Scenarios: Combined climate/land use/agronomic management scenarios will be developed for selected case study regions in the future. Using case-study urban systems located in Northern, Central and Southern regions alongside existing usage data and models and projections of future change, we will then develop emission scenarios for different chemical classes for the current situation and for 2050. Challenges of pest pressure and chemical inputs will be identified in regard to farming options in the future broken down to farm level (bottom-up approach), involving partners in the field of operational pest monitoring and warning.
Exposure: We will develop and parameterise modelling frameworks for estimating concentrations of chemicals in surface waters and drinking water and in associated food items (crops, fish and shellfish) in the future. We will explore the effects of key environmental change parameters on the sorption, persistence, uptake and metabolism ofcompounds in aquatic and soil systems. Experimental work will also explore the fate and behaviour of chemicals in water re-use systems, and use this to develop crop uptake and exposure models for wastewater re-use systems. Additionally, we will develop an exposure modelling framework for estimating exposure concentrations of emerging contaminants in river basins, drinking water for current and future conditions.
Effects: Experimental research into the effects of chemicals on aquatic populations and communities will be performed by selecting relevant combination of stress factors, and ecological models will be developed, parameterized and validated. Experimentally, we will assess how different climate-related factors affect aquatic communities to future chemical contamination. Also, a set of modelling tools will be developed to assess the influence of GC on ecosystem function and structure and its interaction with chemical stress at different levels of biological organization.
Risks and Mitigation: The risk of emerging chemicals from agricultural and urban sources will be assessed, separately and in mixtures, under current and future scenarios. A probabilistic modelling approach (Bayesian network – BN) will be applied to integrate the risk assessments with future global change scenarios, as well as with effects of mitigation measures. While the general modelling approach will be applicable for all results from ECORISK2050, specific models will be adapted risk assessment for geographic regions and specific chemical types (pesticides, urban chemicals) and for assessment of mitigation measures and backcasting.
Impacts: ECORISK2050 brings together experts from academia, industry and government agencies from across Europe. ECORISK2050 will deliver high quality training and research products that will resonate at several levels: 1) At the level of the individual researchers; 2) Within the network of ECORISK2050 partner organizations; 3) At the European level by impacting National and European policies, and 4) at the Global level by producing a cohort of highly trained risk assessment specialists and by generating novel cutting edge science to improve risk assessment and management of water resources.
