DOWN2EARTH: Translation of climate information into multilevel decision support for social adaptation, policy development, and resilience to water scarcity in the Horn of Africa Drylands

Project Information

DOWN2EARTH

Grant agreement ID: 869550

DOI

10.3030/869550

Project closed

EC signature date 20 April 2020

Start date 1 September 2020

End date 28 February 2025

Funded under

• SOCIETAL CHALLENGES - Climate action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials

Total cost

€ 6 645 663,50

EU contribution

€ 6 645 663,50

Coordinated by

CARDIFF UNIVERSITY
United Kingdom

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Deliverables

Demonstrators, pilots, prototypes (7)

WajihaCast mobile phone app for water/food forecasts to end-users (Task 3.4)

See Part A

Communication and Dissemination Plan (Task 6.1)

See Part A

Training workshops for ICPAC staff on CUWALID (Task 4.2)

See Part A

Inclusion of CUWALID-based forecasts in GHACOF, IFRAH, and FEWS NET (Task 4.3)

See Part A

Regional extension workshops on WajihaCast and climate change (Task 4.2)

See Part A

Technical workshops on CUWALID for stakeholders (Task 4.2)

See Part A

Regional and international policy engagement workshops (Task 4.4)

See Part A

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (3)

Increased capacity to produce media content on climate adaptation (Kenya) (Task 4.1)

See Part A

Project videos/pamphlets (Task 6.1)

See Part A

Project website (Task 6.1)

See Part A

Open Research Data Pilot (1)

Data Management Plan (Task 5.1)

See Part A

Other (1)

Expanded climate/water data networks throughout HAD (Task 4.3)

See Part A

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (38)

Predicting Food‐Security Crises in the Horn of Africa Using Machine Learning

Author(s): Tim Busker, Bart van den Hurk, Hans de Moel, Marc van den Homberg, Chiem van Straaten, Rhoda A. Odongo, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 12, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: AGU
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef004211

The uncertain role of rising atmospheric CO2 on global plant transpiration

Author(s): Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano; Diego G. Miralles; Nate McDowell; Tim Brodribb; Fernando Domínguez-Castro; Ruby Leung; Akash Koppa
Published in: Earth-Science Reviews, Issue 2, 2022, ISSN 1872-6828
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104055

Characterizing the Response of Vegetation Cover to Water Limitation in Africa Using Geostationary Satellites

Author(s): Çağlar Küçük; Sujan Koirala; Nuno Carvalhais; Diego G. Miralles; Markus Reichstein; Martin Jung
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Issue 2, 2022, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021ms002730

Drivers of Subseasonal Forecast Errors of the East African Short Rains

Author(s): E. W. Kolstad, D. MacLeod, T. D. Demissie
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48/14, 2021, Page(s) e2021GL093292, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093292

A deep learning-based hybrid model of global terrestrial evaporation

Author(s): Akash Koppa, Dominik Rains, Petra Hulsman, Rafael Poyatos & Diego G. Miralles
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 13, 2022, Page(s) 1912, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29543-7

Integrating Behavioral Theories in Agent-Based Models for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessments

Author(s): Teun Schrieks, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Marthe Wens, Toon Haer and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Published in: Frontiers in Water, Issue 3, 2021, Page(s) 686329, ISSN 2624-9375
Publisher: Frontiers Media
DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2021.686329

A Lagrangian Analysis of the Sources of Rainfall Over the Horn of Africa Drylands

Author(s): Akash Koppa; Jessica Keune; Dave A. MacLeod; Michael Singer; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno; Katerina Michaelides; Rafael Rosolem; George Otieno; Abebe Tadege; Diego G. Miralles
Published in: JGR Atmospheres, Issue 2, 2023, ISSN 2169-8996
Publisher: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
DOI: 10.1029/2022jd038408

Drought impacts and community adaptation: Perspectives on the 2020–2023 drought in East Africa

Author(s): Rhoda A. Odongo, Teun Schrieks, Ileen Streefkerk, Hans de Moel, Tim Busker, Toon Haer, David MacLeod, Katerina Michaelides, Michael Singer, Mohammed Assen, George Otieno, Anne F. Van Loon
Published in: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Issue 119, 2025, Page(s) 105309, ISSN 2212-4209
Publisher: Elsevier Limited
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105309

Seasonal prediction of Horn of Africa long rains using machine learning: The pitfalls of preselecting correlated predictors

Author(s): Victoria M. H. Deman; Akash Koppa; Willem Waegeman; David A. MacLeod; Michael Bliss Singer; Diego G. Miralles
Published in: FRONTIERS IN WATER, Issue 1, 2022, ISSN 2624-9375
Publisher: Frontiers Media
DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2022.1053020

stoPET v1.0: A stochastic potential evapotranspiration generator for simulation of climate change impacts

Author(s): Asfaw, Dagmawi Teklu; Singer, Michael Bliss; Rosolem, Rafael; MacLeod, David; Cuthbert, Mark; Miguitama, Edisson Quichimbo; Gaona, Manuel F. Rios; Michaelides, Katerina
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 21, 2023, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-557-2023

Climate hazards are threatening vulnerable migrants in Indian megacities

Author(s): Vittal Hari, Suman Dharmasthala, Akash Koppa, Subhankar Karmakar, Rohini Kumar
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 11, 2021, Page(s) 636–638, ISSN 1758-6798
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01105-7

The Contribution of Transpiration to Precipitation Over African Watersheds

Author(s): S. A. Te Wierik, J. Keune, D. G. Miralles, J. Gupta, Y. A. Artzy-Randrup, L. Gimeno, R. Nieto, L. H. Cammeraat
Published in: Water Resources Research, 2022, ISSN 1944-7973
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021wr031721

Sustained Water Storage in Horn of Africa Drylands Dominated by Seasonal Rainfall Extremes

Author(s): Markus Adloff; Michael Bliss Singer; David A. MacLeod; Katerina Michaelides; Nooshin Mehrnegar; Eleanor Hansford; Chris Funk; Daniel Mitchell
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 6, 2022, ISSN 1944-8007
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099299

STORM v.2: A simple, stochastic rainfall model for exploring the impacts of climate and climate change at and near the land surface in gauged watersheds

Author(s): Manuel F. Rios Gaona, Katerina Michaelides, Michael Bliss Singer
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 17, 2025, Page(s) 5387-5412, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-5387-2024

Locally Defined Seasonal Rainfall Characteristics within the Horn of Africa Drylands from Rain Gauge Observations

Author(s): Katherine Cocking, Michael Bliss Singer, David MacLeod, Mark O. Cuthbert, Rafael Rosolem, Flavian Muthusi, Paolo Paron, Joyce Kimutai, Phillip Omondi, Ahmed Mohamed Hassan, Asaminew Teshome, Katerina Michaelides
Published in: Journal of Hydrometeorology, Issue 25, 2024, Page(s) 1845-1861, ISSN 1525-755X
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-23-0228.1

Playing the long game: Anticipatory action based on seasonal forecasts

Author(s): David MacLeod, Dominic R. Kniveton, Martin C. Todd
Published in: Climate Risk Management, Issue 34, 2021, Page(s) 100375, ISSN 2212-0963
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375

Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices

Author(s): Rhoda A. Odongo; Hans De Moel; Anne F. Van Loon
Published in: EGU Sphere, Issue 1, 2022, ISSN 1680-7359
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2022-1307

A unified framework to estimate the origins of atmospheric moisture and heat using Lagrangian models

Author(s): Keune, Jessica; Schumacher, Dominik L.; Miralles, Diego G.
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 1, 2022, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-1875-2022

Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes to Unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole Events

Author(s): David MacLeod, Erik W. Kolstad, Katerina Michaelides, Michael Bliss Singer
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 51, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl105258

A holistic framework to estimate the origins of atmospheric moisture and heat using a Lagrangian model

Author(s): Jessica Keune; Dominik L. Schumacher; Diego G. Miralles
Published in: eISSN: 1991-9603, Issue 3, 2022, Page(s) 1875–1898, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2021-180

Beyond the regional average: Drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains

Author(s): Erik W. Kolstad, Douglas J. Parker, David A. MacLeod, Caroline M. Wainwright, Linda C. Hirons
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Issue 150, 2024, Page(s) 4550-4566, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4829

Climate services for the Greater Horn of Africa: interviews exploring practitioner perspectives from Kenya and beyond

Author(s): Jacob M. Rigby; Michaelina Almaz Yohannis; Chris Preist; Michael Bliss Singer; Timothy M. Waema; Agnes N. Wausi; Katerina Michaelides
Published in: Climate and Development, Issue 13, 2022, ISSN 1756-5529
Publisher: Taylor and Francis Inc.
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2022.2074350

STORM v.2: A simple, stochastic decision-support tool for exploring the impacts of climate and climate change at, and near the land surface in gauged watersheds

Author(s): Manuel Felipe Rios Gaona; Katerina Michaelides; Michael Bliss Singer
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 1, 2023, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2023-98

Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Author(s): Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Rub
Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Issue 24, 2024, Page(s) 3173-3205, ISSN 1684-9981
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024

Incorporating Plant Access to Groundwater in Existing Global, Satellite-Based Evaporation Estimates

Author(s): P. Hulsman, J. Keune, A. Koppa, J. Schellekens, D. G. Miralles
Published in: Water Resources Research, 2023, ISSN 1944-7973
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022wr033731

A coupled agent-based model to analyse human-drought feedbacks for agropastoralists in dryland regions

Author(s): Ileen N. Streefkerk; Jens de Bruijn; Toon Haer; Anne F. Van Loon; Edisson A. Quichimbo; Marthe Wens; Khalid Hassaballah; Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Published in: Frontiers in Water, Issue 2, 2023, ISSN 2624-9375
Publisher: Frontiers Media
DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2022.1037971

Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts

Author(s): Tim Busker, Hans de Moel, Bart van den Hurk, Jeroen Aerts
Published in: Science of the Total Environment, 2023, ISSN 1879-1026
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165506

Translating seasonal climate forecasts into water balance forecasts for decision making

Author(s): David MacLeod; Edisson A. Quichimbo; Katerina Michaelides; Dagmawi Teklu Asfaw; Rafael Rosolem; Mark O. Cuthbert; Erick Otenyo; Zewdu Segele; Jacob M. Rigby; George Otieno; Khalid Hassaballah; Abebe Tadege; Michael Bliss Singer
Published in: PLOS Climate, Issue 20, 2023, ISSN 2767-3200
Publisher: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000138

Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1° resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present

Author(s): Michael Bliss Singer, Dagmawi Teklu Asfaw, Rafael Rosolem, Mark O. Cuthbert, Diego G. Miralles, David MacLeod, Edisson Andres Quichimbo & Katerina Michaelides
Published in: Nature, Issue 8, 2021, Page(s) 224, ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-021-01003-9

Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains

Author(s): Erik W. Kolstad; Dave MacLeod
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 1, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06176-6

Reversed Holocene temperature–moisture relationship in the Horn of Africa

Author(s): A. J. Baxter, D. Verschuren, F. Peterse, D. G. Miralles, C. M. Martin-Jones, A. Maitituerdi, T. Van der Meeren, M. Van Daele, C. S. Lane, G. H. Haug, D. O. Olago, J. S. Sinninghe Damsté
Published in: Nature, Issue 620, 2023, Page(s) 336-343, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06272-5

DRYP 1.0: a parsimonious hydrological model of DRYland Partitioning of the water balance

Author(s): E. Andrés Quichimbo, Michael Bliss Singer, Katerina Michaelides, Daniel E. J. Hobley, Rafael Rosolem, Mark O. Cuthbert
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 14/11, 2021, Page(s) 6893-6917, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-6893-2021

Budyko-Based Long-Term Water and Energy Balance Closure in Global Watersheds From Earth Observations

Author(s): Akash Koppa, Sarfaraz Alam, Diego G. Miralles, Mekonnen Gebremichael
Published in: Water Resources Research, Issue 57, 2021, Page(s) e2020WR028658, ISSN 1944-7973
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2020wr028658

Assessing the sensitivity of modelled water partitioning to global precipitation datasets in a data‐scarce dryland region

Author(s): E. A. Quichimbo, M. B. Singer, K. Michaelides, R. Rosolem, D. A. MacLeod, D.T. Asfaw, M. O. Cuthbert
Published in: Hydrological Processes, Issue 37, 2024, ISSN 0885-6087
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.15047

Observation-based assessment of secondary water effects on seasonal vegetation decay across Africa

Author(s): Çağlar Küçük, Sujan Koirala, Nuno Carvalhais, Diego G. Miralles, Markus Reichstein, Martin Jung
Published in: Frontiers in Big Data, 2022, ISSN 2624-909X
Publisher: Frontiers Media
DOI: 10.3389/fdata.2022.967477

Drought risk attitudes in pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Kenya

Author(s): Teun Schrieks, W.J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts
Published in: Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Issue 108, 2024, Page(s) 102143, ISSN 2214-8043
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2023.102143

Assessing key behavioural theories of drought risk adaptation: Evidence from rural Kenya

Author(s): Teun Schrieks, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Oliver V. Wasonga, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Published in: Risk Analysis, 2023, ISSN 1539-6924
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/risa.14266

Advances, gaps and way forward in provision of climate services over the Greater Horn of Africa

Author(s): Masilin Gudoshava, George Otieno, Eunice Koech, Herbert Misiani, Jemimah Gacheru Ongoma, Claudio Heinrich-Mertsching, Calistus Wachana, Hussen Seid Endris, Anthony Mwanthi, Mary Kilavi, Emmah Mwangi, Andrew Colman, Douglas Parker, Joseph Nzau Mutemi, Paula Machio, Paulino Omoj Omay, Paul Ombai, Doreen Anande, Alfred Kondowe, Isaac Mugume, Prosper Ayabagabo, Houda Youssouf Houssein, Mahado Salah Wa
Published in: Frontiers in Climate, Issue 6, 2024, ISSN 2624-9553
Publisher: FrontiersIn
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1307535

Conference proceedings (1)

Towards User-Centred Climate Services: the Role of Human-Computer Interaction

Author(s): Rigby, J. M, Preist, C
Published in: CHI '23: Proceedings of the 2023 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, 2023, ISBN 978-1-4503-9421-5
Publisher: Association for Computing Machinery
DOI: 10.1145/3544548.3580663