350

STORM v.2: A simple, stochastic decision-support tool for exploring the impacts of climate and climate change at, and near the land surface in gauged watersheds

Auteurs: Manuel Felipe Rios Gaona; Katerina Michaelides; Michael Bliss Singer
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 1, 2023, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2023-98

Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Auteurs: Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Rub
Publié dans: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numéro 24, 2024, Page(s) 3173-3205, ISSN 1684-9981
Éditeur: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024

Incorporating Plant Access to Groundwater in Existing Global, Satellite-Based Evaporation Estimates

Auteurs: P. Hulsman, J. Keune, A. Koppa, J. Schellekens, D. G. Miralles
Publié dans: Water Resources Research, 2023, ISSN 1944-7973
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022wr033731

A coupled agent-based model to analyse human-drought feedbacks for agropastoralists in dryland regions

Auteurs: Ileen N. Streefkerk; Jens de Bruijn; Toon Haer; Anne F. Van Loon; Edisson A. Quichimbo; Marthe Wens; Khalid Hassaballah; Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Publié dans: Frontiers in Water, Numéro 2, 2023, ISSN 2624-9375
Éditeur: Frontiers Media
DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2022.1037971

Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts

Auteurs: Tim Busker, Hans de Moel, Bart van den Hurk, Jeroen Aerts
Publié dans: Science of the Total Environment, 2023, ISSN 1879-1026
Éditeur: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165506

Translating seasonal climate forecasts into water balance forecasts for decision making

Auteurs: David MacLeod; Edisson A. Quichimbo; Katerina Michaelides; Dagmawi Teklu Asfaw; Rafael Rosolem; Mark O. Cuthbert; Erick Otenyo; Zewdu Segele; Jacob M. Rigby; George Otieno; Khalid Hassaballah; Abebe Tadege; Michael Bliss Singer
Publié dans: PLOS Climate, Numéro 20, 2023, ISSN 2767-3200
Éditeur: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000138

Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1° resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present

Auteurs: Michael Bliss Singer, Dagmawi Teklu Asfaw, Rafael Rosolem, Mark O. Cuthbert, Diego G. Miralles, David MacLeod, Edisson Andres Quichimbo & Katerina Michaelides
Publié dans: Nature, Numéro 8, 2021, Page(s) 224, ISSN 1476-4687
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-021-01003-9

Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains

Auteurs: Erik W. Kolstad; Dave MacLeod
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, Numéro 1, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Éditeur: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06176-6

Reversed Holocene temperature–moisture relationship in the Horn of Africa

Auteurs: A. J. Baxter, D. Verschuren, F. Peterse, D. G. Miralles, C. M. Martin-Jones, A. Maitituerdi, T. Van der Meeren, M. Van Daele, C. S. Lane, G. H. Haug, D. O. Olago, J. S. Sinninghe Damsté
Publié dans: Nature, Numéro 620, 2023, Page(s) 336-343, ISSN 0028-0836
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06272-5

DRYP 1.0: a parsimonious hydrological model of DRYland Partitioning of the water balance

Auteurs: E. Andrés Quichimbo, Michael Bliss Singer, Katerina Michaelides, Daniel E. J. Hobley, Rafael Rosolem, Mark O. Cuthbert
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 14/11, 2021, Page(s) 6893-6917, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-6893-2021

Budyko-Based Long-Term Water and Energy Balance Closure in Global Watersheds From Earth Observations

Auteurs: Akash Koppa, Sarfaraz Alam, Diego G. Miralles, Mekonnen Gebremichael
Publié dans: Water Resources Research, Numéro 57, 2021, Page(s) e2020WR028658, ISSN 1944-7973
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2020wr028658

Assessing the sensitivity of modelled water partitioning to global precipitation datasets in a data‐scarce dryland region

Auteurs: E. A. Quichimbo, M. B. Singer, K. Michaelides, R. Rosolem, D. A. MacLeod, D.T. Asfaw, M. O. Cuthbert
Publié dans: Hydrological Processes, Numéro 37, 2024, ISSN 0885-6087
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.15047

Observation-based assessment of secondary water effects on seasonal vegetation decay across Africa

Auteurs: Çağlar Küçük, Sujan Koirala, Nuno Carvalhais, Diego G. Miralles, Markus Reichstein, Martin Jung
Publié dans: Frontiers in Big Data, 2022, ISSN 2624-909X
Éditeur: Frontiers Media
DOI: 10.3389/fdata.2022.967477

Drought risk attitudes in pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Kenya

Auteurs: Teun Schrieks, W.J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts
Publié dans: Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Numéro 108, 2024, Page(s) 102143, ISSN 2214-8043
Éditeur: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2023.102143

Assessing key behavioural theories of drought risk adaptation: Evidence from rural Kenya

Auteurs: Teun Schrieks, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Oliver V. Wasonga, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Publié dans: Risk Analysis, 2023, ISSN 1539-6924
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/risa.14266

Advances, gaps and way forward in provision of climate services over the Greater Horn of Africa

Auteurs: Masilin Gudoshava, George Otieno, Eunice Koech, Herbert Misiani, Jemimah Gacheru Ongoma, Claudio Heinrich-Mertsching, Calistus Wachana, Hussen Seid Endris, Anthony Mwanthi, Mary Kilavi, Emmah Mwangi, Andrew Colman, Douglas Parker, Joseph Nzau Mutemi, Paula Machio, Paulino Omoj Omay, Paul Ombai, Doreen Anande, Alfred Kondowe, Isaac Mugume, Prosper Ayabagabo, Houda Youssouf Houssein, Mahado Salah Wa
Publié dans: Frontiers in Climate, Numéro 6, 2024, ISSN 2624-9553
Éditeur: FrontiersIn
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1307535

Conference proceedings (1)

Towards User-Centred Climate Services: the Role of Human-Computer Interaction

Auteurs: Rigby, J. M, Preist, C
Publié dans: CHI '23: Proceedings of the 2023 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, 2023, ISBN 978-1-4503-9421-5
Éditeur: Association for Computing Machinery
DOI: 10.1145/3544548.3580663