The COMPLEXDYNAMICS-PHIM has three general work-packages covering research on vector-host-pathogens interactions, data analysis, and modelling public health intervention measures. Various sources of data, from different countries and on different time scales were accessed to validate, parametrize and test these models.
Starting from a non-seasonal model with direct transmission, seasonality and vector dynamics were added separately in order to disentangle its effects. By using parameter values obtained from empirical data (or from the literature, when data is not available), chaotic vs. simple behavior has been identified in areas where dengue viruses are co-circulating. This work is still ongoing with delay due to my involvement on COVID-19 Modeling Task Force (Basque Modeling Task Force - BMTF).
The scientific work performed was based in models on dengue fever epidemiology that have previously shown deterministic chaos in some parameter regions due to the multi-strain structure of the disease pathogen. Starting from well studied minimalistic dengue models, which have the function of a paradigmatic study system of much wider interest, extensions were added gradually to include relevant aspects of the disease epidemiology and biological aspects of the host-pathogen interactions. Disease transmission models combined with intervention measures were developed to address specific public health questions, combining knowledge about the immune components involved in the progression of the disease and the most recently information in respect to the newly licensed vaccine. From a microscopic perspective, I have developed an within-host modeling framework to describe viral clearance mediated by antibodies, exploring the impact of ADE in disease severity. Time-scale separation via center-manifold analysis was performed to investigate vector dynamics and human immunological response was also studied.
The main results achieved so far are published in refereed international journals and presented at international scientific meetings and to general public. COMPLEXDYNAMICS-PHIM counts with 20 publications so far, 7 in refereed international journals, 4 preprints, 6 abstracts published in conference proceedings and 3 edited books. Moreover, 3 manuscripts are in preparation and will be available as a preprint soon. Project results were presented internationally in conferences and courses. It is important to note that all the presential meetings scheduled in 2020 were postponed for late 2021 and 2022. The yearly International Conference DSABNS was organized three times withing the project period, attracting hundreds of participants worldwide. Moreover, a COVID-19 modeling dashboard was created during my secondment period with results published monthly, free to access by researchers and the general audience.
