DOWN2EARTH: Translation of climate information into multilevel decision support for social adaptation, policy development, and resilience to water scarcity in the Horn of Africa Drylands

Información del proyecto

DOWN2EARTH

Identificador del acuerdo de subvención: 869550

DOI

10.3030/869550

Proyecto cerrado

Fecha de la firma de la CE 20 Abril 2020

Fecha de inicio 1 Septiembre 2020

Fecha de finalización 28 Febrero 2025

Financiado con arreglo a

• SOCIETAL CHALLENGES - Climate action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials

Coste total

€ 6 645 663,50

Aportación de la UE

€ 6 645 663,50

Coordinado por

CARDIFF UNIVERSITY
United Kingdom

CORDIS proporciona enlaces a los documentos públicos y las publicaciones de los proyectos de los programas marco HORIZONTE.

Los enlaces a los documentos y las publicaciones de los proyectos del Séptimo Programa Marco, así como los enlaces a algunos tipos de resultados específicos, como conjuntos de datos y «software», se obtienen dinámicamente de OpenAIRE .

Resultado final

Demonstrators, pilots, prototypes (7)

WajihaCast mobile phone app for water/food forecasts to end-users (Task 3.4)

See Part A

Communication and Dissemination Plan (Task 6.1)

See Part A

Training workshops for ICPAC staff on CUWALID (Task 4.2)

See Part A

Inclusion of CUWALID-based forecasts in GHACOF, IFRAH, and FEWS NET (Task 4.3)

See Part A

Regional extension workshops on WajihaCast and climate change (Task 4.2)

See Part A

Technical workshops on CUWALID for stakeholders (Task 4.2)

See Part A

Regional and international policy engagement workshops (Task 4.4)

See Part A

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (3)

Increased capacity to produce media content on climate adaptation (Kenya) (Task 4.1)

See Part A

Project videos/pamphlets (Task 6.1)

See Part A

Project website (Task 6.1)

See Part A

Open Research Data Pilot (1)

Data Management Plan (Task 5.1)

See Part A

Other (1)

Expanded climate/water data networks throughout HAD (Task 4.3)

See Part A

Publicaciones

Peer reviewed articles (38)

Predicting Food‐Security Crises in the Horn of Africa Using Machine Learning

Autores: Tim Busker, Bart van den Hurk, Hans de Moel, Marc van den Homberg, Chiem van Straaten, Rhoda A. Odongo, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Publicado en: Earth's Future, Edición 12, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Editor: AGU
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef004211

The uncertain role of rising atmospheric CO2 on global plant transpiration

Autores: Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano; Diego G. Miralles; Nate McDowell; Tim Brodribb; Fernando Domínguez-Castro; Ruby Leung; Akash Koppa
Publicado en: Earth-Science Reviews, Edición 2, 2022, ISSN 1872-6828
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104055

Characterizing the Response of Vegetation Cover to Water Limitation in Africa Using Geostationary Satellites

Autores: Çağlar Küçük; Sujan Koirala; Nuno Carvalhais; Diego G. Miralles; Markus Reichstein; Martin Jung
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Edición 2, 2022, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021ms002730

Drivers of Subseasonal Forecast Errors of the East African Short Rains

Autores: E. W. Kolstad, D. MacLeod, T. D. Demissie
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 48/14, 2021, Página(s) e2021GL093292, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093292

A deep learning-based hybrid model of global terrestrial evaporation

Autores: Akash Koppa, Dominik Rains, Petra Hulsman, Rafael Poyatos & Diego G. Miralles
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 13, 2022, Página(s) 1912, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29543-7

Integrating Behavioral Theories in Agent-Based Models for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessments

Autores: Teun Schrieks, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Marthe Wens, Toon Haer and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Publicado en: Frontiers in Water, Edición 3, 2021, Página(s) 686329, ISSN 2624-9375
Editor: Frontiers Media
DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2021.686329

A Lagrangian Analysis of the Sources of Rainfall Over the Horn of Africa Drylands

Autores: Akash Koppa; Jessica Keune; Dave A. MacLeod; Michael Singer; Raquel Nieto; Luis Gimeno; Katerina Michaelides; Rafael Rosolem; George Otieno; Abebe Tadege; Diego G. Miralles
Publicado en: JGR Atmospheres, Edición 2, 2023, ISSN 2169-8996
Editor: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
DOI: 10.1029/2022jd038408

Drought impacts and community adaptation: Perspectives on the 2020–2023 drought in East Africa

Autores: Rhoda A. Odongo, Teun Schrieks, Ileen Streefkerk, Hans de Moel, Tim Busker, Toon Haer, David MacLeod, Katerina Michaelides, Michael Singer, Mohammed Assen, George Otieno, Anne F. Van Loon
Publicado en: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Edición 119, 2025, Página(s) 105309, ISSN 2212-4209
Editor: Elsevier Limited
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105309

Seasonal prediction of Horn of Africa long rains using machine learning: The pitfalls of preselecting correlated predictors

Autores: Victoria M. H. Deman; Akash Koppa; Willem Waegeman; David A. MacLeod; Michael Bliss Singer; Diego G. Miralles
Publicado en: FRONTIERS IN WATER, Edición 1, 2022, ISSN 2624-9375
Editor: Frontiers Media
DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2022.1053020

stoPET v1.0: A stochastic potential evapotranspiration generator for simulation of climate change impacts

Autores: Asfaw, Dagmawi Teklu; Singer, Michael Bliss; Rosolem, Rafael; MacLeod, David; Cuthbert, Mark; Miguitama, Edisson Quichimbo; Gaona, Manuel F. Rios; Michaelides, Katerina
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición 21, 2023, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-557-2023

Climate hazards are threatening vulnerable migrants in Indian megacities

Autores: Vittal Hari, Suman Dharmasthala, Akash Koppa, Subhankar Karmakar, Rohini Kumar
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición 11, 2021, Página(s) 636–638, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01105-7

The Contribution of Transpiration to Precipitation Over African Watersheds

Autores: S. A. Te Wierik, J. Keune, D. G. Miralles, J. Gupta, Y. A. Artzy-Randrup, L. Gimeno, R. Nieto, L. H. Cammeraat
Publicado en: Water Resources Research, 2022, ISSN 1944-7973
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021wr031721

Sustained Water Storage in Horn of Africa Drylands Dominated by Seasonal Rainfall Extremes

Autores: Markus Adloff; Michael Bliss Singer; David A. MacLeod; Katerina Michaelides; Nooshin Mehrnegar; Eleanor Hansford; Chris Funk; Daniel Mitchell
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 6, 2022, ISSN 1944-8007
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099299

STORM v.2: A simple, stochastic rainfall model for exploring the impacts of climate and climate change at and near the land surface in gauged watersheds

Autores: Manuel F. Rios Gaona, Katerina Michaelides, Michael Bliss Singer
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición 17, 2025, Página(s) 5387-5412, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-5387-2024

Locally Defined Seasonal Rainfall Characteristics within the Horn of Africa Drylands from Rain Gauge Observations

Autores: Katherine Cocking, Michael Bliss Singer, David MacLeod, Mark O. Cuthbert, Rafael Rosolem, Flavian Muthusi, Paolo Paron, Joyce Kimutai, Phillip Omondi, Ahmed Mohamed Hassan, Asaminew Teshome, Katerina Michaelides
Publicado en: Journal of Hydrometeorology, Edición 25, 2024, Página(s) 1845-1861, ISSN 1525-755X
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-23-0228.1

Playing the long game: Anticipatory action based on seasonal forecasts

Autores: David MacLeod, Dominic R. Kniveton, Martin C. Todd
Publicado en: Climate Risk Management, Edición 34, 2021, Página(s) 100375, ISSN 2212-0963
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375

Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices

Autores: Rhoda A. Odongo; Hans De Moel; Anne F. Van Loon
Publicado en: EGU Sphere, Edición 1, 2022, ISSN 1680-7359
Editor: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2022-1307

A unified framework to estimate the origins of atmospheric moisture and heat using Lagrangian models

Autores: Keune, Jessica; Schumacher, Dominik L.; Miralles, Diego G.
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición 1, 2022, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-1875-2022

Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes to Unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole Events

Autores: David MacLeod, Erik W. Kolstad, Katerina Michaelides, Michael Bliss Singer
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 51, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl105258

A holistic framework to estimate the origins of atmospheric moisture and heat using a Lagrangian model

Autores: Jessica Keune; Dominik L. Schumacher; Diego G. Miralles
Publicado en: eISSN: 1991-9603, Edición 3, 2022, Página(s) 1875–1898, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2021-180

Beyond the regional average: Drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains

Autores: Erik W. Kolstad, Douglas J. Parker, David A. MacLeod, Caroline M. Wainwright, Linda C. Hirons
Publicado en: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Edición 150, 2024, Página(s) 4550-4566, ISSN 0035-9009
Editor: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4829

Climate services for the Greater Horn of Africa: interviews exploring practitioner perspectives from Kenya and beyond

Autores: Jacob M. Rigby; Michaelina Almaz Yohannis; Chris Preist; Michael Bliss Singer; Timothy M. Waema; Agnes N. Wausi; Katerina Michaelides
Publicado en: Climate and Development, Edición 13, 2022, ISSN 1756-5529
Editor: Taylor and Francis Inc.
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2022.2074350

STORM v.2: A simple, stochastic decision-support tool for exploring the impacts of climate and climate change at, and near the land surface in gauged watersheds

Autores: Manuel Felipe Rios Gaona; Katerina Michaelides; Michael Bliss Singer
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición 1, 2023, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2023-98

Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Autores: Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Rub
Publicado en: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Edición 24, 2024, Página(s) 3173-3205, ISSN 1684-9981
Editor: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024

Incorporating Plant Access to Groundwater in Existing Global, Satellite-Based Evaporation Estimates

Autores: P. Hulsman, J. Keune, A. Koppa, J. Schellekens, D. G. Miralles
Publicado en: Water Resources Research, 2023, ISSN 1944-7973
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022wr033731

A coupled agent-based model to analyse human-drought feedbacks for agropastoralists in dryland regions

Autores: Ileen N. Streefkerk; Jens de Bruijn; Toon Haer; Anne F. Van Loon; Edisson A. Quichimbo; Marthe Wens; Khalid Hassaballah; Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Publicado en: Frontiers in Water, Edición 2, 2023, ISSN 2624-9375
Editor: Frontiers Media
DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2022.1037971

Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts

Autores: Tim Busker, Hans de Moel, Bart van den Hurk, Jeroen Aerts
Publicado en: Science of the Total Environment, 2023, ISSN 1879-1026
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165506

Translating seasonal climate forecasts into water balance forecasts for decision making

Autores: David MacLeod; Edisson A. Quichimbo; Katerina Michaelides; Dagmawi Teklu Asfaw; Rafael Rosolem; Mark O. Cuthbert; Erick Otenyo; Zewdu Segele; Jacob M. Rigby; George Otieno; Khalid Hassaballah; Abebe Tadege; Michael Bliss Singer
Publicado en: PLOS Climate, Edición 20, 2023, ISSN 2767-3200
Editor: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000138

Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1° resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present

Autores: Michael Bliss Singer, Dagmawi Teklu Asfaw, Rafael Rosolem, Mark O. Cuthbert, Diego G. Miralles, David MacLeod, Edisson Andres Quichimbo & Katerina Michaelides
Publicado en: Nature, Edición 8, 2021, Página(s) 224, ISSN 1476-4687
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-021-01003-9

Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains

Autores: Erik W. Kolstad; Dave MacLeod
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 1, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Editor: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06176-6

Reversed Holocene temperature–moisture relationship in the Horn of Africa

Autores: A. J. Baxter, D. Verschuren, F. Peterse, D. G. Miralles, C. M. Martin-Jones, A. Maitituerdi, T. Van der Meeren, M. Van Daele, C. S. Lane, G. H. Haug, D. O. Olago, J. S. Sinninghe Damsté
Publicado en: Nature, Edición 620, 2023, Página(s) 336-343, ISSN 0028-0836
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06272-5

DRYP 1.0: a parsimonious hydrological model of DRYland Partitioning of the water balance

Autores: E. Andrés Quichimbo, Michael Bliss Singer, Katerina Michaelides, Daniel E. J. Hobley, Rafael Rosolem, Mark O. Cuthbert
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición 14/11, 2021, Página(s) 6893-6917, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-6893-2021

Budyko-Based Long-Term Water and Energy Balance Closure in Global Watersheds From Earth Observations

Autores: Akash Koppa, Sarfaraz Alam, Diego G. Miralles, Mekonnen Gebremichael
Publicado en: Water Resources Research, Edición 57, 2021, Página(s) e2020WR028658, ISSN 1944-7973
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2020wr028658

Assessing the sensitivity of modelled water partitioning to global precipitation datasets in a data‐scarce dryland region

Autores: E. A. Quichimbo, M. B. Singer, K. Michaelides, R. Rosolem, D. A. MacLeod, D.T. Asfaw, M. O. Cuthbert
Publicado en: Hydrological Processes, Edición 37, 2024, ISSN 0885-6087
Editor: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.15047

Observation-based assessment of secondary water effects on seasonal vegetation decay across Africa

Autores: Çağlar Küçük, Sujan Koirala, Nuno Carvalhais, Diego G. Miralles, Markus Reichstein, Martin Jung
Publicado en: Frontiers in Big Data, 2022, ISSN 2624-909X
Editor: Frontiers Media
DOI: 10.3389/fdata.2022.967477

Drought risk attitudes in pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Kenya

Autores: Teun Schrieks, W.J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts
Publicado en: Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Edición 108, 2024, Página(s) 102143, ISSN 2214-8043
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2023.102143

Assessing key behavioural theories of drought risk adaptation: Evidence from rural Kenya

Autores: Teun Schrieks, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Oliver V. Wasonga, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Publicado en: Risk Analysis, 2023, ISSN 1539-6924
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/risa.14266

Advances, gaps and way forward in provision of climate services over the Greater Horn of Africa

Autores: Masilin Gudoshava, George Otieno, Eunice Koech, Herbert Misiani, Jemimah Gacheru Ongoma, Claudio Heinrich-Mertsching, Calistus Wachana, Hussen Seid Endris, Anthony Mwanthi, Mary Kilavi, Emmah Mwangi, Andrew Colman, Douglas Parker, Joseph Nzau Mutemi, Paula Machio, Paulino Omoj Omay, Paul Ombai, Doreen Anande, Alfred Kondowe, Isaac Mugume, Prosper Ayabagabo, Houda Youssouf Houssein, Mahado Salah Wa
Publicado en: Frontiers in Climate, Edición 6, 2024, ISSN 2624-9553
Editor: FrontiersIn
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1307535

Conference proceedings (1)

Towards User-Centred Climate Services: the Role of Human-Computer Interaction

Autores: Rigby, J. M, Preist, C
Publicado en: CHI '23: Proceedings of the 2023 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, 2023, ISBN 978-1-4503-9421-5
Editor: Association for Computing Machinery
DOI: 10.1145/3544548.3580663