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STOrylines of futuRe extreMes

Project description

Finding global hotspots of drought-to-flood events

Scientists warn of more drought-to-flood disasters in the future due to global climate change. While droughts and floods are currently studied and managed separately, the ERC-funded PerfectSTORM project will study drought-to-flood events to improve our understanding about the underlying interactions between hydrology and society. Specifically, qualitative storylines will be collected through narrative interviews and mental simulation workshops. Quantitative storylines will be developed from a time series of hydrological and social data that will be analysed and modelled. Researchers will also study global data sets to uncover global types and hotspots of drought-to-flood events. Additionally, socio-hydrological modelling will be used to develop a 3D future possibility space.

Objective

Future climate projections show a strengthening of the hydrological cycle with more droughts and floods expected. This means a higher likelihood of cascading drought-to-flood disasters such as the Millennium Drought – Brisbane flooding in Australia or the California drought – Oroville spillway collapse in the US. Current research and management treat floods and droughts as independent, which leads to large underestimations of their future risk. Droughts allow ample time for impacts and adaptation, which influence hazard, exposure, and vulnerability of a subsequent flood. There are anecdotal examples of these events, but research is needed on the underlying interactions between hydrology and society. In the PerfectSTORM project (‘STOrylines of futuRe extreMes’), I propose to study drought-to-flood events to provide the understanding needed to prevent major disasters in the future. The innovative approach that I will develop is based on a combination of qualitative and quantitative storylines of past and future drought-to-flood risk in case studies and extrapolation of this rich case study information to the global scale. Qualitative storylines will be collected with narrative interviews and mental simulation workshops and will be edited and analysed. Quantitative storylines will be developed from timeseries of hydrological and social data that will be analysed and modelled. These storylines will then be combined in an iterative way using innovative data visualisation. A range of global datasets will be analysed to find global types and hotspots of drought-to-flood events and a global future 3D possibility space will be developed using socio-hydrological modelling. Positive pathways for future management of drought-to-flood events in different parts of the world will then be explored. The PerfectSTORM project will provide in-depth understanding of the hydrosocial feedbacks and dynamic vulnerability of cascading hazards.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

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Keywords

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Programme(s)

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Topic(s)

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Funding Scheme

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ERC-STG - Starting Grant

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) ERC-2020-STG

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Host institution

STICHTING VU
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 1 489 442,00
Address
DE BOELELAAN 1105
1081 HV Amsterdam
Netherlands

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Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 1 489 442,00

Beneficiaries (1)

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